Friday, September 11, 2009
Recession is receding: US
Recession is receding: US
Hindustan Times, HT Business, September 11, 2009, Page 21
The recession is ending and the US economy is finally growing again.
That’s the message implicit in the Federal Reserve’s latest survey of businesses around the country, which found economic activity stabilising or improving in most regions. Economists warn the expansion is fragile and will have staying power only if consumers start spending more money. Rising unemployment that keeps Americans cautious could make for a plodding recovery in the months ahead.
The Labour Department will report on Thursday the number of new jobless claims filed last week, which could indicate whether the incipient recovery is slowing the pace of layoffs. Wall Street economists expect that first-time claims for unemployment insurance benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 560,000 from 570,000 the previous week, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
Economists closely watch initial claims, which are considered a gauge of layoffs and an indication of companies’ willingness to hire new workers.
While the figures are volatile, first-time claims have trended downward in recent months. Initial claims topped 600,000 for most of this year, until falling below that level in early July. The total number of people receiving benefits, meanwhile, is expected to drop by about 30,000 to 6.2 million. The figures on so-called continuing claims lag initial claims by a week. All but one of the Fed’s 12 regions, meanwhile, indicated economic activity either was “stable,” showed “signs of stabilisation” or had “firmed,” according to the Fed’s survey.
Businesses in most Fed regions said they were "cautiously positive" about the economic road ahead. The survey, known as the Beige Book, does not include precise figures.
The survey’s findings will figure into discussions when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues meet September 22-23. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates at record lows, probably for some time, to help nurture the recovery.
We’ve pulled economy back
US President Barack Obama said the “bold and decisive” steps taken by his administration has pulled US economy back from the brink.
“This nation was facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. We were losing an average of 700,000 jobs per month. Credit was frozen. And our financial system was on the verge of collapse,” Obama told the US Congress wherein he called for health care reforms.
Admitting that a full and vibrant recovery was still many months away, the President vowed to continue with the steps to strengthen the economy.
Expansionary policy must end soon on price concerns: RBI
Expansionary policy must end soon on price concerns: RBI
The Financial Express, September 11, 2009, Page 1
fe Bureaus, Mumbai
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Duvvuri Subbarao on Thursday said India would have to exit its expansionary policy sooner than other countries, setting off expectations of a rise in interest rates before the end of calendar 2009. However, he did not offer a timeline for such a change in stance.
“India may have to make a judgement on exit sooner than other countries as inflationary pressures are showing up,” said Subbarao at the Ficci-IBA annual conference on ‘Global Banking: Paradigm Shift’ on Thursday, adding that the timing and sequence of such actions were crucial. “It is not as if I know when we are going to do it and I am not telling the market,” he said.
Subbarao’s comments again threw into stark relief differences between the central bank and the finance ministry on the subject. Just a day earlier, finance secretary Ashok Chawla said withdrawal from the accommodative monetary position would have to wait.
“The consensus from all around the table from the G-20 countries (is) that this is something which has to wait… that the recovery, which is taking place, is still very tentative,” he told a television channel. Chawla said there was need for more clarity that the situation is back to normal “before we can start really seriously considering the exit options”.
Subbarao also made clear his differences with the Percy Mistry and Raghuram Rajan committees’ recommendations on bringing all trading of financial products, including the government debt market and foreign exchange market, under Sebi. He said this is an arrangement that has stood to the test of time and protected India’s financial stability even in the face of severe onslaughts. “This is an arrangement that we should not jettison lightly in the quest for a unified market regulator.”
The RBI governor also acknowledged that any exit strategy by India would have to be coordinated with other central banks. According to him, the government’s high fiscal deficit made it much more difficult for RBI to maintain price stability.
“While the current crisis has shown that price stability is not sufficient to ensure financial stability, price stability is decidedly a necessary condition for financial stability. Higher inflation could also push the yield curve upwards. This could result in significant mark-to-market losses for fixed-income instruments with potentially adverse implications for banks’ profitability. This again could impair financial stability,” he said.
He said preserving and strengthening financial stability is a complex challenge. “We need to take measured and timely action, and make a balanced judgement--not to be too benign, but also not go overboard with excessive or premature tightening. There is a concern in some quarters that the crisis may have dented our enthusiasm for financial sector reforms. I believe that concern is misplaced. We will not slow down on reforms, but will surely rework the road map to reflect the lessons of the crisis.”
RBI is conscious of the need to pay increasing attention to financial stability and to improve its skills in this area. “As a beginning in this direction, we have set up a multi-disciplinary financial stability unit in RBI and are planning to put out a regular financial stability report. The first report is planned in the next few months. These reports will present an overall unified assessment of the health of the financial system with a focus on identification and analysis of potential risks to systemic stability,” he said.
RBI to exit expansionary stance before others
RBI to exit expansionary stance before others
Business Standard, September 11, 2009, Section II, Page 3
BS REPORTER Mumbai
The easy monetary stance, which has been adopted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since October last year, might be reversed before other economies due to inflationary pressures, Reserve Bank Governor D Subbarao indicated today.
“We may have to take the call (to exit) sooner than most other countries. Because as we know inflationary pressures are showing up and we need to be sensitive to them,” Subbarao said at a banking seminar organised by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) and Indian Banks’ Association.
He, however, was candid in admitting that RBI had no clear idea on when to exit the current accommodative policy stance.
“The current state of expansionary monetary and fiscal policy is not a steady state. We got to do it at the appropriate time, in the right sequence. It is not that I know when I am going to do it and Iam not telling the market. We have no clear idea,” the governor said.
RBI is not getting clear signals as the economy is yet to shift into higher growth mode following the financial crisis, but at the same time, inflationary pressure is building up due to a rise in global commodity prices and weaker monsoon in India.
Since the global financial crisis broke out in September last year, RBI lowered cash reserve ratio by 400 basis points (bps), while repo and reverse repo rates were cut by 425 and 275 bps, respectively, to infuse liquidity. The government has also announced three stimulus packages in the last one year to boost demand.
Though RBI may unwind before other central banks, the governor highlighted the importance of coordination in withdrawing the accommodative policy among nations.
“Coordination is important but it does not mean synchronisation. It does not mean everybody does it in the same time. It means that everybody has broad understanding that when others are going to play the game,” he said.
Subbarao said the RBI has set up a multi-disciplinary financial stability unit which would put out regular financial stability report. The first report will come out in the next few months.
“This report will present an overall unified assessment of the health of the financial system with a focus on identification and analysis of potential risks to systemic stability,” he said.
Commenting that tension between fiscal and monetary policies could potentially militate against financial stability, he said, India too was confronting the dilemma of managing the tension.
“The government has asked the Finance Commission to indicate a road map for returning the path of fiscal consolidation. It is imperative that both the centre and states return to apath of fiscal responsibility, for a number of reasons, including the need to preserve financial stability.
He also assured the global financial crisis has not dented the enthusiasm for financial sector reforms.
“We will not slow down on reforms, but will surely rework the road map to reflect the lessons of the crisis,” Subbarao said.
Restoration of trust key to pace of economic recovery
Financial stability cannot be taken for granted
Financial stability has to be explicit variable in policy.
Capital account liberalisation is a process not an event
To issue regular financial stability report
To issue 1st financial stability report in few months
High inflation can push yields up
High inflation could impair financial stability
Banks will incur high MTM loss if gilt yields rise
Hard to maintain price stability if fiscal deficit high
Need to review if foreign banks can enter as arms or branches
Home loans up to Rs 10 lakh get 1% interest rate subsidy
Home loans up to Rs 10 lakh get 1% interest rate subsidy
The Hindu Business Line, September 11, 2009, Page 1
Rs 1,000-crore scheme to stop fall in credit to housing sector.
Our Bureau, New Delhi
Affordable housing, especially in non-metros, could get a much-needed boost with the Government on Thursday approving the one per cent interest subvention scheme for housing loans up to Rs 10 lakh. The Centre has allocated Rs 1,000 crore for the scheme.
Under the new scheme approved by the Cabinet, the interest subsidy will be made available through commercial banks and housing finance companies for construction/purchase of a new house or extension of an existing one. This will be allowed so long as the cost per housing unit does not exceed Rs 20 lakh. The move augurs well for the sector as it comes at a time when there has been a notable slide in the flow of credit to the sector. This was largely on account of increase in real estate prices, slackening of income growth, and rise in interest rate for home loans — all of which have brought home sales to a near standstill since late last year.
The sop will be available only for the first twelve instalments for loans sanctioned and disbursed in the twelve months running from the date of publication of the scheme.
Also, the one per cent subsidy will be computed for 12 months on disbursed amount, and adjusted upfront in the principal outstanding irrespective of whether the loan is taken on fixed or floating rate basis.
On a housing loan of Rs 10 lakh, the interest relief will amount to Rs 10,000 per account, an official release said. As such, the scheme of a size of Rs 1,000 crore is expected to cover 10 lakh beneficiaries in one-year period.
Meanwhile, Mr S. Sridhar, Chairman, National Housing Bank (NHB) — the designated nodal agency for this scheme — told Business Line that the scheme will help improve sentiment in the housing sector, especially those in the non-metros.
“A home loan borrower will be encouraged to take a decision. The developers can also quickly get their act together to increase the supply of affordable housing,” Mr Sridhar said. Developers such as DLF and Unitech said that the scheme would “galvanise” buying sentiments. Clearly, it would benefit buyers in tier-II and tier-III cities as also affordable housing projects that are now coming up in the suburbs of major cities. But, it may not be of much benefit to buyers in prime locations of metros where the ticket sizes tend to be over Rs 20 lakh.
“Nearly, 50-60 per cent of potential home buyers belong to the low cost housing category. So, the scheme is a welcome step and would benefit buyers in smaller cities and suburban locations”, Mr Pradeep Jain, Chairman of Parsvnath Developers, said.
The Hindu Business Line, September 11, 2009, Page 1
Rs 1,000-crore scheme to stop fall in credit to housing sector.
Our Bureau, New Delhi
Affordable housing, especially in non-metros, could get a much-needed boost with the Government on Thursday approving the one per cent interest subvention scheme for housing loans up to Rs 10 lakh. The Centre has allocated Rs 1,000 crore for the scheme.
Under the new scheme approved by the Cabinet, the interest subsidy will be made available through commercial banks and housing finance companies for construction/purchase of a new house or extension of an existing one. This will be allowed so long as the cost per housing unit does not exceed Rs 20 lakh. The move augurs well for the sector as it comes at a time when there has been a notable slide in the flow of credit to the sector. This was largely on account of increase in real estate prices, slackening of income growth, and rise in interest rate for home loans — all of which have brought home sales to a near standstill since late last year.
The sop will be available only for the first twelve instalments for loans sanctioned and disbursed in the twelve months running from the date of publication of the scheme.
Also, the one per cent subsidy will be computed for 12 months on disbursed amount, and adjusted upfront in the principal outstanding irrespective of whether the loan is taken on fixed or floating rate basis.
On a housing loan of Rs 10 lakh, the interest relief will amount to Rs 10,000 per account, an official release said. As such, the scheme of a size of Rs 1,000 crore is expected to cover 10 lakh beneficiaries in one-year period.
Meanwhile, Mr S. Sridhar, Chairman, National Housing Bank (NHB) — the designated nodal agency for this scheme — told Business Line that the scheme will help improve sentiment in the housing sector, especially those in the non-metros.
“A home loan borrower will be encouraged to take a decision. The developers can also quickly get their act together to increase the supply of affordable housing,” Mr Sridhar said. Developers such as DLF and Unitech said that the scheme would “galvanise” buying sentiments. Clearly, it would benefit buyers in tier-II and tier-III cities as also affordable housing projects that are now coming up in the suburbs of major cities. But, it may not be of much benefit to buyers in prime locations of metros where the ticket sizes tend to be over Rs 20 lakh.
“Nearly, 50-60 per cent of potential home buyers belong to the low cost housing category. So, the scheme is a welcome step and would benefit buyers in smaller cities and suburban locations”, Mr Pradeep Jain, Chairman of Parsvnath Developers, said.
Housing finance cos stand to benefit on rate subsidy
Housing finance cos stand to benefit on rate subsidy
The Hindu Business Line, September 11, 2009, Page 12
Stocks do not see any euphoria post announcement.
Our Bureau, Kolkata
Some of the housing finance stocks reacted positively to the Government decision to allow one percentage point interest subvention on housing loans up to Rs 10 lakh.
According to analysts, the Rs 1,000 crore-interest subsidy scheme announced by the Government on Thursday would help revive demand for housing loans further. Under the scheme, the housing finance companies will be compensated upfront for the loss on interest income on loans disbursed in the next 12 months through the National Housing Board.
Housing finance stocks had seen their year lows in March when housing loan market had contracted. By the end of May, some of the stocks had, however, witnessed their 52-week highs and some others touched the high points in July.
According to industry insiders, liquidity also improved in the intervening period. Some of the housing finance companies, which did not enjoy larger institutional sponsorships, however, faced tight margin situation.
According to Mr Amitbh Chakraborty, President (Equity) of Religare, this move to subsidise interest on the small ticket size loans would help housing finance companies more than the banks. “Entities such as LIC Housing Finance or Dewan Housing have portfolios dominated by small loans. Two key elements – lesser prepayment and very low occurrence of NPAs – in the small loan segment as against big-ticket borrowings, make less than Rs 10 lakh loans profitable”, he added. The Government move would help the housing finance companies to increase their market share.
However, according to analysts, the price movement on Thursday did not reflect any euphoria as many of the stocks in this space were already ruling high.
LIC Housing Finance on Thursday touched its all time high at Rs 688.80. It, however, closed flat at Rs 672.55, marking a 0.25 per cent gain. In the past one month, the stock has gained 70.80 per cent. In the past week, the stock has gained 38.85 per cent.
GIC Housing Finance moved closer to its 52-week high on Thursday, but lost steam and finished at Rs 83.80, up 0.60 per cent.
LICHF, GICHF and Dewan Housing margins are believed to be sustaining owing to decline in wholesale funding cost.
Dewan Housing also moved up today but ended with a loss of 2.5 per cent at Rs 130.80. Other counters such as Gruh Finance and Can Fin Home moved to flat to negative zone.
The Hindu Business Line, September 11, 2009, Page 12
Stocks do not see any euphoria post announcement.
Our Bureau, Kolkata
Some of the housing finance stocks reacted positively to the Government decision to allow one percentage point interest subvention on housing loans up to Rs 10 lakh.
According to analysts, the Rs 1,000 crore-interest subsidy scheme announced by the Government on Thursday would help revive demand for housing loans further. Under the scheme, the housing finance companies will be compensated upfront for the loss on interest income on loans disbursed in the next 12 months through the National Housing Board.
Housing finance stocks had seen their year lows in March when housing loan market had contracted. By the end of May, some of the stocks had, however, witnessed their 52-week highs and some others touched the high points in July.
According to industry insiders, liquidity also improved in the intervening period. Some of the housing finance companies, which did not enjoy larger institutional sponsorships, however, faced tight margin situation.
According to Mr Amitbh Chakraborty, President (Equity) of Religare, this move to subsidise interest on the small ticket size loans would help housing finance companies more than the banks. “Entities such as LIC Housing Finance or Dewan Housing have portfolios dominated by small loans. Two key elements – lesser prepayment and very low occurrence of NPAs – in the small loan segment as against big-ticket borrowings, make less than Rs 10 lakh loans profitable”, he added. The Government move would help the housing finance companies to increase their market share.
However, according to analysts, the price movement on Thursday did not reflect any euphoria as many of the stocks in this space were already ruling high.
LIC Housing Finance on Thursday touched its all time high at Rs 688.80. It, however, closed flat at Rs 672.55, marking a 0.25 per cent gain. In the past one month, the stock has gained 70.80 per cent. In the past week, the stock has gained 38.85 per cent.
GIC Housing Finance moved closer to its 52-week high on Thursday, but lost steam and finished at Rs 83.80, up 0.60 per cent.
LICHF, GICHF and Dewan Housing margins are believed to be sustaining owing to decline in wholesale funding cost.
Dewan Housing also moved up today but ended with a loss of 2.5 per cent at Rs 130.80. Other counters such as Gruh Finance and Can Fin Home moved to flat to negative zone.
Govt-Ficci agency to attract FDI
Govt-Ficci agency to attract FDI
The Financial Express, September 11, 2009, Page 1
fe Bureaus, New Delhi
A day after an International Finance Corporation report showed that India had slipped in its ease of doing business rankings, the government on Thursday approved the setting up of a not-for-profit, single-window facilitator for prospective overseas investors. The move comes as India saw foreign direct investment (FDI) worth $3.5 billion in July—an annual increase of 50%—indicating that the slump in inflows had been arrested.
The new company, christened Invest India, will be set up as a joint venture between the department of industrial policy & promotion (DIPP) and industry lobby Ficci. State governments will be offered a 0.5% stake in the company, totalling 14%, while the Centre would have 35%. Ficci will hold the remaining 51%.
Other countries that have similar set-ups include Australia (Austrade), China (China Investment Promotion Agency), US (Invest in America) and Austria (Austrian Business Agency). “Globally, governments have established a structural mechanism to attract investment. Invest India (will) make the country more attractive as an FDI destination. This company will act as a first reference point for prospective foreign investors,” said commerce minister Anand Sharma.
The company will have three primary roles: hand-holding prospective foreign investors, promoting investment and providing feedback on FDI policy. To be established with an authorised capital of Rs 10 crore, Invest India will have the DIPP secretary as ex-officio chairman and a professional managing director. The board will see an equal number of DIPP officials and Ficci-nominated members.
Sharma clarified that in sectors with FDI caps like telecommunications, defence production and media, overseas investors would still have to obtain permission from the inter-ministerial FIPB. Invest India would help companies that need to apply to FIPB with the formalities. “Invest India will have a coordination and facilitation role, and act as a one-stop shop for all kinds of investment services,” said DIPP secretary Ajay Shankar.
Explaining the fee-based functions of the company, Ficci secretary-general Amit Mitra said, “Invest India will provide information clarity on the different departments and norms at state and central level. If there are issues arising at any level, Invest India will assist in ironing them out.”
The Financial Express, September 11, 2009, Page 1
fe Bureaus, New Delhi
A day after an International Finance Corporation report showed that India had slipped in its ease of doing business rankings, the government on Thursday approved the setting up of a not-for-profit, single-window facilitator for prospective overseas investors. The move comes as India saw foreign direct investment (FDI) worth $3.5 billion in July—an annual increase of 50%—indicating that the slump in inflows had been arrested.
The new company, christened Invest India, will be set up as a joint venture between the department of industrial policy & promotion (DIPP) and industry lobby Ficci. State governments will be offered a 0.5% stake in the company, totalling 14%, while the Centre would have 35%. Ficci will hold the remaining 51%.
Other countries that have similar set-ups include Australia (Austrade), China (China Investment Promotion Agency), US (Invest in America) and Austria (Austrian Business Agency). “Globally, governments have established a structural mechanism to attract investment. Invest India (will) make the country more attractive as an FDI destination. This company will act as a first reference point for prospective foreign investors,” said commerce minister Anand Sharma.
The company will have three primary roles: hand-holding prospective foreign investors, promoting investment and providing feedback on FDI policy. To be established with an authorised capital of Rs 10 crore, Invest India will have the DIPP secretary as ex-officio chairman and a professional managing director. The board will see an equal number of DIPP officials and Ficci-nominated members.
Sharma clarified that in sectors with FDI caps like telecommunications, defence production and media, overseas investors would still have to obtain permission from the inter-ministerial FIPB. Invest India would help companies that need to apply to FIPB with the formalities. “Invest India will have a coordination and facilitation role, and act as a one-stop shop for all kinds of investment services,” said DIPP secretary Ajay Shankar.
Explaining the fee-based functions of the company, Ficci secretary-general Amit Mitra said, “Invest India will provide information clarity on the different departments and norms at state and central level. If there are issues arising at any level, Invest India will assist in ironing them out.”
Model Real Estate Regulation Bill soon
Model Real Estate Regulation Bill soon
The Hindu Business Line, September 11, 2009
Special Correspondent, NEW DELHI
The Centre is working on a model Real Estate Regulation Bill to provide guidelines to facilitate growth and promote a transparent and competitive real estate sector in the country.
Inaugurating a conference on Affordable Housing for Urban Poor here on Thursday, Union Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation Minister Kumari Selja said the Indian real estate market was unorganised and fragmented, and most property transactions were based on certain perceptions and not necessarily on sound business principles.
Rating system
Advocating a rating system for builders and developers to bring in quality, Ms. Selja said such a measure would inculcate business ethics in product development and delivery. “Evolving a rating system would bring the customer in the focus and help in building a brand image, besides ensuring a reasonable quality product in a specified time and within the specified price range,” she added.
Ms. Selja said the draft model bill had been sent to the States for their comments and the Government would pursue the rating system after taking all stakeholders into confidence.
In order to enable financial inclusion of economically weaker sections, Ms. Selja said her ministry has constituted a committee to explore, examine and recommend the setting up of a dedicated micro-finance company with the focus on micro-housing finance. Ms. Selja said public housing agencies have been finding it difficult to provide affordable housing options to the poor due to the non-availability of land in suitable locations at reasonable prices, and the lack of clarity on property titles. “The private sector must come forward to take up housing programmes for the poor and low-income groups with social commitments,” she said.
Rental housing was also an important component of affordable housing, Ms. Selja said, stating that it was a feasible and affordable option not only for the poor but for newly-formed households.
Govt to bring Real Estate Regulation Bill
Govt to bring Real Estate Regulation Bill
The Financial Express, September 11, 2009, Page 2
Government is working on a model Real Estate Regulation Bill to set guidelines for making this sector transparent and competitive, and mulling suitable amendments to the Rent Control Act to revive rental housing to provide affordable homes to the urban middle class.
"Government is working on a model Real Estate Regulation Bill to provide guidelines to facilitate growth and promotion of healthy and transparent, efficient and competitive Real Estate Sector in the country," Kumari Selja, Minister of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation said here.
Delivering the inaugural address at the National Conference on Affordable Housing for Urban Poor organised by ASSOCHAM, Selja said the government was seriously looking at revival of rental housing system and accordingly making necessary changes in the Rental Control Act for the purpose.
The model Bill may be passed in Parliament in the forthcoming winter session, she said.
Selja lamented that customer satisfaction in real estate transactions was low and the procedure for redressal long and cumbersome. To deal with this her ministry is planning to start a system of rating builders and developers, which would inculcate business ethics in product development and delivery.
Centre eyes Rs 15k-cr line of credit from WB for roads
Centre eyes Rs 15k-cr line of credit from WB for roads
The Financial Express, September 11, 2009, Page 3
fe Bureaus, New Delhi
The surface transport ministry, which aims to attract foreign investments worth $10 billion globally in the next two years, is planning to arrange a line of credit worth Rs 15,000 crore from the World Bank to upgrade around 6,000 km of single-lane highways to two-lane stretches, a move that will provide connectivity to the rural and backward areas.
“Some of our national highways in states such as Bihar, MP and Jharkhand are single lanes. To convert them to two lanes, we are proposing a project of Rs 15,000 crore to the World Bank. This fund will be dedicated to upgrade single-lanes to two-lane because 19,702 km of national highways are single lanes. Of this, we plan to cover 6,376 km. This will be an economic stimulus to these areas because single-lane roads are present in the most backward areas,” said Kamal Nath, who will be leaving on a seven-day visit to the US on Friday to meet World Bank chief and address investors there.
He said the loan will be tied up in six months time. On the mode of awarding contracts and funding to upgrade the two highways, Nath added, “The contracts will be provided on engineering procurement contract basis. 80% of the financing for the project is debt and we will be pumping the balance 20% on our own.”
A top ministry official said the balance 20% of the funding will be met from the plan provision of the ministry, which has already been approved.
Ansal may change land-use plan of SEZs
Ansal may change land-use plan of SEZs
Business Standard, September 11, 2009, Page 2
Hit by slowdown in the IT sector, realty firm Ansal Properties & Infrastructure is mulling over converting three out of four of its notified IT Special Economic Zones into residential projects. The company will take a decision to apply for de-notification and converting the three IT SEZs, which have already been put on hold for the last 8-9 months, by the end of this year.
PTI
Business Standard, September 11, 2009, Page 2
Hit by slowdown in the IT sector, realty firm Ansal Properties & Infrastructure is mulling over converting three out of four of its notified IT Special Economic Zones into residential projects. The company will take a decision to apply for de-notification and converting the three IT SEZs, which have already been put on hold for the last 8-9 months, by the end of this year.
PTI
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