Friday, June 26, 2009
Sensex could touch 19000 this year
Sensex could touch 19000 this year
The Economic Times, June 26, 2009, Page 18
THE market is likely to consolidate at these levels for some time, but the Sensex could touch 19,000 and the Nifty 6,000 before the year ends, says Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, partner, Rare Enterprise. There are plenty of opportunities despite the sharp run-up in prices, Mr Jhunjhunwala said in an interview to Nikunj Dalmia of ET NOW. Excerpts:
Where do you think we stand as far as the markets are concerned?
We stand in a fluid state because markets (Nifty) have had a tremendous rise from 2,700-2,500 to 4,700, and then corrected back to 4,200-4,300. And there’s no question that the economic scenario worldwide is still not out of the woods. After such a big rise, markets need to consolidate. I don’t think we’re going to make any major move either way prior to the Budget unless things internationally take an ugly turn, or there’s a big upswing. We’ll get the real direction post-Budget and depending on how things develop internationally. So, I’d say fluid. I won’t rule out Nifty going to 5,200-5,300. At the same, I won’t rule our it coming back to 3700.
Let’s take the conversation slightly backwards. From March 9 is roughly when global markets bottomed out. How have things looked? Oversold to overbought ? Or do you think a 10% movement here or there perhaps, and we would stabilise over a long-term basis.
I am hopeful that we would stabilise at 10% upwards or downwards. Either we have a bear market, which will last long and will correct the rise from 2900 to 21000. It will take a lot of time, or this fall was just a long-term correction of the bull market. I think this year at some point, you’ll have the Nifty around 6,000 and the Sensex around 19,000, though the situation is fluid and it could go either way. Maybe a year later, you’ll move upward and go above 6,000. Or we could come back to a level of say 3,200-3,700, and then you spend 2-3 years consolidate and then the market moves.
You got to be cherry-picking now. Time has gone. Low-hanging fruits have been plucked. If you miss the March-April-May, you got to think, look back and then perhaps start cherrypicking...
I wouldn’t say that. There could still be a lot of cherry-picking opportunities.
Well, it’s not my work to advise people in individual investments. But generally, I feel there are a lot of opportunities in the markets. It’s not that there is no opportunity.
You have two sides Rakesh. It’s rare to find the combination of a perfect trader and a great investor. Let’s look at both the sides. What is the investor in you telling you and what is the trader inside you indicating?
Well, the investor inside me is telling me that markets are going to consolidate more than anything else. The market needs reason to break or to go up, right? More reasons, right? Or more external data which is favourable or critical. As an investor, I have no doubt about India’s long-term growth story and the growth rates. I have all my wealth in Indian equity. And I think it will remain that way.
Last time when we interacted, you had indicated that you pretty much have investments across the board. Is that still your mantra? Be diversified and you’ve got investments which are spread across sectors?
Yeah. I have largely not changed my investments. They are the same.
Things are foggy for real estateand IT. What’s your sense, not purely on stock prices, but on earnings and your assessment. Let’s start with real estate. We can endlessly argue on both the sides that demand could come back. Some would say demand could never come back. They are leveraged companies.
Well I would like to stay away from real estate.
Why is that?
It’s a long story. They can’t get those lands back to those prices and I don’t think they can have those kind of margins. They are not used to paying taxes. You sell to associate companies and there is profit. I can’t understand all this. So it is better to stay away. I don’t know where the real-estate people want to raise money. Everybody wants to raise money to buy distress assets. So a person who has distress assets is raising money to buy distress assets. I don’t know why...About technology, I think it’s going to be neither a very bullish sector, nor a bearish one. It’s one of the defensive sectors. But I think shortly the performance of these companies — and this is my assessment and I don’t have a very good assessment, it’s just my impression — will be better than what people are predicting.
What is the one investment you really feel proud of when you look back? That really could be called as your favourite stock pick. I just want to understand how did you pick it?
No. The best is still to come. If you are trying to identify which is your favourite investment, it is like you are trying to say who do I love better — my daughter or my son.
Rupee drops to near six-week low
Rupee drops to near six-week low
Business Standard, June 26, 2009, Section II, Page 3
MONEY MARKET ROUND-UP
AGENCIES Mumbai
The rupee dropped to near the lowest level in almost six weeks on speculation the nation’s importers increased purchases of foreign exchange to settle month-end payments.
The currency, which weakened 0.1 per cent to 48.605 a dollar at the close, headed for the first monthly decline since February as refiners may have stepped up dollar purchases to pay for shipments of crude oil, with the commodity poised for a fifth month of gains.
Offshore forwards contracts indicate bets the rupee will trade at 48.69 to the dollar in a month, compared with expectations for a rate of 48.65 yesterday.
Forwards are agreements in which assets are bought and sold at current prices for future delivery. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in dollars rather than the local currency.
A rally in commodity prices may boost India’s import bill. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw Materials has advanced 22 per cent this year.
The rupee strengthened this morning on speculation overseas investors will boost purchases of emerging-market stocks amid signs a global recession is abating. The US yesterday reported an unexpected increase in durable goods orders for May, helping drive benchmark share indexes higher across most of the AsiaPacific region today.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1 per cent after the Federal Reserve said the pace of economic contraction in the world’s biggest economy is slowing and South Korea raised its gross domestic product forecast. Bonds halt two-day gain
Bonds halt two-day gain
Five-year bonds halted a two-day advance on speculation investors will pare holdings to raise cash for purchases at a government debt auction tomorrow.
Yields on securities due 2014 climbed earlier as the country prepared to sell as much as Rs 15,000 crore ($3.1 billion) of bonds as part of its borrowing programme that is budgeted to raise a record Rs 3.62 lakh crore in the financial year ending March 31.
The government has increased the sale size at six consecutive auctions by 25 per cent.
The yield on the 6.07 per cent note due May 2014 climbed as high as 6.59 per cent before closing little changed at 6.53 per cent at the close in Mumbai, according to the central bank’s trading system. The price per 100-rupee face amount was 98.08.
The cost of five-year swaps, or derivative contracts used to guard against rate fluctuations, fell. The rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, declined to 6.14 per cent from 6.19 per cent yesterday. Call rate ends lower
Call rate ends lower
Overnight money rates eased on Thursday as surplus funds in the banking system helped banks meet their reserve requirements comfortably. The one-day money ended at 3.00-3.10 per cent, below its previous close of 3.253.30 per cent.
Banks have to report their net liabilities to the central bank on alternate Fridays and keep 5 per cent of it with the central bank for the two weeks that follow.
Inflation rate stays in negative for the second week
Inflation rate stays in negative for the second week
The Hindu Business Line, June 26, 2009, Page 7
Wholesale Price Index for all commodities at 234.2.
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The inflation declined marginally by 1.14 per cent during the week ended June 13.
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Our Bureau, New Delhi
Wholesale price inflation continued in the negative for a second straight week. The annual WPI-based inflation declined by 1.14 per cent during the week ended June 13, easing marginally from the minus 1.61 per cent recorded in the previous week, according to a data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry here on Thursday.
Year-on-year inflation was recorded at 11.80 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.
The whole sale price index was 234.2 points for the week ended June 13 from 236.9 in the same week a year ago.
On a disaggregated basis, the Primary Articles group recorded a marginal decline in inflation during the latest reported week to 5.7 per cent from 5.8 per cent in the previous week.
Food items
In food articles, inflation fell to 8.65 per cent from 8.71 per cent in the week ended June 6, 2009 due to fall in inflation in cereals.
In non-food articles, inflation deepened to (-) 1.3 per cent from (-) 0.9 per cent in the earlier week. In the ‘minerals’ subgroup, inflation remained unchanged at 4.2 per cent for the third consecutive week.
In the fuel and power index, inflation eased fractionally from (-) 12.8 per cent in the week of June 6 to (-) 12.6 per cent in the current week.
Manufactured products
In manufactured products, inflation during the week ended June 13 accelerated by almost 80 basis points to 0.8 per cent, from 0 per cent in the previous week.
The increase is on account of textiles (cotton textiles), rubber and plastic products (tubes), chemicals and chemical products (drugs and medicines), and transport equipment and parts
Inflation in the food index, which has a cumulative weight of 25.43 per cent in the index, came down to 9.2 per cent from 9.4 per cent in the week ended June 6, 2009.
Inflation ruled higher in the sub-groups of pulses, eggs, meat and fish, condiments and spices in primary food articles, while the sub-group of sugar, khandsari and gur in manufactured food products continues to record rising double digit levels. However, inflation in edible oils has been negative since the beginning of 2009-10.
Falling wholesale prices are only a statistical feature and do not mean India is suffering from deflation, the RBI Governor, Mr D. Subbarao, said June 20.
For the week ended April 18, the final WPI for ‘All Commodities’ stood at 232.6 points as compared to the provisional estimate of 230.2 points and the annual rate of inflation based on final index, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 1.62 per cent as compared to the earlier estimate of 0.57 per cent.
We are seeing a huge demand for home loans
Business Standard, June 26, 2009, Section II, Page 2
Q&A: R R Nair, Director and chief executive, LIC Housing Finance
Sudeep Jain / Mumbai
After weathering the December quarter, when the liquidity crunch was at its peak, LIC Housing Finance recorded a healthy 37 per cent growth in net profit for 2008-09. RR Nair, director and chief executive, tells Sudeep Jain that the company has revised its growth target for the year.
How is business in this quarter?
This quarter has been very good for us and we are seeing a huge demand for home loans. In the first two months of this financial year, we disbursed around Rs 2,000 crore fresh loans, which translates into 50 per cent year-on-year growth. Loan approvals have increased at a much higher pace. And this growth has been driven by retail, not project finance. After the election results, a number of projects that were struggling due to lack of funds have come back on track. Builders appear to have become more confident and the market looks good.
Are there any particular markets where you are seeing good growth?
Yes, NCR (national capital region), Mumbai and Bangalore. These markets were the most affected by the demand slump that we saw towards the end of last year. In my view, home prices have more or less bottomed out and in a few months, we may even see them go upwards.
What is your growth target for the current year?
Earlier, we had set a target of 25 per cent growth in incremental advances. But considering the way the demand has picked up in the past few months, we may see 30-40 per cent growth.
What is you liabilities mix at the moment?
NCDs (non-convertible debentures) account for 48 per cent of our liabilities while bank term loans account for 30 per cent. The rest is a mix between commercial paper, National Housing Bank refinance and foreign borrowing.
How are you doing on cost of funds?
The December quarter was very tough for everyone and our cost of funds had gone up to 12 per cent. Now, it has come down to around 9 per cent. The cost of incremental advances is even lower, somewhere around 8 per cent.
With the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) at record lows, are you looking at raising funds through the external commercial borrowing route?
The LIBOR is quite low and the spreads are high, but add-on costs, such as the cost of hedging against currency fluctuations, are still quite high. Right now, domestic availability of funds is good. It doesn’t make sense to look overseas for funds unless there is a price advantage.
What is the situation on the non-performing assets (NPAs) front?
We have been consistently reducing our NPAs for the last four years. In 2005, gross NPAs were 4.6 per cent. At the end of the previous financial year, they were 1.07 per cent. This year, they will be below 1 per cent.
How is your new financial services company, LIC Housing Finance Financial Services, doing?
LICHFL started operations in April and has five offices. We will have 30 offices by the end of the second quarter. Over the next three-four years, we plan to set up 300-400 offices. The company will employ about 30,000 people. The company will help us improve our distribution reach — hopefully, it will double our distribution capacity and our business over the next three-four years.
Unitech net slides 28% at Rs 1,197 cr
The Financial Express, Corporates & Markets, June 26, 2009, Page 1
fe Bureau, New Delhi
The country’s second largest real estate developer, Unitech Ltd, on Thursday reported a 28% dip in its net profit at Rs 1,197.71 crore for the financial year 2008-09. The company's total income fell by 22.5% at Rs 3,315.84 crore. Net profit during the previous fiscal stood at Rs 1,661.86 crore while total income was Rs 4,280.11 crore. Unitech did not separately give its earnings for the fourth quarter (January-March) period.
Struck with the liquidity crunch and slip in demand for its high-end and luxury projects, the developer has joined the league of real estate developers embarking upon the low-cost housing projects to generate more cash flows.
Its rival, the country's largest real estate developer, DLF, too posted a decline in its earnings in April with its net profit for the year fell by 41% at Rs 4,629 crore, from Rs 7,812 crore in 2007-08. Revenues also plummeted by 28% at Rs 10,541 crore as against Rs 14,684 crore during the previous year.
Sanjay Chandra, managing director of Unitech said, "During the quarter, while continuing to take measures to address the liquidity issues, the company successfully reoriented its product mix towards affordable housing. The company's new projects in the affordable housing segment received overwhelming response from customers".
However, the announcement that its immediate debt position was not under stress as it has managed to reschedule its repayments and good response to its low-cost, affordable housing projects saw the company's shares on the BSE closing up 5.19% at Rs 82.05.
Of its total reserves of over Rs 4,800 crore in the balance sheet, the company held Rs 644 crore as cash reserves. Also the company held debt to the tune of Rs 9,000 crore at the end of the financial year. The company also declared a dividend of 5% for the fiscal ended March 31, 2009.
The company had raised $550 million in the last two months through share and asset sales, and its debt position was comfortable after rescheduling most of its loan, Chandra had earlier stated.
The company, which is planning to become the largest residential real estate developer in the country, said: "Enthused by the overwhelming response for our new projects, we have set a target to launch 30 million sqft of space in the current fiscal. Of this, we expect to get bookings for about 20 million sqft."
The company said it was confident of generating sufficient cash flows from the sale of real estate products as well as non-core asset sales to meet its debt obligations and for the construction and other expenses for the current fiscal.
The earning per share for the year was Rs 7.37 on an equity base of Rs 324.68 crore. Total paid-up capital was represented by 162.34 crore equity shares of the face value of Rs 2 each.
Earlier this week, Unitech had informed the stock exchanges that the promoters had revoked over 5 crore shares pledged with lenders, bringing down the total pledged stake to 24.42%.
The promoters held a 64.52% stake in the company in March. The founders had pledged about 80.83 crore shares or 49.79% to lenders. Following the revocation, the total pledged stake of the promoters has come down to 24.42%, according to the company.
Unitech net jumps 105% to Rs 280 cr
Unitech net jumps 105% to Rs 280 cr
The Economic Times, June 26, 2009, Page 15
Our Bureau NEW DELHI
REAL estate company Unitech has posted a 105% jump in net profit at Rs 280 crore and a 48% rise in net sales at Rs 752 crore for the fourth quarter ended March ‘09 supplemented by other income of Rs 300 crore. This other income was generated from the company’s joint ventures in real estate and telecom sectors.
It includes interest accrued on the capital deployed in the real estate JV and the telecom venture Unitech Wireless, besides the services provided by Unitech to its telecom joint venture, Unitech head of corporate planning R Nagraju said.
The services to Unitech Wireless comprised providing manpower as Telenor had still not hired people. Unitech had also lent around Rs 900 crore as debt to Unitech Wireless, 64% owned by Norway’s Telenor. Following the infusion of equity by Telenor, Unitech Wireless has repaid Rs 400 crore to Unitech.
Unitech, which for months had been struggling to repay debt, now says it’s comfortably placed to honour its commitments to service debt, following fund raising through a qualified institutional placement(QIP) and increased sale of mid and low income homes.
Unitech has used Rs 700 crore of the total Rs 1,680 crore raised through the QIP to repay debt. Rest of the funds are being deployed in projects, Mr Nagraju said. He said Rs 1,000 crore would be due for repayment in the next nine months. The company claimed to have sold around 3,000 mid-income houses in the past four months and stated that if the demand continue like this, it will generate surplus cash this fiscal.
Small town, big return
ET Realty, June 26, 2009, Page 1
Demand for houses in small towns have witnessed a spur in economic activities
Vivek Shukla
For three years, Sunil Negi, a banker, has been trying to fulfill his long cherished dream of purchasing a house of his own, either in Delhi or in Bhopal, the city of where his in-laws reside. But his budget of Rs 25 lakh was not enough to fulfill his dream. But he looked beyond these two cities to make his dream come true. Negi finally zeroed in on a property in Rudrapur, a small town in Uttarakhand. In the process, he has become one of the many buyers who are purchasing houses in smaller cities.
Rudrapur is among a host of towns like Almora, Bhiwadi, Neemrana, Ghaziabad, Haldwani, Meerut and Karnal that have started attracting buyers. Small cities closer to the big cities are responsible for revival in the realty market, albeit slowly. According to Sanjeev Shrivastava, director, Assotech group, their projects in Gwalior, Rudrapur and Bhubaneswar are getting huge response. Developers who are building projects in smaller cities are getting positive response.
"In places like Meerut, Rudrapur and Haldwani, a two bedroom apartment costs Rs 15 lakh to Rs 18 Lakh. It is within reach for working people," said Sanjay Shrivastava, a Delhi based journalist, who has recently booked a flat in Meerut. "The main reason for realty development at these places is that metro cities and many big cities have reached the saturation point," said Devinder Gupta, CMD, global realty consultancy Century 21 India
Experts say that in smaller places, land is still available at reasonable rates. Industries are coming up. There is overall development. Hence, one should not think twice to book flats in small towns. Those fetch good returns.
Sunil Jindal, CEO of SVP builders says, "It is high time that those who only search for their houses in metro cities should think of smaller towns. Even in Ghaziabad, one can buy good house at less than Rs 25 lakh. The very same flat you would not get less than Rs 50 lakh in Delhi." Interestingly, rather than the big players, the smaller ones are benefiting from the realty boom in smaller cities and towns, which have shown no sign of being affected by the slowdown that has otherwise gripped the realty sector.
Ansal FY09 net dips 81% to Rs 32.54 cr
Ansal FY09 net dips 81% to Rs 32.54 cr
The Economic Times, June 26, 2009, Page 15
MUMBAI: Ansal Properties & Infrastructure on Thursday reported a decline of 81.24% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 32.54 crore for the year ended March 2009, over the previous year. The company had a net profit of Rs 173.52 crore for the year ended March 31, 2008, Ansal Properties & Infrastructure said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange. Total sales of the company declined to Rs 740.97 crore for the year ended March 2009, from Rs 996.68 crore in the same period last year. The board of directors has proposed a dividend of 50 paise a piece for the year ended March 2009.—PTI