Monday, November 16, 2009

Real Estate Intelligence Service, Monday, November 16, 2009


World economy on recovery path: Obama

World economy on recovery path: Obama
The Times of India, November 16, 2009, Page 19

AGENCIES 16 November 2009,

SINGAPORE: US President Barack Obama said on Sunday the world economy was on a path to recovery but warned that failure to re-balance the global economic system would lead to further crises.

Obama was addressing Asia Pacific leaders in Singapore, where officials removed any reference to market-oriented exchange rates in a communique after disagreement between Washington and Beijing over the most sensitive topic between the two giants.

The statement from the Apec forum endorsed stimulus measures to keep the global economy from sliding back into recession and urged a successful conclusion to the Doha Round of trade talks in 2010.

Obama told Apec leaders the world could not return to the same cycles of boom and bust that sparked the global recession recently. "We cannot follow the same policies that led to such imbalanced growth. If we do, we will continue to drift from crisis to crisis, a failed path that has already had devastating consequences for our citizens, our businesses, and our governments," Obama said.

"We have reached one of those rare inflection points in history where we have the opportunity to take a different path to pursue a new strategy for jobs and growth. Growth that is balanced. Growth that is sustainable." Obama's strategy calls for America to save more, spend less and reform its financial system.

Obama calls for new strategy to rebalance world economy

Obama calls for new strategy to rebalance world economy
The Hindu Business Line, November 15, 2009, Page 4

The US President Barack Obama called on Saturday for a new strategy to rebalance global growth, but leaders around the Pacific rim, gathering for a weekend summit, took aim at signs of US trade protectionism.

Obama, who was due to arrive in Singapore late on Saturday for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, reiterated his call to redress the economic imbalances blamed by many for the global financial crisis.

The strategy calls for America to save more, spend less, reform its financial system and cut its deficits and borrowing.

“It will also mean a greater emphasis on exports that we can produce, and sell all over the world,” Obama said in a speech in Tokyo, his first stop on a nine-day Asian tour before leaving for Singapore. “We simply cannot return to the same cycles of boom and bust that led us into a global recession.”

Fresh government figures on the US trade deficit, which ballooned by more than 18% to $36.5 billion in September, could add urgency to Obama’s efforts to seek greater export opportunities in China and other Asian countries.

But leaders of APEC, a 21-member grouping accounting for more than half of all global output and 40% of world trade, called on the United States to show leadership on free trade, especially in jump-starting the Doha round of global talks.

A row between two APEC members, Peru and Chile, soured the mood just as the summit was getting under way on Saturday.

Peru said it would leave Singapore early after recalling its envoy from Chile over charges a Peruvian military officer had spied for the Chilean government. The spying charges emerged as tensions between the South American neighbours ran high over a maritime border dispute.

The APEC meeting is the last major gathering of global decision-makers before a UN climate summit in Copenhagen in three weeks meant to ramp up efforts to fight climate change.

However, the latest draft of a final statement showed that they had watered down their text on emissions cuts, dropping a reference to reductions of 50% by 2050, pledging instead to “substantially” cut carbon pollution by 2050.

Sniping at Washington

Although Obama proclaimed his faith in open markets, the sniping of regional leaders ahead of his arrival underlined the challenge he faces to convince them it’s more than lip service.

After taking office in January, the US president focused first on a huge stimulus to the economy and then on a domestic agenda that so far has included little attention to trade.
No end is in sight for the Doha trade round, now eight years old, despite pledges by Obama and others to get a deal by 2010.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon, singling out Washington for trends “going in the opposite sense of free trade”, said protectionism was a major threat to the global economic recovery.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who followed Calderon to the podium, made the same point.
In Mexico’s neighbour the United States, “the old wrong idea of protectionism” was emerging in Congress and among other policymakers, Calderon said, citing as an example increasing “buy American” clauses in US legislation.

US inaction on trade is giving China and Asia an opening to forge trade agreements amongst themselves, said C Fred Bergsten, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“There is a lot of activity in the region and this is all in the absence of US engagement. What the Asians are hoping is that with this trip, Obama will begin the process of re-engaging with Asian in economic terms.”

Calling himself “America’s first Pacific President”, the Hawaii-born Obama signalled a commitment to the region, but with no new specifics on how to re-invigorate his trade agenda.

He in fact missed the summit’s first day of business, after delaying his departure for Asia to attend a memorial service for soldiers killed in a mass shooting at a US military base.
Other leaders have taken advantage of the spotlight to take veiled or even direct pot shots at the world’s biggest economy.

Chinese President Hu Jintao helped set the tone, saying Beijing had done its part to lead the world out of recession but had been hit by trade probes and protectionist barriers.

Stick with Stimulus

However, China’s policy of pegging the yuan currency to a weakening dollar -- which make Chinese exports comparatively cheaper -- has also come under fire at the meeting. Obama has said he will raise the issue on a visit next week to China.

Aside from endorsing further moves toward free trade, the 21 leaders of APEC will agree to stick with economic stimulus policies until “a durable economic recovery has clearly taken hold”, according to the draft declaration.

Inflation rate rises on costlier food, fuels

Inflation rate rises on costlier food, fuels
Hindu Business Line, November 15, 2009, Page 3

First monthly report shows Wholesale Price Index doubling to 1.34%.

Our Bureau, New Delhi

In an ominous start to the Government’s first monthly release of prices report, the Wholesale Price Index-based inflation in October rose to 1.34 per cent, more than double from the previous month, as minerals, fuels and certain food items became expensive.

While inflation in October was 1.34 per cent from the year earlier period, it was only 0.5 per cent in September, according to the data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Saturday. In October 2008, inflation was 11.06 per cent.

Thanks to the stimulus packages and the festival demand, industrial output recorded an unexpectedly high growth of 9.1 per cent in September from a year earlier. This industrial recovery has led to speculation of the government exiting stimulus packages. Analysts now expect the Reserve Bank of India to increase borrowing costs by January. Notably, the WPI has jumped by 6.13 per cent since the beginning of this fiscal in April. Also, the Consumer Price Index that accords a higher weightage to food and essential items was as high as 11.72 per cent in September.

In a bid to give a more accurate picture of the price movements, the Government shifted on Saturday to the monthly release of inflation data for all commodities with 1993-94 as the base year. Earlier, the Government used to bring out inflation data every week.

Potato prices have doubled in October from the same month last year, while onions were dearer by 37.6 per cent. Vegetables were costlier by 17 per cent, pulses (23 per cent), sugar (45.7 per cent) and rice (13.22 per cent) and wheat (6.88 per cent). Nomura economist Ms Sonal Varma said, “Prices of some vegetables have declined in the first two weeks of November and therefore we might see a decline in food price soon.” Food prices fell by 1 per cent in October over September, while prices of vegetables declined by 17 per cent. But minerals were dearer by 3 per cent during the same period, while onions turned expensive by 30 per cent and potatoes 11.18 per cent. Ms Varma said inflation could touch eight per cent by March 2010 with crude prices picking up again. “Prices of manufactured products are likely to go up due to increase in input costs.

“We expect interest rate hikes to start from January 2010 onwards. Recent statements by the RBI show that the central bank is concerned about inflation. There could also be some liquidity tightening measures before that,” Ms Varma said. Last moth, the RBI raised its projection of WPI-based inflation to 6.5 per cent with an upward bias by March-end 2010, from the earlier 5 per cent.

Realty ad budget mounts as demand picks up

Realty ad budget mounts as demand picks up
The Financial Express, November 14, 2009, Page 4

Kakoly Chatterjee, New Delhi

With demand slowly picking up in real estate and more project launches taking place, the spend on advertisement has gone up for most companies in the sector like DLF, Parsvnath and Ansals.

The country’s largest real estate firm DLF has already spent around Rs 3 crore during the first half of this year. It has spent Rs 40 crore during the tenure of IPL II. Ansal is planning to spend around Rs 3 crore on advertising revenue during the second half of this year. Parsvanath is planning to spend a similar amount during the second half of this year.

With the upturn in the real estate sector and more project launches taking place adspends are likely to go up for the real estate sector. “Compared to last year, we have increased our adspend by 15% during the first half of this financial year,” Rajeev Talwar, group executive director, DLF, said. During the tenure of Indian Premiere League (IPL), DLF spends around Rs 40 crore in TV advertisements.

Ansal and Parsvnath are in the process of launching around six new housing projects each in the next couple of months. The former has a presence in office space and is also planning to develop offices in Gurgaon.

All these developers have a slew of launches lined up for the next few months at affordable prices. Ansal is setting up Europa apartments in Panipat which will be in the range of Rs 10 lakh to Rs 25 lakh, and Santushi Enclave in Lucknow which will be in the range of Rs 12 lakh to Rs 15 lakh. It also plans development in Karnal in the range of Rs 10.5 lakh to Rs 24.5 lakh, group housing in Karnal in the range of Rs 25 lakh to Rs 35 lakh, plotted development in Gurgaon in the range of Rs 40 lakh to Rs 1.5 crore and an un-named project in Meerut.

“Currently, we have started spending on advertisements for our existing projects as well as for our new projects,” Anil Kumar, CEO of Ansal said.

For Parsvnath, majority of its portfolio consists of residential development and a smaller part consists of retail development. While the latter is completely on hold for now, it is planning new launches all over India.

Like most developers who are playing safe, Parsvnath is also launching affordable housing. These include group housing in Rohtak in the range of Rs 25 lakh to Rs 50 lakh, in Lucknow in the range of Rs 25 lakh to Rs 50 lakh, in Karnal in the range of Rs 25 lakh to Rs 50 lakh.

With real estate revival in sight, corporate housing gains ground

With real estate revival in sight, corporate housing gains ground
The Financial Express, November 14, 2009, Page 4

Mona Mehta, Mumbai

With the real estate market showing clear signs of an upturn, corporate housing projects by top builders have started gaining momentum across cities such as Gurgaon, Mumbai, Panvel, Alibaug, Pune and Bangalore.

According to industry experts, this trend is catching up as companies now seek to offer more amenities to its employees. In fact, corporates have started to set up offices in tier II cities as the cost of operations are lower than in metros.

According to Raminder Grover, chief executive officer (Homebay Residential), Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (JLLM), “There is immense potential for corporate housing, serviced apartments and guest houses in business districts and suburbs of metros. The demand largely stems from the information technology, ITeS, BPO, KPO segments. There is also demand from expatriates, diplomats, traveling executives and tourism.”

The new genre of corporate housing has emerged as a cost-effective alternative for corporates, business travelers, tourists, expatriates and families. Gurgaon, Mumbai and Pune are markets that are actively working on this concept, Grover added. Bangalore-based Nitesh Estates recently executed a 5.73 acre corporate housing project worth Rs 100 crore for ITC in Bangalore. L S Vaidyanathan, executive director, Nitesh Estates, told FE, “This has helped us gain confidence in implementing large developments and we are actively looking at increasing this portfolio.”

Meanwhile, Shapoorji Pallonji recently acquired 300 acres close to Nippon Denro Ispat plant in Alibaug for residential and commercial development for corporates, according to company sources.

Besides, a Rs 100 crore project for Mahindra & Mahindra in Goregaon near Mumbai comprises a 23-floor building and is being developed by a group company.

The project has close to 144 apartments and is likely to be completed over the next two years. Phase 1 is ready.

Samira Habitat has started developing two corporate housing projects in Panvel and Alibaug. Investment banking firm Edelweiss too is understood to be setting up back-end office and a call centre in Alibaug for which it is currently scouting for builders for developing corporate housing for them.

As for the synergies between corporates and developers, Anand Narayanan, residential director of Knight Frank India Pvt Ltd, said corporates which have large cash surplus find residential assets more attractive than liquid investments.

MFs Dating Their Old Flame

MFs Dating Their Old Flame
The Economic Times, ET Investor’s Guide, November 16, 2009, Page 19

Has the real estate sector found a way back into the MF industry? With the market bouncing back, it seems so

SU P R IYA VER MA M I SH R A ET INTELLIGENCE GROU P

THE equity markets recovering from their lows of Jan ’08, so has the perception of the notorious real estate sector, which is finding its way back to the portfolios of a number of mutual funds, wealthy individuals and portfolio management schemes. Almost all funds have started to invest some portion of their equity portfolios in the stocks of listed real estate companies. At the end of September, mutual funds had invested Rs 1,564 crore in real estate stocks, about 1% of their total assets under management (AUM).

THE PAST:

When the stock market tanked in 2008 and there was a major liquidity crunch in the economy, realty developers were the worst hit as all of them had launched a number of new projects with borrowed funds. As economic growth slowed and job losses mounted, demand for the residential as well commercial real estate space declined. Between April and July ’08, there were virtually no new sales coming.

This resulted in mutual funds offloading whole chunks of realty stocks from their portfolios. In fact some, such as Principal Mutual Fund, Mirae Assets and Canara Robeco are still shying away from the real estate sector. However with economic growth picking up pace and equity markets rising, fund houses are again moving towards this high-growth, highrisk business.

Starting early this year, funds like Birla Sun Life, Kotak, Fidelity and others have been scouting around for good bets in realty sector. However, Reliance Mutual Fund probably has a contrarian view as it is the only fund that has been continuously selling real estate stocks since May this year. Its investments in the sector stood at Rs 10 crore in April ’09. It jumped 23 times in just about a month to Rs 230 crore, and it was at Rs 129 crore at the end of Sept ’09.

THE DATA CARD:

Of all the funds, Sundaram BNP has invested the maximum amount in realty stocks, at Rs 259 crore, or 4% of its total AUM. Morgan Stanley’s exposure to the sector, which is at Rs 163 crore, makes up 7% of its AUM. Unitech accounts for almost half of the value of its real estate holding.

It is not only the bigger players like DLF, Unitech, and HDIL that are preferred for investments. Middle rung companies like Phoenix Mills, Mahindra Lifespaces and Anant Raj Industries have also found favour with a lot of fund managers in the last 5-6 months. For some of them it was subscription to their qualified institutional offers, while for others it was their fundamentals that were convincing enough. For instance, Unitech has seen about Rs 255 crore being pumped from May ’09 to now. Funds like Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, Sundaram BNP Paribas, IDFC, DSP BlackRock and Birla Sunlife were the top investors. Similarly DLF received a total of Rs 264 crore in fund money in the last five months. Again it was the likes of Fidelity, DSP BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and HSBC among others that invested.

OUTLOOK:

As the sector valuations have corrected to a large extent, a lot of companies have become attractive investment avenues. The fact that demand returned and developers were able to sell a lot of residential units shows that normalcy is coming back. If developers do not embark on price increases, it is likely that the sector could sustain this momentum and mutual funds could become more confident of increasing their exposure to the sector.

Re-launches deconstructed

Re-launches deconstructed
Hindustan Times, HT Estates, November 16, 2009, Page 1

Years ago there was a boom in the realty market and prices cracked the `reasonable' ceiling and spiralled skywards -- with no correction in sight. No matter how much an apartment cost, there always seemed to be a buyer for it. And so we saw the launch of some grand projects promising untold luxuries to buyers: Lakes, golf courses, spas... the more money you put, the grander was the lifestyle promised.

Then came the slowdown and people stopped buying -lay low and battened down the hatches.

Suddenly, `luxury' was out of style. Worried about unsold stock and about cobwebs gathering in plush apartments, many builders reworked their action plans when the `affordability' idea injected a fresh dose of life in the realty market.

"Top developers of the capital have re-launched most of their stalled projects over the last two years. Construction activity in these projects will help better consumer sentiments and have a positive effect on the market. Plus, a new opportunity opens for buyers. They can now buy into projects where possession may happen in 12-24 months and at attractive rates," says Prashant Kaura, founder and director of the real estate adviser GenReal.

The reasons There are many reasons for re-launches, says Navin Raheja, MD, Raheja Developers. "First, many developers with stock left in a particular project for the last one-and-a-half years couldn't sell because of the slowdown. Now, when the market is picking up, they will try and dispose it to get some liquidity. Secondly, some developers got extra FAR, which give them the opportunity to construct more. So, extension permission has been granted to them by the government." Pricing, too, is an issue.

"Some of the developers try to sell a project at a price which is not accepted by buyers so they (the developers) re-launch the same product in another package and at a lower price. We are also thinking of re-launching the Raheja Navodaya at Sector 92, Gurgaon. We have almost 6 lakh sq ft of space that will be up for grabs after the relaunch," adds Raheja.

A top developer examining the likelihood of re-launches is DLF. "We have got permission to increase the height (of the buildings) and so we are likely to re-launch Park Place and Belaire (in Gurgaon). We expect that it will bring 1000-plus units to the market. We believe that the re-launch phenomenon will help bring more supply.

Supply is also trickling in as demand picks up. Prices in the real estate market will stabilise not only in the primary but also in the secondary market. So, in a way, relaunches will help stabilise the prices and also revitalise the real estate sector," says Sanjay Roy, official spokesperson, DLF.

The slowdown in the real estate market affected developers who did not have the advantage of location and pricing, which DLF enjoys, says Roy. "If you have a good project in one of the best locations, your pricing is right and backed with the developer's market rapport then it will sell as there is no dearth of buyers in the market," he adds.

A number of top developers have re-launched projects in Bangalore, Mumbai and Delhi-NCR. Plans are afoot now to re-launch what used to be a swank luxury project on the Noida Expressway as an integrated township with high-rise apartments, villas and developed plots. Another luxury project in Bangalore's Electronic City is also being re-launched. Apartments there, which initially sold in the range of Rs 40 lakh to Rs 72 lakh, were re-launched and sold in the range of Rs 20 lakh to Rs 27 lakh.

Though a re-launch is not a new trend, "it is a welcome move if the demands of the old buyers are met to their satisfaction," says Raheja. "During the boom, even after repeated advice, many developers launched projects at irrational rates. Those rates would have been unviable in a booming market also -- even if there had been no slowdown. Now that the rates have rationalised, the developers have realised that they need to price the product reasonably to generate buyer interest," he adds.

The positives and negatives The re-launch of hitherto pending projects will have both positive and negative effects on the sector. "On the positive side, end-users who had booked units in these projects will finally get possession, and the fence-sitters will have a larger selection to choose from. The completion of deferred projects will increase market competitiveness and exert either a downward or stabilising pressure on rates in the applicable locations. On the downside, there is a possibility of oversupply in some locations," says Karun Varma, managing director - Bangalore, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj.

"However, though one expects buyers to find projects at more rational rates in good locations, it can only be hoped that the developers don't drastically reduce the quality of the product," Kaura adds.

CERTIFICATE COURSE IN REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT

Target Group: Any person associated with real estate and housing development and marketing business such as Real Estate Agents, Sales Persons, Commercial and Customer Care Executives and Direct Sales Agents and Home Loan Agents including fresher who want to take up these businesses.

Venue: Human Settlement Management Institute (HSMI), Research and Training Division of HUDCO, HUDCO House, Behind Lodhi Hotel, Lodhi Road, New Delhi – 110003.

Certificate: Certificate will be issued jointly by NAREDCO, HSMI & GGSIPU.

Course: 1) 5th January 2010 to 18th January 2010.
Duration & Time: Three weeks (4 days a week – Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday - 200 P.M. to 5.30 PM).

Last date for nomination: First cum first serve basis (Registration is on first cum, first served basis)

Course Background

The certificate course is a collaborative initiative of National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO), Human Settlement Management Institute (HSMI) of Housing and Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO) and Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University (GGSIPU) for real estate agents, property brokers, sales persons, commercial and customer care executives and sales and home loan agents working any where in India.

Transactions in the real estate market are primarily linked through sales persons and brokers. Brokerage activities relate to selling, leasing, renting, managing, lending, soliciting and negotiating in return for compensation. Property transactions over the years have become very specialized and complex. Therefore, it is necessary for brokers and sales persons to acquire specialized knowledge of property laws and market operations. Further, brokerage practices in India need to be regulated through a code of conduct developed by NAREDCO.

Course Objective

To impart specialized knowledge and skills to real estate agents, sales persons and direct sale and home loan agents in real estate principles, property laws, financial appraisal, brokerage and professional conduct.

The participants would acquire the requisite functional skills and practically apply the concepts internalized from the course. They will be benefited by a sound understanding of the real estate sector as also equipped to advise the clients confidently, thereby meeting their expectations. The certificate would give them greater acceptability in the market which is dominated by fly-by-night operators and unscrupulous practitioners operating in a climate of distrust. Under the circumstances, the customers would prefer to deal with NAREDCO certified sales agents as against those who are not. This shall lead to an improved climate for ethical dealings which will give a fillip to the real estate sector.

Methodology

This programme is structured as a professional interaction between the faculty and the participants in a problem-solving manner. The experience of participants is perceived as an essential professional input into the programme. With this in view, the participants are expected to bring with them the necessary reference material and documented field experiences. The key component of methodology shall include lectures, group work, exercises, interaction with resource persons, audio-visual based presentations, and discussions.

Course Content

The course content shall include the key components of the subject area namely:

· Brokerage – Concepts & various issues namely ethics and professional code of conduct. Responsibilities of a broker-buying/selling/leasing/renting process. Effective management of the transactions. Real estate contracts (Provisions)-lease agreement, agreement to sell, transactions relating to NRIs, title search of the property. Documentation required in transactions of sale/purchase/lease. Registration of documents. Basic understanding of the revenue records maintained by Municipal Corporation. Closing transactions; negotiation skills.

· Real Estate Financing – namely real estate financing process, procuring and closing a loan, mortgages, foreclosure laws (NHB Act etc), lending practices, procedures and documentation as required by financial institutions and banks.

·Real Estate Appraisal – Theoretical concepts, principles and criteria for valuation of property, market behavioral trends in real estate.

·Planning, Zoning and Development – General understanding in planning, zoning, sub-division of land. Relevant provisions and rules for sub-division. Planning standards and norms as applicable to the Housing and Construction industry. Basic understanding of standard construction practices inclusive of efficient planning, suitable building materials and sound construction. Management of Buildings and Complexes. Knowledge of building materials/technologies.

· Legal Framework including various acts and procedures - namely Apartment Ownership Act, Indian Registration Act, 1908, Stamp Act, Co-operative Societies Act, Rent Control Act, Wealth Tax Act, Building bye-laws, The Punjab Schedule Roads and Controlled Areas Restriction of Unregulated Development Act, Consumer Protection Act, 1986, Law of Contract, Municipal Laws, Law of Agency, Relevant sections related properties-income tax act & FEMA, RBI guidelines for property investment.

· Escrows – Introduction to the escrow concept.

·Urban Infrastructure – Development approaches such as public-private partnerships, social infrastructure-responsibilities and accountability.

· Business Management – including marketing techniques, dynamics of customer satisfaction, communication skills, personality development, after sale service etc.

· Vaastu Shastra - Approach in design of buildings.

·Seismic effects and protection in building construction.

Medium of Instruction

The programme shall be conducted in ENGLISH.

Who can do the course?

The certificate course is open for Real Estate Agents, Sales Persons, Commercial and Customer Care Executives associated with Developers and Builders and Direct Sales Agents and Home Loan Agents associated with Housing Finance Institutions and Banks, working any where in India, and for persons who are keen to adopt this profession. The minimum qualification for eligibility is 10+2 or equivalent and the person should be 18 years of age. The programme is open to both men and women.

Course Fees

The course fee per participant is Rs. 11,000/- (Eleven Thousand Only). A bank draft of Rs. 11,000/- (Eleven Thousand Only) drawn in favour of “National Real Estate Development Council”, New Delhi along with the nomination form will be sent to NAREDCO to reach before the closing date of registration.