Thursday, April 2, 2009

Real Estate Intelligence Report, Thursday, April 2, 2009


China may have plus points, but India more durable option in long run: PM

China may have plus points, but India more durable option in long run: PM
The Economic Times, April 2, 2009, Page 11

Manmohan Says Stimulus Should Continue In 2010, Suggests Role For Crisis Managers

Our Political Bureau NEW DELHI

HIGHLIGHTING China’s lack of democratic credentials, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said that decisions taken in a multi-party democracy like India are more durable in the long run. Mr Singh, in an interview to a daily, said China, with its single party rule, has advantages in pushing through reforms and decisions but said that India scores over China as “a functioning democracy committed to the rule of law.”

“Our system is slow to move but I’m confident that once decisions are taken they are going to be far more durable,” Mr Singh said and gave the example of India’s economic reforms process which was initiated in 1991 but carried forward by successive governments since then.

His comments are significant as they come ahead of Thursday’s G-20 summit where all eyes are on China, which has emerged as a key player in international efforts to revive the global proceedings. In such a scenario, Mr Singh is clearly pitching India as a more “durable” option in the long run. Mr Singh said that not only is India a democracy but it also has respect for human rights, an issue over which China has continued to receive flak from all quarters.

“Democracy has its problems — it’s slow moving, the decision-making process is slow. But once decisions are taken, they are far more durable. I have every reason to believe in what is happening in India to move towards an inclusive growth path, in the framework of a democratic polity, committed to the rule of law, respect for fundamental human rights,’’ he said.

But Mr Singh also acknowledged that the Chinese system has advantages. He expressed regret over his government’s inability to push through economic reforms due to the Left. Unfazed by the Left’s argument that India has been saved from greater economic harm as reforms were not carried out, Mr Singh said that his government would have liked to move forward on certain economic reforms. “It is certainly true that we would have liked to move faster on some elements on economic reforms but politics is the art of the possible,” he said.

Mr Singh also said it was important for world economies to continue with stimulus packages till 2010. “...but it’s necessary to ensure that stimulus is sustained and maintained in the year 2010. I would suggest that these are again issues that should probably be handed to an expert crew either inside or outside the IMF so that whether each country is doing its bit — its adequacy, effectiveness — can be assessed by objective means,’’ he said.

Giving his formula for the steps needed to be taken by the world economies, Mr Singh said it is the responsibility of all major economies to come up with an agreement for “effective, credible fiscal stimulus.” He further said credit flows should be restored and a clean up operation of financial institutions should take place. “Capital flows have sharply declined. Trade credit has sharply declined. And there is a fall of export demand. The problems of emerging economies should also be taken on board,” he said

World economy to shrink 1% in 2009: IMF

World economy to shrink 1% in 2009: IMF
Financial Express, April 2, 2009, Page 2

Reuters, Madrid

The International Monetary Fund sees the world economy contracting by between 0.5 and 1% in 2009, managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in an interview published on Wednesday.

He said a recovery could come in the first two quarters of 2010. “If ... economic policies are appropriate, the recovery should come in the first two quarters of 2010,” he told Spanish newspaper El Pais. The IMF said last month in two reports prepared for a meeting of Group of 20 nations this week that the global economy will shrink as much as 1 percent this year—its first contraction since World War Two.

It forecast a gradual recovery in 2010.

Separately, Strauss-Kahn said it was possible the European Central Bank could resort to purchasing assets with newly created money to boost the money supply.

“I’m sure that, if necessary, it will not hold back, but be active against a fall in prices,” he said. With regards to Spain, Strauss-Kahn said although Spanish banks were not directly exposed to US toxic assets they had created their own. “I’m more worried about the consequences of the real estate boom on the Spanish banking system than the direct impact of US toxic assets,” he said.

He said there could be problems with some Spanish banks needing government help although the system overall was healthy. Spain on Sunday launched its first bank rescue of the global financial crisis to prevent solvency problems at unlisted savings bank Caja Castilla la Mancha (CCM).

Spanish banks’ capital and liquidity levels are being worn down by limited access to money markets and soaring debt defaults during Spain’s recession.

'India in much better position to weather the slowdown compared to other countries'

'India in much better position to weather the slowdown compared to other countries'
The Financial Express, April 2, 2009, Page 4

The new president of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) Venu Srinivasan, the chairman and managing director TVS Motor feels that economy, infrastructure and governance are the three areas that need immediate focus to bring the economy back to shape. He is optimistic about the recovery of Indian economy and believes that the economy should start picking up by October this year. With FE’s Neha Pal and Yogima Seth, the CII chief shares his thoughts on the automobile sector and the impact of the Supreme Court’s order on the repossession of vehicles

What are your expectations from G-20 summit?

I am not sure of the outcome of G-20 but the discussion will hover around protectionism, sinking world trade and developing countries like China disbursing funds for the developed countries.

My expectation from G-20 is that the summit zeroes down on steps to stabilise the economies so that the international trade gets back to normal health. Controlling protectionism is also important as it is one of the biggest hindrance in the growth and development of the overall economy.

Will the government’s stimulus package prove effective in bringing the economy back to shape?

In December and January, the stimulus packages were announced and the economy has already started showing signs of improvement in February. These packages will have a positive impact on the Indian economy because India is still in a much better position compared to other countries and we expect around 5% growth this year.

How long do you think the economy would take to recover from the financial slowdown?

We are expecting the recovery process to start in 6 months. The period of October 2009 to March 2010 should witness a higher growth rate viz a viz the first half of this year.


The ministry of corporate affairs has issued its notification on ‘relief from the provisions of AS-11’? What is your take on this?

We are happy on the AS 11 issue getting resolved and welcome this decision taken by the government. Being an industry body, we had earlier stated that AS 11 issue needs to be resolved because the industry was facing a tough time in terms of the losses incurred on the foreign exchange transactions and with this new move, India Inc will definitely get a respite.

Being an auto player what do you want do you have to say on the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on the repossession of vehicles?

In this context, there is a need to define the concept of ‘default’ and there is a need to involve a legal authority in the process of ‘repossessing’. For instance, in some other countries, the police is the concerned authority to execute the task of repossession. The consumers should also realize that if an efficient system is not put in place, the banks may stop lending.

What is CII’s agenda for the year 2008-09?

We have three focus areas this year—stabilizing the economy, infrastructure and governance.

Our concern is on capital formation this year. While agriculture is continuing to grow, the recent figures of the index of industrial production (IIP) have not been encouraging. For the Indian industry to grow, the government should take certain steps like issuing less bonds to ensure greater liquidity in market, monetization of fiscal deficit among others. We also feel that the repo and reverse repo rate should be cut by another 50 basis points. The cost of land and building is 15% higher in India than in our neighbouring country China. We cannot be competitive as an economy unless we don’t improve our infrastructure.

Do you have any plan in mind to improve the condition of job-loss in the country?

It is unfortunate but true that in India, there are no accurate figures about the job-loss but we can definitely work with the government in giving a boost to the economy because employment generation is a direct byproduct of economic-growth. We need to focus on the skill-development programmes and we are working with the policy-makers on this area.

What measures would you prescribe to get the economy back into the growth gear?

While IT, telecom, hotels have immensely contributed to the growth process but the fact remains that if one aims for real growth, then inclusive growth is a must. In China, the government gives land to the industry. Our government should also give industrial parks at much affordable rates. China in the last few years has built several new cities and even in our country, there needs to be a proper planning in infrastructure. Without this we cannot aspire to be a strong economy. The construction process of national highways has slowed down and even the airports and sea ports are important investments that are required to push-up the growth in the country .

Gartner sees IT spends decline, India to be hit

Gartner sees IT spends decline, India to be hit
The Financial Express – Corporates & Markets, April 2, 2009, PVIII

fe Bureaus, Mumbai

Indian IT firms will be adversely affected as worldwide IT spend is likely to dip further in 2009. According to Gartner, worldwide IT spending was forecast to total $3.2 trillion in 2009, a 3.8% decline from 2008 revenue of nearly $3.4 trillion. According to a report from the research firm, global IT spending will average 2.79% annual growth from 2008 through 2013. All key four segments of hardware, software, IT services and telecommunications will be experiencing a slowdown. However, software spending growth will remain somewhat positive at 0.3%, while hardware will be the worst hit, witnessing a decline of 14.9%. As IT services is likely to see a decline of 1.7% worldwide, it is expected that the Indian IT firms will be impacted in more ways than one.

“Indian IT firms are already hit and with further decline in IT spend globally, there will be further impact on their revenues. The pay cycle will become longer. Moreover, it might lead to cancellation of projects,” said Diptarup Chakraborti, principal research analyst at Gartner. “However, the mid-tier companies will be impacted in a greater way,” he added. According to analysts, with declining IT spending it will be difficult for companies to enter new markets and newer geographies. “IT firms are looking at newer markets, with reducing IT spends that would become difficult, and the IT firms have to pick and choose the markets keeping in mind the return on investments from those regions,” said Diptarup.Moreover, a worldwide declining IT spend might also affect the job scenario. According to analysts, performance tracking will get stringent and in a worst case scenario there could be retrenchment of jobs. According to Forrester, the purchase of IT products and services by US companies may decline 3.1% in 2009, as against its earlier projection of a 1.6% increase.

“The US recession keeps getting worse. Computer equipment purchases will continue to bear the brunt of cutbacks in tech investment, but purchases of network equipment, software licenses, and IT consulting services will also drop,” said the Forrester report.

FIIs take home Rs 48k cr in ’08-09

FIIs take home Rs 48k cr in ’08-09
The Times of India, April 2, 2009, Page 19

TIMES NEWS NETWORK

Chennai: Fiscal 2008-09, which ended on Tuesday, saw FIIs taking out a whopping Rs 47,706 crore from the Indian stock market — that's around 90% of the Rs 53,000 plus crore invested by them in fiscal 2007-08. This was the first time in over five years that FIIs, the largest force in Indian stock markets, turned out to be net-sellers on fiscal basis i.e March to April. The trend doesn't look encouraging as the foreign investors have taken out another Rs 530 crore in the first day of the new fiscal 2009-10, as per provisional Sebi data.

Even though FIIs stepped up investments in last phase of the previous fiscal buying close to Rs 3,000 crore, after being in sell-mode for most part of the year, the sheer amount of stocks liquidated made them the biggest sellers of equity. FIIs made purchases of Rs 5.55 lakh crore starting April 1 2008 but by the close of the fiscal, had sold Rs 6.03 lakh crore. The effect: the BSE Sensex lost nearly 37% or 5,500 points in the same period.

In all the previous years, such as 2006-07 FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 53,404 crore. FIIs were net buyers in 2006-07 (Rs 25,236 crore), 2005-06 (Rs 48,800 crore), 2004-05 (Rs 44,121 crore) and 2003-04 (Rs 39,959 crore), Sebi data shows. While FIIs invest all through the market, a significant portion of funds were invested helped the benchmark index gain 21 to 45 % in these fiscals.

Sensex starts ’09-10 with 193 pts gain

Mumbai: Dalal Street started the new financial year on a positive note. With real estate, oil & gas and IT stocks rallying, the BSE sensex inched closer to the five-digit mark again and ended at 9,902, up 193 points on the day. Institutional dealers said strong buying from domestic institutional investors, mainly the insurance companies which are flush with funds, led to a smart recovery for the market from early losses. They expect these investors to continue to pump in money into the stock market.

For Thursday, market players expect some profit taking ahead of the three-day weekend because of a trading holiday on Friday. Dealers feel given the market uncertainties within the country as well as outside, not many will be interested to keep positions open and Thursday could witness some profit taking after two consecutive sessions of rise. TNN

Inventory levels coming down

Inventory levels coming down
The Times of India, April 2, 2009, Page 19

Recovery Signs: With Revival In Demand, Companies Boost Production

Namrata Singh TNN

Mumbai: A sense of feel-good seems to be returning to key industry sectors like steel, cement and textiles, if diminishing inventory levels are anything to go by. The sectors which witnessed a severe liquidity crunch in the December quarter, leading up to February this year, are now breathing easy. Not only are inventory levels back to normal, but demand generation has also prompted companies to raise their production levels.

The inventory levels at JSW Steel, for instance, have come down from a peak of one month, in November-December, to two-and-a-half weeks. The company's production is up 40% from December levels. "Demand is far better than what it was in the December quarter. Easing of credit after the government's stimuli packages, has clearly helped," said Seshagiri Rao, finance director, JSW Steel. Steel demand rides mainly on growth in infrastructure and auto. While auto, which contributes 15% of the total steel demand, is still to reach a full bloom, a good growth is being witnessed in the construction activity in rural and semi-urban sectors.

This is also the reason why the cement sector is looking up. ‘‘Inventory levels have come down considerably and despatches are higher. Demand generation has come mainly from government agencies which have lifted cement stocks in bulk before the close of the financial year,'' said H M Bangur, managing director, Shree Cement.

Demand has been bolstered by land prices coming down in the rural and semi-urban areas, enabling affordable housing. ‘‘We are expecting an annual growth of 8.5% for 2008-09,'' said Bangur. The story in textiles is no different. Normalcy is said to have returned to the inventory position of the industry both, in domestic sales and exports. Working capital has freed up with the choke in the trade channel coming off.

‘‘It is true that industry situation has eased and the pace is back. There is a general feeling of positivity. And, if a stable government is formed, the industry would show good growth by September,'' said R K Dalmia, president, Century Textiles. Inventory levels had risen by 20% in October-November. Considering that uptil February, the situation was adverse for the textile sector, it is expected to post a marginal growth of 1-2% in 2008-09.

Investments in projects rising

Rajesh Chandramouli TNN

Chennai: Amidst all the gloom and doom hitting India Inc, a glimmer of hope is now visible with CMIE saying that in January-March 2009, project investments rose to a robust Rs 8.13 lakh crore, nearly double the Rs 4.24 lakh crore recorded in corresponding quarter of previous year.

Project investments, as classified by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), are the total of all new investment projects added during the quarter as per its survey on investment projects. These projects were either announced or proposed or were under various stages of implementation.

Now, realtors get serious with sops

Now, realtors get serious with sops
Business Standard, April 2, 2009, Page 5

Cement prices go up by Rs 7 per bag

Cement prices go up by Rs 7 per bag
The Economic Times, April 2, 2009, Page 10
ACC, Ambuja, Grasim, Ultratech Raise Prices

Mithun Roy MUMBAI

BUOYED by an improved demand, cement makers have raised prices by Rs 3-7 per 50-kg bag across the country from Wednesday. With this, the retail cement prices have gone up to Rs 260 a bag. Big players such as ACC, Ambuja Cements, Grasim and Ultratech have communicated about the price hike to the dealers. Others like Binani will follow suit this week while a few firms such as Shree Cement will take a call shortly.

The country’s largest cement maker ACC has increased prices by Rs 7 per bag while the thirdlargest cement maker Ambuja has hiked it by Rs 3 a bag. Aditya Birla Group companies — Grasim Industries and Ultratech Cement—have raised it by Rs 5-7 per bag, said dealers.

Ambuja Cements’ marketing head Ajay Kapur told ET: “The rise in cement prices were due to escalation of demand from rural market and government projects." Top officials of ACC and Grasim Industries have declined to comment on the price hike. Vinod Juneja, managing director of Binani Cement said his company would increase prices from this week. "In Delhi, Lucknow, Chandigarh, Haryana, we are increasing Rs 3 per bag whereas in Gujarat, Mumbai and Maharashtra, the hike will be Rs 5 a bag," he said. Shailendra Chouksey, Whole Time Director, J K Lakshmi Cement said hike of Rs 3 has been implemented from Wednesday as J K Lakshmi dispatches up 20% in March over corresponding month last year.

HM Bangur, president of the Cement Manufacturers' Association and managing director of Shree Cement, said: "We will take a call in next few days though demand is still high.”

Cement analysts don't foresee prices to soften in the short run. In the long term, however, they expect prices to fall, as new capacities come up for production. The outlook for the first quarter of FY10 looks better than what it was a year ago and expects 8% incremental growth in the current fiscal, analysts added.

Sumit Banerjee, managing director of ACC, had told ET last week: "Prices need to go up to Rs 300 per bag because current prices do not support ACC's plans to invest in creating new capacities. It will not be easy for us to go ahead with our future expansion plans beyond 2011."

Cement demand has gone up in March. For example, Aditya Birla Group's shipment in March rose 11.2% to 3.37 million tonnes yearon-year while the growth is marginal (0.5%) to 1.72 million tonnes for Ambuja Cements. India has more than 70 cement companies and a total installed capacity of 200 million tonnes.