Friday, November 20, 2009
India, China to lead the way
India, China to lead the way
The Economic Times, November 20, 2009, Page 17
China and India are poised to accelerate due to strong stimulus measures, the OECD projected Thursday. “Vigorous growth has resumed in China” thanks to sizeable monetary and fiscal stimulus, it said. The Paris-based group hiked its growth forecast for China to 9.3% in 2009 and 10.2% in 2010. In March, it projected China's growth at 6-7% in 2009. For India, the OECD boosted its growth forecast to 6.1% in 2009 and 7.3% in 2010, rising to 7.6% the following year. The OECD, in March, projected 4.3% expansion for India in 2009. India's recovery appeared to be only “modestly hampered” by the driest monsoon in nearly four decades and economic data suggested the growth “momentum is strengthening,” the OECD said. But a resurgence of inflationary pressures pose a “key challenge” to Indian policymakers in deciding when to withdraw stimulus in order to tackle the large public deficit, it said. — AFP
India to grow 7% in '10: OECD
Business Standard, November 20, 2009, Page 7
BS Reporter / New Delhi
Global growth forecast increased to 3.4 per cent.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has in its latest report applauded the Indian economy's resilience and has projected a growth rate of 7 per cent in 2010 and 7.5 per cent for 2011. However, it says that India's central bank must tighten its monetary policy fairly soon to contain the rising inflation.
“Given the speed at which inflation has bounced back, monetary policy will need to be tightened fairly soon,” the Paris-based OECD said about India in its Economic Outlook report released today. OECD expects headline inflation to be at 5.4 per cent in 2010, while it expects the fiscal deficit to be at 10 per cent in 2009 and 9 per cent in 2010.
The OECD outlook is in line with finance minister Pranab Mukherjee's recent statement that the country could expect to go back to a growth rate of 9-10 per cent in 2012-13 and a 7 per cent growth rate in 2010-11.
More cheer from biz confidence index
Adding to the positive outlook, the business confidence index (BCI) released jointly by NCAER and MasterCard Worldwide also brings good tidings.
The BCI has surged by 21 points in October 2009 over the previous survey in July, primarily due to an increase in industrial activity, which is reflected by the recent rise in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in the backdrop of the festival season. Confidence levels are now almost equal with what had been registered in the pre-downturn period.
The recovery of economic growth appears to be more robust in view of the continuing consolidation of business confidence. The current survey has registered improvement in all the four indicators, which include corporate financial condition, investment climate, capacity utilisation and overall economic conditions, compared with the previous quarter.
A majority 67.4 per cent and 68.7 per cent of the respondents surveyed said they expected domestic sales and production levels to increase respectively in the next six months. However, only 36.9 per cent of the respondents expect exports to pick up in the coming six months. Prices of industrial inputs are also expected to rise but companies will hold their prices down over the next six months, the survey said.
Reuters adds:
Meanwhile, the OECD also said in its report that Asia is leading the global economy out of the deepest downturn in decades, but the recovery will be marred by high unemployment and huge government debt across the industrialised countries.
Central banks and governments in major western economies should prepare for a gradual upward shift in ultra-low interest rates and for fiscal consolidation once recovery is stronger, but they will only need to move in late 2010 at the earliest, given that inflation is so low, it said.
The Paris-based OECD raised its global growth forecast for next year to 3.4 per cent from the 2.3 per cent it was predicting as recently as June, after an estimated contraction of 1.7 per cent in 2009.
OECD doubles growth forecast for 2010; Asia to power recovery
OECD doubles growth forecast for 2010; Asia to power recovery
The Financial Express, November 20, 2009, Page 18
Bloomberg
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) doubled its growth forecast for the leading developed economies next year and predicted a further acceleration in 2011 as China and other emerging countries power a global recovery.
The combined economy of the group’s 30 member countries will expand 1.9% next year and 2.5% in 2011, the Paris-based organisation said in a report on Thursday. Output will contract 3.5% this year. The OECD, which advises members on economic policy, forecast 2010 growth of 0.7% in June.
The MSCI World Index has surged 69% in the past eight months as the world economy emerges from its worst recession in more than half a century. While the US and the euro region will return to growth next year, mounting debt burdens will keep the expansion in check, the OECD said.
“We now have numbers that support a recovery in motion,” Jorgen Elmeskov, the OECD’s acting chief economist, said. “It’s still a slow recovery because of considerable headwinds from the need to adjust the balance sheets of households, enterprises and financial sectors.”
The MSCI index, down 0.6% on Thursday, was little changed after the OECD report was published. The yield on the benchmark German 10-year government bond stayed at 3.292%.
Output in the OECD economies will only return to the level achieved in the first three months of 2008 in the third quarter of 2011, underlining the damage done by the banking crisis.
The US economy will grow 2.5% in 2010 instead of the 0.9% predicted in June and the euro region will advance 0.9% instead of a projection it would stagnate, the OECD said. Japan will post growth of 1.8% instead of 0.7%. The forecast for China was raised to 10.2%.
“Outside of the OECD, things are more buoyant, especially in Asia,” Elmeskov said. “The non-OECD countries weren’t affected by asset-price meltdowns as much and up to the downturn ran sensible economic policies.”
The OECD gave 2011 growth forecasts for the first time. The US will grow 2.8%, the euro area 1.7% and Japan 2%. The Chinese economy will expand 9.3%, it said.
The relative weakness of the US and euro region’s recoveries is prompting policy makers to put China under pressure to allow the yuan to appreciate more. President Barack Obama told Chinese leaders this week the US expects to see progress by next year on making the exchange rate “more flexible,” Ambassador Jon Huntsman said.
Sluggish growth in the OECD means most of their central banks should be careful in tightening monetary policy as their economies recover, the organisation said. Unemployment in the OECD region will increase by 21 million by the end of 2010 from 2007, taking the rate to 9% from 5.6%.
While non-conventional measures may need to be withdrawn in the months ahead to counter a “large overhang of liquidity,” interest rates shouldn’t start to move up until inflationary pressures begin to be felt, the report said. “The recovery is weak and there is a lot of spare capacity,” Elmeskov said.
The OECD’s forecasts assume the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hold off on rate increases until almost the end of 2010 and the Bank of Japan maintains its benchmark rate at 0.1% through 2011, he added.
The ECB’s main rate, currently at 1%, will probably climb to 2% by the end of 2011 and the Fed’s benchmark will rise to 2.25% in that time from close to zero at present. While unprecedented liquidity injections have raised concern about new asset bubbles that policy makers need to be aware of, they have yet to materialise, the OECD says.
“We are talking about a risk here, not something that is happening,” Elmeskov said. “One can say that given where we are there’s little alternative to very low rates but we need to be aware that they could imply the risk of bubbles forming.”
Demand for realty facilities mgmt surges 18% this fiscal
Business Standard, November 20, 2009, Page 9
Mona Mehta, Mumbai
Demand from top corporates and banks for sourcing facilities management solutions (FMS), which helps maintain properties as per international standards and includes taking care of maintenance, equipment and operations, has gained 15%-18% between April to October 2009.
Despite the growth, demand has not touched the peak levels of 2008 yet.
Demand growth was 25%-30% during financial year 2007-08. But demand from the retail sector for outsourcing FMS has fallen 50% in tier II and tier III cities as retail companies are rather opting to manage malls themselves.
Naushad Panjwani, executive director, Knight Frank India, told FE, “This facility is to maintain properties at the level of international standards, making them energy efficient, thereby ensuring that clients are free to concentrate on their core business without becoming involved with routine property maintenance issues. As a result, corporates are able to save on rental costs.”
Reliance Industries Ltd, which conducts training programmes for employees at the project management centre at Mumbai’s Bandra Kurla Complex is evaluating plans to open many more such centres in India for which it is eyeing FMS.
A senior official involved in the project management at RIL said, “We conduct project management training programmes for employees at our centre based in Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC). We intend to open many such centres in India where we will continue sourcing FMS from third parties in a phased manner.” Currently, Knight Frank India is maintaining the existing project management centre property of RIL.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is currently sourcing FMS from Knight Frank for its commercial IT facility in Pune. Deutsche Bank, which is planning to expand branches in India, is also outsourcing FMS and will continue to do so.
Barclay’s Bank currently sources FMS for its BPO branches from Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj and from Knight Frank for its bank branches. It is currently talking to both these companies to provide FMS for other properties as well. The current area under management by Knight Frank is about 15 mn sq ft. Industry experts estimate FMS services potential in India to be around Rs 6,000 crore.
Yash Kapila, managing director — integrated facilities management — Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj said, “Demand from corporates and the BPO sector have started emerging, along with certain new market dynamics. There is now increased interest in alternate pricing models rather than the usual cost plus models. There is also an increased transfer of risk to FMS providers. In the past, it was the corporates who had to take the risk burden.”
Further, in the current scenario, it has become a norm for FMS providers to receive a share of the savings generated — most particularly in the case of energy savings, on which there is now more emphasis. In the retail sector, decrease in overall footfalls have impacted the margins of retailers and mall owners and this is being reflected in the pressure on FMS pricing contracts.
However, demand still exists for FMS in the larger, more successful shopping establishments, Kapila added.
Demand for realty facilities mgmt surges 18% this fiscal
The Financial Express, November 20, 2009, Page 4
Mona Mehta, Mumbai
Demand from top corporates and banks for sourcing facilities management solutions (FMS), which helps maintain properties as per international standards and includes taking care of maintenance, equipment and operations, has gained 15%-18% between April to October 2009.
Despite the growth, demand has not touched the peak levels of 2008 yet.
Demand growth was 25%-30% during financial year 2007-08. But demand from the retail sector for outsourcing FMS has fallen 50% in tier II and tier III cities as retail companies are rather opting to manage malls themselves.
Naushad Panjwani, executive director, Knight Frank India, told FE, “This facility is to maintain properties at the level of international standards, making them energy efficient, thereby ensuring that clients are free to concentrate on their core business without becoming involved with routine property maintenance issues. As a result, corporates are able to save on rental costs.”
Reliance Industries Ltd, which conducts training programmes for employees at the project management centre at Mumbai’s Bandra Kurla Complex is evaluating plans to open many more such centres in India for which it is eyeing FMS.
A senior official involved in the project management at RIL said, “We conduct project management training programmes for employees at our centre based in Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC). We intend to open many such centres in India where we will continue sourcing FMS from third parties in a phased manner.” Currently, Knight Frank India is maintaining the existing project management centre property of RIL.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is currently sourcing FMS from Knight Frank for its commercial IT facility in Pune. Deutsche Bank, which is planning to expand branches in India, is also outsourcing FMS and will continue to do so.
Barclay’s Bank currently sources FMS for its BPO branches from Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj and from Knight Frank for its bank branches. It is currently talking to both these companies to provide FMS for other properties as well. The current area under management by Knight Frank is about 15 mn sq ft. Industry experts estimate FMS services potential in India to be around Rs 6,000 crore.
Yash Kapila, managing director — integrated facilities management — Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj said, “Demand from corporates and the BPO sector have started emerging, along with certain new market dynamics. There is now increased interest in alternate pricing models rather than the usual cost plus models. There is also an increased transfer of risk to FMS providers. In the past, it was the corporates who had to take the risk burden.”
Further, in the current scenario, it has become a norm for FMS providers to receive a share of the savings generated — most particularly in the case of energy savings, on which there is now more emphasis. In the retail sector, decrease in overall footfalls have impacted the margins of retailers and mall owners and this is being reflected in the pressure on FMS pricing contracts.
However, demand still exists for FMS in the larger, more successful shopping establishments, Kapila added.
Commerce firm on keeping SEZs out of new tax code
Commerce firm on keeping SEZs out of new tax code
The Economic Times, November 20, 2009, Page 9
DON’T MOP THE SOP: Keep All SEZs, Including New Ones, Tax-Free To Attract Businesses & Investments
Amiti Sen NEW DELHI
THE commerce department has opposed bringing tax-free special economic zones (SEZs) under the ambit of the proposed direct taxes code, arguing that it could hit the development of such zones and ultimately hurt exports.
SEZ developers and units in these zones at present enjoy benefits under a special Act passed by Parliament and are spared from paying taxes on profits.
However, under the code, that has been circulated by the revenue department and which seeks to streamline the country’s tax regime by minimising exemptions and lowering rates, tax benefits will be linked to investments made by developers. The code is also unclear about the tax treatment to units that operate out of SEZs and could erode the attractiveness of SEZs for businesses. It could particularly cut tax benefits enjoyed by SEZs, especially in sectors like IT where investments are low.
The commerce department therefore wants SEZs to be kept outside the new overarching code and has indicated this in a communication to the finance ministry, a department official told ET, requesting anonymity. Such a demand signals a hardening in the stance of the department, which had earlier sought only a written assurance from the finance ministry that the new tax regime will not be applicable on the zones where developers have already started making investments.
Director general of export promotion council for exportoriented units (EoUs) and SEZs L B Singhal said while the proposed code contradicted provisions of the SEZ Act, ambiguities in the new proposal was making things worse and investors were shying away from taking investment decisions. The proposed code allows so-called grandfathering of incentives, under which SEZs enjoying tax breaks under present rules would continue to do so. But there is no clarity on whether tax exemptions on export income available to SEZs and the exemption from minimum alternate tax would continue, Mr Singhal said.
He added that the government could not wait until 2011 to make clarifications as investors, both domestic and foreign, were hesitating from making investments in SEZs amid apprehension that these would fail to attract units if tax laws changed.
SEZ projects are typically long-gestation projects and lack of certainty about tax laws could make developers of these zones apprehensive about the returns that they would expect from prospective units coming up in them.
The dark night is over
The dark night is over
The Economic Times, ET Realty, November 20, 2009, Page 9
As the dark clouds of market slowdown have lifted, commercial realty segment is finally looking up. The situation is only going to go better now, say experts. Read on to know more...
Vivek Shukla
Even as residential market picks up and end users flock back to book their dream homes in various housing projects, action is slowly gathering pace in commercial realty market too - after a long time, there is a positive movement here.
While it will take at least two years for DLF Corporate Green building in Sector 74 in Gurgaon, near Haldiram, to become fully operational, the construction is giving a huge boost to commercial realty scene. There is a definite buzz in market for this latest offering from the stable of a market leader. This is all the more surprising considering that rentals in good buildings have also seen big slump in Delhi, as well as in NCR towns.
As if this were not enough, there is a glut in available space in most of the buildings in these areas. A lot of office space is up for grabs as many big-ticket companies have shifted from bigger to small offices in the past few months after they were hit hard by economic slow down. A large number of companies resorted to such measures in order to reduce their overheads. The number of companies which were occupying 10,000 sq feet or more space and then shifting to smaller spaces is not small. In the world of realty, any office that is spread in an area of 10,000 sq feet is considered big. Despite all this, DLF Corporate Green has, in a way, became a test case to prove that commercial market is also getting back into its own, slowly.
Sanjay Rai, spokesman of DLF, says while he cannot say with certainty that their new offering would revive activity in commercial property segment, there are three very important factors in realty sector that play a key role in determining demand of any residential as well as commercial buildng: one, right pricing; two: right location, and three: track record of the realty firm in terms of completing their project. If any property has all these three, it is bound to attract the attention of customers, Rai feels.
"I couldn't agree more with these three points," says Devender Gupta, CMD, realty advisory Century 21 India, adding, "I feel the pricing in the case of DLF Commercial Greens is very significant. They have fixed Rs 5,200/sq feet in their new building when the current rates in commercial buildings in same area are hovering between Rs 6,500/sq feet and Rs 7,500/sq feet. You would not get commercial space at Rs 5,200/sq feet in any commercial buildings like Unitech Business Zone, Times Square, ABW Tower and other such buildings. These buildings are either on Iffco chowk or close to it."
Zafar Iqbal, formerly of Indian Administrative Services and an expert on land related matters, says as economy is showing definite signs of improvement and the affects of economic slowdown are disappearing, the commercial side of realty is bound to see better days. He says that even though enough space is on offer in prestigious buildings, there will still be enough demand for good buildings in nice locations elsewhere. But, there is another opinion that due to various counteracting factors, it will not be easy for commercial projects to create buzz in market.
A spokesman of Integrated PanRealty Solutions Private Limited says while it is true commercial properties look to be in for better times, the situation is nowhere close to developments in residential projects. Explaining his stand, he says getting a loan for a residential project is much easier compared to getting one for a commercial project, as investment ticket size is bigger for commercial projects than in residential projects. In this scenario, it will take some time for commercial properties to be sold like hot cakes.
Some also say lease rentals are low due to poor demand of leased spaces; this is thus making commercial real estate lesser attractive than residential real estate. Several vacant buildings exemplify the challenge faced by investors in commercial properties. The maintenance cost is as high as Rs 20 psf (per square feet), even if the building is vacant, and wastage in common areas is as high as 40%.
Sunil Jindal, CEO of SVP builders, also says unlike residential realty, commercial realty is only improving. Citing the example of his firm's project, Ghaziabad-based Opulent Mall, he says more enquires are pouring in for space now. The good thing is some of the queries are serious and a few even translated into deals. "I expect that with an improvement in economy, Q2 results of most of the companies have surged, hence, from now onwards, companies of all sizes will buy commercial space." Rajeev Rai, vicepresident (corporate) of Assotech Ltd, feels this is just the right time to buy commercial property.
FOCAL POINT
Economy is showing definite signs of improvement and the affects of economic slowdown are disappearing, the commercial realty is bound to see better days A lot of office space is up for grabs as many big-ticket companies have shifted from bigger to smaller offices in the past few months after being hit hard by slowdown