Tuesday, June 23, 2009
India to be fastest-growing economy in ’10: World Bank
India to be fastest-growing economy in ’10: World Bank
The Economic Times, June 23, 2009, Page 1
The World Bank has projected an 8% growth for India in 2010, which will make it the fastest-growing economy, trailed by China with a 7.7% growth. The multilateral lender has revised upwards the growth rate for the Indian economy this year to 5.1% from an earlier projection of 4%, according to its Global Development Finance Report released on Monday. The prospects for the global economy remain ‘unusually uncertain’ despite recent signs of improvement in some parts of the world, the report points out.
At 8%, India to grow fastest in ’10: World Bank
At 8%, India to grow fastest in ’10: World Bank
The Economic Times, June 23, 2009, Page 9
Our Bureau NEW DELHI
THE World Bank has projected an 8% growth for India in 2010, which will make it the fastest-growing economy for the first time, overtaking China’s expected 7.7% growth.
The multilateral lender has revised upwards the growth rate for the Indian economy this year to 5.1% from an earlier projection of 4%, according to its Global Development Finance Report released on Monday. India has consistently outperformed growth forecasts by the World Bank in the past.
The prospects for the global economy remain ‘unusually uncertain’ despite recent signs of improvement in some parts of the world, the report points out. Barring a few countries, including India and China, the bank has cut 2009 growth projections for all other economies and expects the world economy to contract by 2.9% this year.
"Developing countries are expected to grow by only 1.2% this year, after 8.1% growth in 2007 and 5.9% growth in 2008.
"When China and India are excluded, GDP in the remaining developing countries is projected to fall by 1.6%, causing continued job losses and throwing more people into poverty," the report said.
The report calls on governments around the world to be vigilant when drawing up strategies to reverse the recent expansionary monetary and fiscal policies once the world economy takes off.
The bank has urged rich countries to boost the flow of credit to developing nations to help speed up economic recovery. “Developing countries can become a key driving force in the recovery, assuming their domestic investments rebound with international support, including a resumption in the flow of international credit,” said Justin Lin, chief economist at World Bank.
Despite the gloomy picture for this year, the bank says growth in developing countries, led by India and China, could reach 4.4% in 2010 and 5.7% by 2011.
Since global growth will only return to its full potential by 2011, the gap between actual and potential output, unemployment and disinflationary pressures continue to build, the report adds.
This World Bank report compares with a more upbeat assessment by the International Monetary Fund, which said last week the decline in global output has moderated and it may raise its 2010 growth forecast for the world economy.
GDP growth at 7.2% over 5 yrs: Economist
GDP growth at 7.2% over 5 yrs: Economist
The Economic Times, June 23, 2009, Page 9
INDIA'S real GDP growth will average at 7.2% over the next five years even as risks to the global economy continue to remain high, the Economist Intelligence Unit has said, reports PTI from Mumbai. The world's second-fastest growing economy may also see negative inflation for the next 3-6 months triggering expectation of rate cuts by banks, the research arm of Economist added. “Emerging Asia will be the world's fastest-growing region over 2010-13, but this mainly reflects a relatively strong growth performance by India and China,” it said.
Developing countries to grow, thanks to India, China
Developing countries to grow, thanks to India, China
The Times of India, June 23, 2009, Page 23
Washington: Boosted by the strength of India and China, developing nations would grow 1.2% this year, but without the two, these economies would shrink 1.6%, says the World Bank. Warning that the world is entering an era of ‘‘slower growth'', the multilateral lending agency has projected the global economy to shrink 2.9% this year.
The World Bank in its latest report titled ‘Global Development Finance 2009: Charting A Global Recovery' has said that excluding India and China, the developing economies would shrink 1.6% this year. ‘‘Developing countries are expected to grow by only 1.2% this year, after 8.1% growth in 2007 and 5.9% growth in 2008.
‘‘When China and India are excluded, GDP in the remaining developing countries is projected to fall by 1.6%, causing continued job losses and throwing more people into poverty,'' the report said.
The bank anticipates the global economy to contract 2.9% this year but to grow in 2010. Earlier, the bank projected the world GDP to shrink 1.7%. ‘‘Global growth is also expected to be negative, with an expected 2.9% contraction of global GDP in 2009,'' the report noted.
Presenting an optimistic outlook, the bank has projected the developing economies to grow at 4.4% and 5.7% in 2010 and 2011, respectively. ‘‘Global GDP growth is expected to rebound to 2% in 2010 and 3.2% by 2011. In developing countries growth is expected to be higher, at 4.4% in 2010 and 5.7% in 2011, albeit subdued relative to the robust performance prior to the current crisis,'' the report said. Battered by the global economic recession and shaky financial markets, the net private capital inflow to developing countries plunged to $707 billion in 2008 from $1.2 trillion in the previous year.
‘‘Amid global economic recession and financial-market fragility, net private capital inflows to developing countries fell to $707 billion in 2008, a sharp drop from a peak of $1.2 trillion in 2007. International capital flows are projected to fall further in 2009, to $363 billion,'' it noted. AGENCIES
Union Bank lowers BPLR by 25 bps
Union Bank lowers BPLR by 25 bps
Business Standard, June 23, 2009, Section II, Page 3
BS Reporters / Mumbai/kolkata
Union Bank of India today announced a 25-basis-point reduction in its benchmark prime lending rate (BPLR), while United Bank of India would decide on a rate cut next week. Union Bank’s new BPLR of 11.75 per cent would be effective from July 1. The bank has left deposit rates unchanged.
“This is the fifth successive reduction since November 2008 and the bank has reduced a total of 225 basis points in BPLR since November 2008,” Union Bank of India said in a statement.
Meanwhile, Mumbai-based IDBI Bank has decided to cut its interest rate on term deposits by 25-50 basis points across different maturities. The new rates will be effective from June 25. The peak rate on the Suvidha tax saving deposits will be 8 per cent as against the old rate of 8.5 per cent.
Country’s largest lender State Bank of India has reduced deposit rates by 150 basis points in stages in the current financial year to reduce the cost of funds.
Kolkata-headquartered United Bank’s BPLR could go down by 25-50 basis points, bank sources indicated.
The public sector player would decide on a rate cut its asset-liability committee meet next week, Chairman and Managing Director S C Gupta said on the sidelines of a conference.
The moves come after Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee asked public sector players to lower rates.
While pointing out that rates had been lowered by over 200 basis points between September 2008 and April 2009, Gupta said the small savings scheme hindered banks’ ability to reduce rates. “There is a room for further reduction in interest rates, but the rates on government deposits schemes have to come down,” said Gupta.
Aam aadmi | inflation gallops to double digits
Aam aadmi inflation gallops to double digits
The Economic Times, June 23, 2009, Page 1
CPI AT 10.2% IN MAY
Anto Antony & Vivek Sinha NEW DELHI
PRICE rise experienced by ordinary consumers—Consumer Price Index (CPI)—rose to 10.2% in May, the same month the wholesale price inflation had remained less than half a percentage point.
Even as the WPI-based inflation famously turned negative for the first time in 35 years in the first week of June, the sudden surge in inflation based on rural and agricultural workers’ CPI, after a steady decline for four months, is likely to crimp any enthusiasm in policymaking circles for a sharp monetary or fiscal expansion, according to economists.
Retail inflation is measured by three different sets of CPI—one each for rural and agricultural labourers as well as industrial workers.
The labour bureau under the labour and employment ministry, which compiles these three consumer price indices, will release the index for industrial workers, the one used for computing dearness allowance, on June 30. Inflation as per this index is also expected to move up.
The difference between WPI and CPI is on account of the different items taken into account and the weights assigned to them. While food items have a weightage of 15.2% in WPI, their weightage in all the three consumer price indices is above 50%. The politically sensitive food price inflation is hovering at around 9% even now.
Economists say with retail inflation refusing to budge below the 10-year high of 10.5% it touched in January, even when WPI dropped to negative terrain, chances are that RBI will reverse the expansionary monetary policy while even the Centre might curb its spending plans.
A review of the situation by the finance ministry earlier had pointed out that the increase in rural income on account of higher government spending could be a reason for the higher inflation in rural areas.
Unitech promoters revoke pledged shares
Unitech promoters revoke pledged shares
The Financial Express, June 23, 2009, Corporates & Markets, Page 1
MUMBAI: Realty firm Unitech said on Monday that its promoters have revoked over five crore shares pledged with lenders, bringing down the total pledged stake to 24.42 per cent.
In a disclosure to the National Stock Exchange, the company said three of its promoters - Mayfair Investments, Prakausali Investments and Mayfair Capital - have revoked a total 5,08,56,963 pledged shares, representing 3.19 per cent of the share capital of the company.
Parsvnath Q4 net dips 89%
The Financial Express, Corporates & Markets, June 23, 2009, Page 1
Real estate firm Parsvnath Developers on Monday reported an 89.13 per cent fall in consolidated net profit at Rs 11.61 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2009. The company had a net profit of Rs 106.86 crore in the March quarter of FY' 08, Parsvnath Developers said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.
Revenue also declined to Rs 19.96 crore in the latest quarter from Rs 506.77 crore in the same month last year.
For the full year ended March 31, 2009, the realty firm reported a net profit of Rs 112.90 crore as against Rs 424.39 crore last fiscal.
Parsvnath's revenue decreased to Rs 710.62 crore in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2009, from Rs 1,802.46 crore in the previous fiscal.
On a standalone basis, Parsvnath posted a net profit of Rs 13.55 crore in the March quarter of 2009 as compared to Rs 108.87 crore in the corresponding year ago period.
The company's revenue decreased to Rs 72.05 crore in the quarter ended March 31 this year as against Rs 534.14 crore in the year-ago period. - PTI
'It's too early to say whether the economy has bottomed out'
Business Standard, June 23, 2009, Page 6
Q&A: Pronab Sen
While there is talk of the economy’s downturn bottoming out, the central government’s Chief Statistician, Pronab Sen, says we still have a long way to go. In an interview with Devika Banerji, he says the monitoring of rural spending should be on top of the new government’s priorities. Edited excerpts:
Analysts have been speaking about early signs of recovery. Fourth quarter GDP has shown resilience and IIP (index of industrial production) has been the highest since September. Do you see some sort of bottoming out of the economy?
It is too early to say so. The various indicators, for example the GDP figures, have been primarily driven by agriculture because of good kharif and rabi crops. Industry in the fourth quarter continues to be down.
On IIP, we also have to consider the timing of the data, which incorporates the effect of the stimulus packages announced in December and January. Here we did not expect anything major to happen but for reduction in tax rates, which is the only way to ensure any immediate effect on the economy. Considering this, there might have been a slight blip on the purchase side. Along with this, the elections and the entire election expenditure acted as an added stimulus.
But none of these is sustainable in the long run. The greater part of the effect of the stimulus package would be on the expenditure side; not much of it has happened and we don’t know how much impact it has had till now. So I would not go so far as to say we have turned a corner in terms of sustainability.
There are two issues. One, that the purchasing managers’ indicator (PMI) has risen for two consecutive months and has improved some of the export-oriented sectors, which mean the worst for exports is over, and I am hoping this is the case. In which case, things can look up because you had an average decrease of 30 per cent in exports for 5-6 months.
On the flip side, look at agriculture. During the first quarter, there will not be much of a negative effect because it will still be dragging the good rabi crop effect. But the delay in monsoon and what it will do to the kharif crop is worrisome because rural consumer demand, which has really buoyed up the consumption side, may get negatively affected. So, it’s a mixed bag of news that we will see. So, its too early to say whether the economy has bottomed out.
What would be, in data terms, a firm indication that the economy has bottomed out?
Credit growth is at 17 -18 per cent, which a lot of people worried, but one has to remember the figure is in reference to what has happened earlier. Last year, credit growth at this time was above 22 per cent and that was not sustainable. Compared to that, 17-18 per cent is not bad and it can maintain itself quite easily. However, what we are not factoring in is the situation overseas. FDI is okay, but stuck since last year. All in all, on the credit side there isn’t any bad news and there isn’t any tremendously good news.
Working capital requirements could be low because of low inflation. Also in terms of real credit growth, do you think it’s at a higher level this year?
In a sense its true, 17-18 per cent credit growth is not bad at all in terms of working capital and in a sense, it squares out the PMI, which has said that inventory build up is taking place. So that’s consistent.
So, can one say that this 17-18 per cent credit growth is an indicator that some resilience is taking place?
What it basically suggests is that the demand side, as of now, is still okay. However, it is not factoring in the negative effects of delay in monsoons or the positive effects of the stimulus packages.
What sort of government expenditure would you recommend till private consumption and investment picks up?
It depends on the diagnosis of what is wrong. The upper end of the consumption scale is practically untouched by the slowdown. Consumer durables clearly show that. If you look at the lower tail, it’s held up mainly because of good rabi crop, partly because of the farm loan waiver. Offhand, I’d say that income tax cuts are unlikely to have any dramatic effects on consumption. People are already spending .What will probably happen when you give them more money, they will stash it in the banks.
But at the lower end of the table, on the positive effects of the actions that have held up consumption, two of them would be on the way out. One is the farm loan waiver- it’s not going to happen again. And the positive effects of rabi and the kharif might run out. Therefore, it does make sense to inject liquidity in income at this lower level. NREGA (National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) can be one of the pegs for such injection of capital.
What about the second instalment of the sixth pay commission?
That will again affect only the upper-end consumers, which are anyway holding up.
So, expanding the NREGA would be a good idea?
The main issue in NREGA is that if the people demand work it should be given to them. If the kharif goes bad, there will be a demand for work and the point is whether you are ready to provide that. Typically, there is always a bit of a problem at this point of time because during monsoons all public works are stalled - no construction works take place but the point is that as soon as rains are over and people demand jobs, you should be ready to give them that.
So, it’s really much more organisational than financial. I think the allocations at present are sufficient to tide over the present time. You may need allocations in the winter if the rabi goes bad, but at the moment that’s not the major concern.
As far as the middle end is concerned, there is very little the government can do. As far as income tax is concerned, the middle end does not pay that much, so a little change here and there does not really matter.
On indirect taxes, do you think a slight increase in some recovering sectors can be done?
As an economist, I would say the justification for giving the tax cuts simply does not exist. What we have from the accounts and tax data suggest that much of the benefits have been absorbed by companies to improve their bottom lines rather than passing it on to customers. On the whole, it is better to increase the tax rates.
There is a worry that fiscal deficit numbers would increase substantially in the current fiscal.
In the interim budget there has been padding up of all expenditures. So when the actuals come in, besides the indirect tax collections, you will also find a fair amount of saving on the expenditure side. I do not think that net fiscal deficit is going to be very different from the interim estimate.
Would monetisation of fiscal deficit be better to avoid the crowding out (of private borrowing for investment) effect?
There is no automatic monetisation, which does not mean that RBI cannot do this. The RBI is perfectly free at any given time to buy up government debt and put it in the system but its a decision of the RBI.
So, to talk about automatic monetisation I don’t think it makes a substantial difference. What makes a difference is RBI’s attitude towards monetisation.
PEs put pressure on realtors for exit route
The Economic Times, June 23, 2009, Page 7
Sachin Dave & Ravi Teja Sharma MUMBAI NEW DELHI
SEVERAL private equity (PE) players, global as well as domestic, whose lock-in period in real estate investments will end soon, are pressurising developers for an exit route. While some PE players are asking the developers to go for an IPO at an SPV or a portfolio level, developers who are wary about going public are approaching other investors or even buying back the stake themselves.
Said Biren Parekh, Partner, (Real Estate), Ernst & Young, “To get higher valuations in the booming market some developers delayed projects. Now many PE players especially at an SPV level want to exit and are asking the developers for an exit route.” A fund manager with a USbased PE fund agreed, “While some developers sat on the projects, time has been running out for us. Some clauses that formed the agreement which allows us to persuade developers and ask them to give the returns agreed upon.”
India’s real estate sector witnessed a fund inflow of over $16.5 billion since 2007 from PE players. While 2007 witnessed 86 deals in the real estate sector, the number was at 78 in 2008 and just six this year. Said Kaustuv Roy, Executive Director, Cushman & Wakefield, “Some developers are negotiating with the PE players as with the former wary of going public now. The IPO would be a big risk but PE players have their limitations and thus one may see some activity in the sector soon.”
There has been talk of a Mumbai-based real estate player looking to go public on account of a serious fund crunch. Likewise, another New Delhi-based budget hotel chain which invested heavily in building its property and had sold stakes to a few leading private equity players is also under pressure to go public.
“A number of private equity players today are driving a lot of strategic as well as operational initiatives within their investee companies. They are reworking debt, relooking at marketing strategy as well as day-to-day management,” says industry tracker Anckur Srivasttava. In another recent development, a large unlisted real estate firm, which is present in south and central Mumbai, has decided to return the funds raised to a PE player who had invested in its portfolio.