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Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Fiscal deficit likely at 5.5%
Fiscal deficit likely at 5.5%
Hindustan Times, February 2, 2010, Page 23
The fiscal deficit for 2010-11 is likely to be pegged at 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) as macroeconomic managers struggle to bring down government borrowings.
The fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected at 6.8 per cent this year.
The government had announced a series of measures, including tax breaks in many products, but many of these measures have left gaping hole in public finances, forcing the government to borrow a record Rs 4.51 lakh core.
“The deficit is expected to come down by 1.5 per cent every year amounting to about Rs 90,000 crore. This is a realistic target as expenditure pertaining to areas like the sixth pay commission implementation would be a one-time outflow,” an official, who did not wish to be identified, said.
While government expenses is set to cross Rs 11 lakh crore for the year mirroring the need for high public spending to spur growth, the government is banking on greater revenue buoyancy, on the back of a fast recovery in the broader economy, to rein in the fiscal deficit.
The economy has recovered faster than the government had anticipated.
Hindustan Times, February 2, 2010, Page 23
The fiscal deficit for 2010-11 is likely to be pegged at 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) as macroeconomic managers struggle to bring down government borrowings.
The fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected at 6.8 per cent this year.
The government had announced a series of measures, including tax breaks in many products, but many of these measures have left gaping hole in public finances, forcing the government to borrow a record Rs 4.51 lakh core.
“The deficit is expected to come down by 1.5 per cent every year amounting to about Rs 90,000 crore. This is a realistic target as expenditure pertaining to areas like the sixth pay commission implementation would be a one-time outflow,” an official, who did not wish to be identified, said.
While government expenses is set to cross Rs 11 lakh crore for the year mirroring the need for high public spending to spur growth, the government is banking on greater revenue buoyancy, on the back of a fast recovery in the broader economy, to rein in the fiscal deficit.
The economy has recovered faster than the government had anticipated.
Exports up 9.3%, imports turn positive after 11 months
Exports up 9.3%, imports turn positive after 11 months
Hindustan Times, February 2, 2010, Page 23
New Delhi: The country's exports grew 9.3 per cent in December, recording a positive growth for the second successive month after a 11-month-long contraction, triggering hopes that the worst might be over for embattled exporters.
Imports too grew by a robust 27.2 per cent after contracting for 11 consecutive months, mirroring growth in domestic activity as companies start expanding on growing consumer demand.
Overseas shipments touched $14.6 billion during the month compared to $13.4 billion clocked during the same month of the previous year, latest trade data released by the government on Monday showed.
President of Federation of Indian Export Organisation A. Sakthivel said the growth in imports reflects the effect of double-digit growth in the manufacturing sector.
Hindustan Times, February 2, 2010, Page 23
New Delhi: The country's exports grew 9.3 per cent in December, recording a positive growth for the second successive month after a 11-month-long contraction, triggering hopes that the worst might be over for embattled exporters.
Imports too grew by a robust 27.2 per cent after contracting for 11 consecutive months, mirroring growth in domestic activity as companies start expanding on growing consumer demand.
Overseas shipments touched $14.6 billion during the month compared to $13.4 billion clocked during the same month of the previous year, latest trade data released by the government on Monday showed.
President of Federation of Indian Export Organisation A. Sakthivel said the growth in imports reflects the effect of double-digit growth in the manufacturing sector.
WB pegs India growth at 7.5% for FY11
WB pegs India growth at 7.5% for FY11
Financial Express, February 2, 2010, Page 2
fe Bureaus, New Delhi
The World Bank added to the rising chorus of expectations of growth rates about the Indian economy, post the global economic slowdown. In its estimate for the year 2010-11 the bank said the Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.5 % next fiscal and the growth prospects remain strong, despite “muted recovery (that) will take several years to undo the damage”.
The Bank’s annual Global Economic Prospects 2010 released on Monday, said India “is expected to grow at 7.5-8 % in 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively, well above the 6.4 % average posted during 1995-2005”. RBI has already estimated growth in India at 7.5% for 2009-10. This comes at a time when the global recovery remains fragile and is expected to slow later this year as the impact of the fiscal stimulus measures wanes, it said.
Explaining the reasons for the growth of the economy, it says “India’s growth will benefit from the firming (up of) external demand, particularly resumption of growth in high-income countries”.
Foreign direct investment inflows to the country are expected to increase in 2010, the report said, adding this will be on the back of the recovery of the overall investment into the developing countries this year and as New Delhi improves its FDI policies.
The author of the report, Hans Timmer, who is the director of the World Bank Prospects Group said “India weathered the global crisis relatively well, in part due to the government’s quick response in easing monetary policy and counter-cyclical fiscal policy measures that supported domestic demand”. According to him the key challenge for the economy will be how successful it is in reducing its large fiscal deficit. “As private consumption gains momentum, India’s import volumes are likely to expand ..translating into a deterioration in the current account balance”. Incidentally for the current fiscal, the Bank had projected only a 6 % rate. Timmer said, the report was “not written yesterday. We just had the first quarter growth figures (6.1 %) when the report was written.”
Financial Express, February 2, 2010, Page 2
fe Bureaus, New Delhi
The World Bank added to the rising chorus of expectations of growth rates about the Indian economy, post the global economic slowdown. In its estimate for the year 2010-11 the bank said the Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.5 % next fiscal and the growth prospects remain strong, despite “muted recovery (that) will take several years to undo the damage”.
The Bank’s annual Global Economic Prospects 2010 released on Monday, said India “is expected to grow at 7.5-8 % in 2010-11 and 2011-12, respectively, well above the 6.4 % average posted during 1995-2005”. RBI has already estimated growth in India at 7.5% for 2009-10. This comes at a time when the global recovery remains fragile and is expected to slow later this year as the impact of the fiscal stimulus measures wanes, it said.
Explaining the reasons for the growth of the economy, it says “India’s growth will benefit from the firming (up of) external demand, particularly resumption of growth in high-income countries”.
Foreign direct investment inflows to the country are expected to increase in 2010, the report said, adding this will be on the back of the recovery of the overall investment into the developing countries this year and as New Delhi improves its FDI policies.
The author of the report, Hans Timmer, who is the director of the World Bank Prospects Group said “India weathered the global crisis relatively well, in part due to the government’s quick response in easing monetary policy and counter-cyclical fiscal policy measures that supported domestic demand”. According to him the key challenge for the economy will be how successful it is in reducing its large fiscal deficit. “As private consumption gains momentum, India’s import volumes are likely to expand ..translating into a deterioration in the current account balance”. Incidentally for the current fiscal, the Bank had projected only a 6 % rate. Timmer said, the report was “not written yesterday. We just had the first quarter growth figures (6.1 %) when the report was written.”
India to grow 7.5% next fiscal: World Bank
India to grow 7.5% next fiscal: World Bank
Economic Times, February 2, 2010, Page 9
NEW DELHI: The World Bank on Monday said that India is likely to grow at 7.5% in the next fiscal, while for the current fiscal its estimate is a modest 6%. This comes at a time when global recovery remains fragile and is expected to slow as the impact of the fiscal stimulus measures wanes. India is expected to grow at 7.5-8% in fiscal 2010-11 and 2011-12, well above the 6.4% average posted during 1995-2005, said the banks Global Economic Prospects 2010 report. The World Bank sees the economy growing at 6% in the current fiscal. Government’s quick response in easing monetary policy and counter-cyclical fiscal policy measures have supported domestic demand, said report’s author Hans Timmer, director World Bank Prospects Group.
Economic Times, February 2, 2010, Page 9
NEW DELHI: The World Bank on Monday said that India is likely to grow at 7.5% in the next fiscal, while for the current fiscal its estimate is a modest 6%. This comes at a time when global recovery remains fragile and is expected to slow as the impact of the fiscal stimulus measures wanes. India is expected to grow at 7.5-8% in fiscal 2010-11 and 2011-12, well above the 6.4% average posted during 1995-2005, said the banks Global Economic Prospects 2010 report. The World Bank sees the economy growing at 6% in the current fiscal. Government’s quick response in easing monetary policy and counter-cyclical fiscal policy measures have supported domestic demand, said report’s author Hans Timmer, director World Bank Prospects Group.
Parsvnath to infuse Rs 7-k cr in ongoing projects in 5 years
Parsvnath to infuse Rs 7-k cr in ongoing projects in 5 years
Financial Express, February 2, 2010, Page 4
fe Bureaus, New Delhi
Delhi-based realty firm Parsvnath Developers will invest Rs 7,000 crore over the next five years towards construction of its ongoing projects. The company also plans to raise up to Rs 300 crore through private equity by March-end. It would be done by diluting stakes to private equity firms at the project level. The company has begun talks with the private funds to this effect.
“We are currently developing 57 projects, with over 80 million sq ft of area, across the country. Of this, we have put 40 million sq ft on fast track to deliver within the next two years,” Parsvnath chairman Pradeep Jain said. Of the total area under construction, about 80% is housing and the rest commercial, he added. Parsvnath is expecting revenue to the tune of Rs 17,000 crore from these 57 projects.
Asked how the company plans to fund its projects, Jain said, “Mostly internal accruals and money coming from sales. We are not willing to increase our debt. In the next 2-3 fiscal, we foresee a debt free company.”
Meanwhile on Sunday, Parsvnath reported a robust jump of over four-fold in consolidated net profit at Rs 24.90 crore for third quarter ended December 31 against Rs 5.42 crore during the same period of the previous fiscal. Consolidated total revenue of the firm rose to Rs 305.28 crore during the third quarter of current financial year from Rs 92.77 crore of the corresponding period last fiscal.
The company’s gross debt as on December 31, 2009, stands at Rs 1,585 crore and it plans to bring it down by about Rs 100 crore in this quarter.
Parsvnath Developers to raise Rs 300 crore
Parsvnath Developers to raise Rs 300 crore
Business Standard, February 2, 2010, Page 2
BS Reporter/New Delhi
Realty company Parsvnath Developers plans to raise Rs 200-300 crore in the present quarter through private equity (PE) deals. It is in talks with a few PE companies and hopes to close two or three transactions within this quarter.
Gross debt as on December 31 was Rs 1,585 crore and it planned to bring this down by Rs 100 crore this quarter. This will be achieved by refunds from some state governments due to cancellation or stalled projects. The company also plans to launch three residential and one information technology park by the end of March, 2010.
Parsvnath reported an over four-fold increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 24.9 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, up from Rs 5.4 crore in the same quarter last year. The increase was primarily due to the completion of 37 projects, comprising 11.23 million sq ft.
The company said it would invest Rs 7,000 crore in the next five years in ongoing projects.
Business Standard, February 2, 2010, Page 2
BS Reporter/New Delhi
Realty company Parsvnath Developers plans to raise Rs 200-300 crore in the present quarter through private equity (PE) deals. It is in talks with a few PE companies and hopes to close two or three transactions within this quarter.
Gross debt as on December 31 was Rs 1,585 crore and it planned to bring this down by Rs 100 crore this quarter. This will be achieved by refunds from some state governments due to cancellation or stalled projects. The company also plans to launch three residential and one information technology park by the end of March, 2010.
Parsvnath reported an over four-fold increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 24.9 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, up from Rs 5.4 crore in the same quarter last year. The increase was primarily due to the completion of 37 projects, comprising 11.23 million sq ft.
The company said it would invest Rs 7,000 crore in the next five years in ongoing projects.
DLF: turning optimistic
DLF: turning optimistic
Financial Express, February 2, 2010, Page 6
Akash Joshi
The country’s leading real estate company DLF is seeing some improvement in the sentiment from the Street. Several analysts have upgraded their recommendations from the negative zone earlier. One of the reasons is the slow but steady uptick in real estate sales. DLF managed to recorded revenues worth Rs 2,030 crore in the December 2009 quarter, 16% higher that the September 2009, and 48% over the same quarter of the previous year. However, analysts are still not gung-ho as the operating margin was way below expectation at 41%, a sharp drop compared to the 56.5% in the December 2008 quarter and 52.2% on a sequential basis. The main reasons, cite analysts, is higher than expected revenue booking from lower margin areas, especially in the Chennai and New Gurgaon projects.
An increase of around 20% in employee costs (and other miscellaneous) also caused the margins to slump. In the December 2009 quarter, DLF sold around 3.1 million sq ft of projects with a mix of luxury, high-end and premium homes. And if the luxury market picks up further, the margins could stablise at earlier levels. Another trigger would be a pick up in office sales, which remains flat. In the first nine months of financial year 2009-10 DLF sold approximately 8.5 million sq ft of residential real estate and it is expected that the company would manage around 13.5 million sq ft and analysts would be watching out increased revenues in the last quarter.
DLF in December 2009 had announced the integration of its 100% interest in its main rental subsidiary DLF Cybercity with the holding company for DAL in a 60:40 share swap ratio. The successful listing of DAL on Singapore will boost the sentiment further. However, with interest rates coming under pressure any rate hikes would be the dampener.
Fitch retains India ratings, currency outlook still negative
Fitch retains India ratings, currency outlook still negative
Financial Express, February 2, 2010, Page 13
fe Bureaus, Mumbai
Global rating agency Fitch on Monday cautioned the government against the increasing fiscal deficit, even as it retained the current rating of the country at investment grade, which means the chances of sovereign default are comparatively low.
Fitch Ratings has retained the country’s rating at BBB-, which is an investment grade and three notches down from the highest grade. Fitch said India requires to consolidate its place in the ‘BBB’ range. The outlook on the long-term foreign currency IDR is stable, while that on the long-term local currency IDR is negative. The short-term foreign currency IDR is affirmed at ‘F3’ and the country ceiling at ‘BBB-’, says a study by Fitch, which was released on Monday.
The report adds that FY11 budget and the report of the thirteenth finance commission (13FC), both expected by end of February, would be important fiscal-policy statements. The Finance Commission was mandated to consider fundamental revenue-side reforms including introduction of a goods and services tax, and to recommend a new deficit-reduction framework. Fitch believes that India requires substantive fiscal reforms to address or offset the weaknesses exposed in FY09-FY10.
Commenting on the report, Andrew Colquhoun, director in Fitch’s Asia-Pacific Sovereign Group Fitch, said, “Fitch regards the deterioration in India’s public finances since 2008 as partly structural, putting negative pressure on the local currency rating that will require substantive fiscal reform to redress". However, talking about foreign currency ratings, Colquhoun added that it remain well supported by foreign investment prospects and by the world’s sixth-biggest stockpile of foreign reserves.
Country’s budget deficit rose in April-March 2009 to 11.6% of GDP, from 6.4% a year earlier, as revenues were eroded by tax cuts made as a stimulus measure. Fitch projects only a small reduction in the deficit to 10.7% of GDP for FY10, which takes the general government debt stock to a projected 83% of GDP by the end of FY10, undoing the results of the fiscal consolidation achieved since FY04. The government’s abandonment of the fiscal targets laid out in the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act of 2003 leaves India without a credible fiscal framework to constrain policy and reduce its debt ratios, says the report.
India's strong external finances, including its sovereign and overall net creditor status and the world's sixth-biggest stockpile of official reserves by end-2009 ($ 283bn, up 11% on a year earlier), continue to support the foreign currency ratings.
Fitch may downgrade India’s sovereign rating
Fitch may downgrade India’s sovereign rating
Economic Times, February 2, 2010, Page 14
Widening Fiscal Deficit Has Rating Agency Worried
Our Bureau MUMBAI
GLOBAL ratings firm Fitch has said it may downgrade India’s sovereign rating if the country’s fiscal deficit worsens. The rating agency has, however, retained its current local and foreign currency ratings.
Addressing the media in a teleconference, Andrew Colquhoun, director in Fitch’s Asia-Pacific Sovereign Group, said: “If we see further slippages in the Budget for FY11, that will encourage us to take (a ratings) action. Besides the fiscal position, Mr Coloquhom has also expressed concerns about India’s low ratings in World Bank’s governance indicators and also poor physical infrastructure. “Structural reforms aimed at tackling these weaknesses would support economic prospects and strengthen the sovereign credit profile,” he said.
In a statement issued on Monday, Fitch affirmed India’s long-term foreign and local currency ratings at ‘BBB-’, the lowest notch in investment grade, indicating adequate repayment capacity. Any future downgrade will tip India into the speculative grade category. While the outlook on its foreign currency bond rating is stable, that on longterm local currency rating is negative. The short-term foreign currency ratings at ‘F3’ also is the lowest notch investment grade rating, reflecting adequate repayment capacity. “Fitch regards the deterioration in India’s public finances since 2008 as partly structural, putting negative pressure on the local currency rating that will require substantive fiscal reform to redress,” Colquhoun said in a release. Fitch has also said the foreign currency ratings remain well-supported by foreign investment prospects and by the world’s sixth-biggest stockpile of foreign reserves.
India’s general government budget deficit rose in April-March 2009 (FY09) to 11.6% of GDP, from 6.4% a year earlier, on account of a combination of factors including the stimulus package of tax cuts and subsidies to contain high commodity prices, among others.
“The abandoning of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM 2003) leaves India without a credible fiscal framework to constrain policy and reduce its debt ratios”, it said.
Against this backdrop, the FY11 Budget and the report of the Thirteenth Finance Commission, both expected at end-February, will be important fiscal-policy statements. The Thirteenth Finance Commission was mandated to consider fundamental revenue-side reforms, including introduction of a goods and services tax, and to recommend a new deficit-reduction framework.
Notwithstanding fiscal weakness, the Indian economy continues to perform strongly, supporting the ratings. GDP growth is expected at 6.4% for FY10, strengthening to 7% in FY11. Global recovery supports India’s near-term economic prospects, with exports growth turning positive in November 2009 (+18% year on year).
Economic Times, February 2, 2010, Page 14
Widening Fiscal Deficit Has Rating Agency Worried
Our Bureau MUMBAI
GLOBAL ratings firm Fitch has said it may downgrade India’s sovereign rating if the country’s fiscal deficit worsens. The rating agency has, however, retained its current local and foreign currency ratings.
Addressing the media in a teleconference, Andrew Colquhoun, director in Fitch’s Asia-Pacific Sovereign Group, said: “If we see further slippages in the Budget for FY11, that will encourage us to take (a ratings) action. Besides the fiscal position, Mr Coloquhom has also expressed concerns about India’s low ratings in World Bank’s governance indicators and also poor physical infrastructure. “Structural reforms aimed at tackling these weaknesses would support economic prospects and strengthen the sovereign credit profile,” he said.
In a statement issued on Monday, Fitch affirmed India’s long-term foreign and local currency ratings at ‘BBB-’, the lowest notch in investment grade, indicating adequate repayment capacity. Any future downgrade will tip India into the speculative grade category. While the outlook on its foreign currency bond rating is stable, that on longterm local currency rating is negative. The short-term foreign currency ratings at ‘F3’ also is the lowest notch investment grade rating, reflecting adequate repayment capacity. “Fitch regards the deterioration in India’s public finances since 2008 as partly structural, putting negative pressure on the local currency rating that will require substantive fiscal reform to redress,” Colquhoun said in a release. Fitch has also said the foreign currency ratings remain well-supported by foreign investment prospects and by the world’s sixth-biggest stockpile of foreign reserves.
India’s general government budget deficit rose in April-March 2009 (FY09) to 11.6% of GDP, from 6.4% a year earlier, on account of a combination of factors including the stimulus package of tax cuts and subsidies to contain high commodity prices, among others.
“The abandoning of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM 2003) leaves India without a credible fiscal framework to constrain policy and reduce its debt ratios”, it said.
Against this backdrop, the FY11 Budget and the report of the Thirteenth Finance Commission, both expected at end-February, will be important fiscal-policy statements. The Thirteenth Finance Commission was mandated to consider fundamental revenue-side reforms, including introduction of a goods and services tax, and to recommend a new deficit-reduction framework.
Notwithstanding fiscal weakness, the Indian economy continues to perform strongly, supporting the ratings. GDP growth is expected at 6.4% for FY10, strengthening to 7% in FY11. Global recovery supports India’s near-term economic prospects, with exports growth turning positive in November 2009 (+18% year on year).
Survey indicates strong revival in manufacturing
Survey indicates strong revival in manufacturing
Business Standard, February 2, 2010, Page 1
BS Reporter / New Delhi
The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), one of the most reliable indices tracking the health of the manufacturing sector, climbed to its highest level in one-and-half years to 57.6 in January, 2010. The index had stood at 55.6 in December 2009.
“Any lingering concern that India’s manufacturing recovery was tailing off should be put off. A second consecutive rise in PMI has taken the series to a new cycle high consistent on double digit rise in industrial production,” said Robert Prior Wandesforde, Senior Asian economist, HSBC.
The positive results come against the backdrop of Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision last week to start tightening monetary policy by raising the cash reserve ratio 75 basis points. The central bank also expressed confidence in the robust rate of growth in industrial output.
According to latest government data, industrial output as measured by the index of industrial production (IIP) grew at a robust rate of 11.7 per cent in November.
Within the disaggregated data, the new export orders index showed a more than 5 point jump, the highest since October 2007.
“Production and new orders have both increased for ten straight months…domestic and foreign demand rose considerably since December. The improvement in external demand was noticeable, although total new business growth continued to increase at a rate above export orders,” said the report.
Companies reaped the benefit of increasing new orders which led them to step up their production levels. According to the HSBC Markit report, Indian manufacturers sharply raised their output levels during the month in line with the increase in new orders and the latest gains have been above the pre downturn averages.
“ The pick-up in exports is extremely heartening and it does point towards a sustainable trend of growth in manufacturing. Growth in industrial output will stay in double digits till the end of this financial year (2009-10) and the encouraging bit is that the composition of lead indicators of the economy are now becoming more and more broad- based,” said Jyotinder Kaur and economist with HDFC.
However, though manufacturing output has gathered momentum, the recovery in employment is yet to gain traction. The index showed a “slight” increase in industry employment in January on the back of higher production requirement and capacity constraints. Although weak, the report states that the increase in employment index was the strongest in almost a year and a half.
Business Standard, February 2, 2010, Page 1
BS Reporter / New Delhi
The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), one of the most reliable indices tracking the health of the manufacturing sector, climbed to its highest level in one-and-half years to 57.6 in January, 2010. The index had stood at 55.6 in December 2009.
“Any lingering concern that India’s manufacturing recovery was tailing off should be put off. A second consecutive rise in PMI has taken the series to a new cycle high consistent on double digit rise in industrial production,” said Robert Prior Wandesforde, Senior Asian economist, HSBC.
The positive results come against the backdrop of Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision last week to start tightening monetary policy by raising the cash reserve ratio 75 basis points. The central bank also expressed confidence in the robust rate of growth in industrial output.
According to latest government data, industrial output as measured by the index of industrial production (IIP) grew at a robust rate of 11.7 per cent in November.
Within the disaggregated data, the new export orders index showed a more than 5 point jump, the highest since October 2007.
“Production and new orders have both increased for ten straight months…domestic and foreign demand rose considerably since December. The improvement in external demand was noticeable, although total new business growth continued to increase at a rate above export orders,” said the report.
Companies reaped the benefit of increasing new orders which led them to step up their production levels. According to the HSBC Markit report, Indian manufacturers sharply raised their output levels during the month in line with the increase in new orders and the latest gains have been above the pre downturn averages.
“ The pick-up in exports is extremely heartening and it does point towards a sustainable trend of growth in manufacturing. Growth in industrial output will stay in double digits till the end of this financial year (2009-10) and the encouraging bit is that the composition of lead indicators of the economy are now becoming more and more broad- based,” said Jyotinder Kaur and economist with HDFC.
However, though manufacturing output has gathered momentum, the recovery in employment is yet to gain traction. The index showed a “slight” increase in industry employment in January on the back of higher production requirement and capacity constraints. Although weak, the report states that the increase in employment index was the strongest in almost a year and a half.
RBI hints at curbs on capital inflows
RBI hints at curbs on capital inflows
Economic Times, February 2, 2010, Page 1
Calls For Measures To Avoid Stark Economic Imbalances
Our Bureau MUMBAI
RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao has for the first time said the nation “may have to take some measures towards capital control” in the short term to avoid stark economic imbalances after acknowledging in the past the role played by fund flows in worsening inflation, boosting asset prices and destroying industry competitiveness.
The governor has laid the foundation for possible action by drawing attention to the fact that most emerging markets face unprecedented flows that are pushing up commodity prices, asset prices and disturbing exchange rates to the disadvantage of local industry.
“All emerging market economies now believe that capital inflows will increase in the months ahead,” Mr Subbarao said in a teleconference on Monday, the first such event in RBI’s history. “If that happens, based on India’s growth prospects, it is possible that the inflows will be much beyond our current account deficit. In the medium term, it is our objective that India expand its capacity to absorb capital flows, but in the short term, should there be flows largely in excess of our current account deficit... we may have to take some measures towards capital control.”
The RBI governor and the government have been preparing the ground for some kind of action on capital inflows for some time now as $17 billion of funds flowing into Indian equities last year pushed up the rupee over 10% since March-end, making Indian exports lose out to Chinese rivals.
Tide seems to be turning
SOARING prices, mainly in real estate, are partly due to inflows.
The prospects of more than 8% GDP growth and government bond yields nudging 8% at a time when rates continue to be near-zero in developed markets are luring global funds. Finance secretary Ashok Chawla and Mr Subbarao in the past have acknowledged the potential problems due to inflows, but maintained that there was no cause for concern.
Now the tide seems to be turning.
“An implicit premise in the latest monetary policy announced by RBI is higher capital flows into India and the need to actively intervene in the markets; this has a bearing for liquidity in the local markets and hence we expect the central bank to be actively managing liquidity with an eye on the emerging capital flow situation,” said Hemant Mishr, head of global markets-South Asia at Standard Chartered Bank.
The central bank has been changing gears. “The endeavour in the EMEs will be to strengthen the recovery process without compromising on price stability and to contain asset price inflation stemming from large capital inflows,” RBI said in its economic review released on Thursday. It followed up with the same assertion while reviewing the monetary policy the next day saying, “sharp increase in capital inflows, above the absorptive capacity of the economy, may complicate exchange rate and monetary management”.
Although inflows have caused problems for policymakers in the past, it is a taboo to publicly state that they may be curbed. This is probably the first time since January 2005 that the RBI governor is talking about some measures to control capital flows. In 2005, governor YV Reddy had in a veiled manner suggested containing inflows, but later clarified he did not mean that. But recently, countries such as Taiwan and Brasil in a limited way have imposed what is popularly known, but disliked by many, as the Tobin Tax—a tax on a transaction to deter speculation. “What’s clear from the governor’s comments is that he is worried about higher government borrowing pushing up yields, which in turn could attract more capital,” said the head of treasury with a foreign bank.
There may not be a tax, or a blunt measure straightaway, but tinkering with many instruments as it has done in the past such as capping interest on NRI deposits, limiting foreign investment in corporate and sovereign debt, and directing the end use of funds raised overseas.
But the governor said he hasn’t made up his mind on which stick to beat with. “We will look at all those measures and also at what other emerging market economies are doing. We will learn from their experience,” he said.
Economic Times, February 2, 2010, Page 1
Calls For Measures To Avoid Stark Economic Imbalances
Our Bureau MUMBAI
RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao has for the first time said the nation “may have to take some measures towards capital control” in the short term to avoid stark economic imbalances after acknowledging in the past the role played by fund flows in worsening inflation, boosting asset prices and destroying industry competitiveness.
The governor has laid the foundation for possible action by drawing attention to the fact that most emerging markets face unprecedented flows that are pushing up commodity prices, asset prices and disturbing exchange rates to the disadvantage of local industry.
“All emerging market economies now believe that capital inflows will increase in the months ahead,” Mr Subbarao said in a teleconference on Monday, the first such event in RBI’s history. “If that happens, based on India’s growth prospects, it is possible that the inflows will be much beyond our current account deficit. In the medium term, it is our objective that India expand its capacity to absorb capital flows, but in the short term, should there be flows largely in excess of our current account deficit... we may have to take some measures towards capital control.”
The RBI governor and the government have been preparing the ground for some kind of action on capital inflows for some time now as $17 billion of funds flowing into Indian equities last year pushed up the rupee over 10% since March-end, making Indian exports lose out to Chinese rivals.
Tide seems to be turning
SOARING prices, mainly in real estate, are partly due to inflows.
The prospects of more than 8% GDP growth and government bond yields nudging 8% at a time when rates continue to be near-zero in developed markets are luring global funds. Finance secretary Ashok Chawla and Mr Subbarao in the past have acknowledged the potential problems due to inflows, but maintained that there was no cause for concern.
Now the tide seems to be turning.
“An implicit premise in the latest monetary policy announced by RBI is higher capital flows into India and the need to actively intervene in the markets; this has a bearing for liquidity in the local markets and hence we expect the central bank to be actively managing liquidity with an eye on the emerging capital flow situation,” said Hemant Mishr, head of global markets-South Asia at Standard Chartered Bank.
The central bank has been changing gears. “The endeavour in the EMEs will be to strengthen the recovery process without compromising on price stability and to contain asset price inflation stemming from large capital inflows,” RBI said in its economic review released on Thursday. It followed up with the same assertion while reviewing the monetary policy the next day saying, “sharp increase in capital inflows, above the absorptive capacity of the economy, may complicate exchange rate and monetary management”.
Although inflows have caused problems for policymakers in the past, it is a taboo to publicly state that they may be curbed. This is probably the first time since January 2005 that the RBI governor is talking about some measures to control capital flows. In 2005, governor YV Reddy had in a veiled manner suggested containing inflows, but later clarified he did not mean that. But recently, countries such as Taiwan and Brasil in a limited way have imposed what is popularly known, but disliked by many, as the Tobin Tax—a tax on a transaction to deter speculation. “What’s clear from the governor’s comments is that he is worried about higher government borrowing pushing up yields, which in turn could attract more capital,” said the head of treasury with a foreign bank.
There may not be a tax, or a blunt measure straightaway, but tinkering with many instruments as it has done in the past such as capping interest on NRI deposits, limiting foreign investment in corporate and sovereign debt, and directing the end use of funds raised overseas.
But the governor said he hasn’t made up his mind on which stick to beat with. “We will look at all those measures and also at what other emerging market economies are doing. We will learn from their experience,” he said.
Imports rise 27%, confirm economy back on track
Imports rise 27%, confirm economy back on track
Economic Times, February 2, 2010, Page 9
22.4% Rise In Non-Oil Imports In Dec Reflects Manufacturing Growth
Our Bureau NEW DELHI
IMPORTS moved back to the positive terrain for the first time since the financial crisis, clocking a 27% growth in December, indicating that the domestic economy was well on its way to recovery, aided by rapidly improving exports that grew for the second successive month.
“Trade has now fallen in line with all other indicators of the economy that had already started improving,” said Crisil chief economist D K Joshi, adding that trade was the last indicator to improve as it is linked to the global economy. The strong 22.4% rise in non-oil imports, after a steady fall for more than a year, reflects an increase in manufacturing and investment activity in the country, as the bulk of imports is industrial inputs and capital goods.
Capital goods accounted for nearly 16% of imports in the year 2008-09.
The near double digit growth in exports in December 2009 from a year ago, albeit from a low base, suggests a demand pick-up in the Western markets, including both the EU and the US.
The pick up in exports should boost manufacturing and thereby the overall industrial growth, which was a strong 11.7% in November, 2009.
This (rise in non-oil imports) coupled with the recovery in exports bodes well for the growth momentum,” said Citi economists Rohini Malkani and Anushka Shah in a research note. The recently provided additional stimulus to labour-intensive export sectors that had not responded well to the packages announced earlier is also expected to contribute to positive growth.
“We believe that exports would keep moving uphill and we can touch $170 billion by the end of the fiscal,” said Ajay Sahai, director general, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (Fieo).
There is an increase in import of both capital goods for manufacturing in general and power equipment as the country is implementing a large number of power projects.
“This is a good sign as it indicates that manufacturing will continue to post a double digit growth that will ultimately result in a higher GDP,” Mr Sahai added.
Oil imports in December 2009 stood at $6.5 billion, 42.8% higher than $ 4.58 billion in the corresponding period last year. India’s exports had turned positive in October 2009 after falling continuously for 13 months. Imports, which had slipped into the negative territory a little later, took that much longer to recover and post a postive growth.
Due to a higher increase in imports in December 2009, the trade deficit widened to $10.1 billion, which is the highest since November 2008. Trade deficit for the nine month period narrowed to $76.2 billion, compared to $106 billion last year.
Economic Times, February 2, 2010, Page 9
22.4% Rise In Non-Oil Imports In Dec Reflects Manufacturing Growth
Our Bureau NEW DELHI
IMPORTS moved back to the positive terrain for the first time since the financial crisis, clocking a 27% growth in December, indicating that the domestic economy was well on its way to recovery, aided by rapidly improving exports that grew for the second successive month.
“Trade has now fallen in line with all other indicators of the economy that had already started improving,” said Crisil chief economist D K Joshi, adding that trade was the last indicator to improve as it is linked to the global economy. The strong 22.4% rise in non-oil imports, after a steady fall for more than a year, reflects an increase in manufacturing and investment activity in the country, as the bulk of imports is industrial inputs and capital goods.
Capital goods accounted for nearly 16% of imports in the year 2008-09.
The near double digit growth in exports in December 2009 from a year ago, albeit from a low base, suggests a demand pick-up in the Western markets, including both the EU and the US.
The pick up in exports should boost manufacturing and thereby the overall industrial growth, which was a strong 11.7% in November, 2009.
This (rise in non-oil imports) coupled with the recovery in exports bodes well for the growth momentum,” said Citi economists Rohini Malkani and Anushka Shah in a research note. The recently provided additional stimulus to labour-intensive export sectors that had not responded well to the packages announced earlier is also expected to contribute to positive growth.
“We believe that exports would keep moving uphill and we can touch $170 billion by the end of the fiscal,” said Ajay Sahai, director general, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (Fieo).
There is an increase in import of both capital goods for manufacturing in general and power equipment as the country is implementing a large number of power projects.
“This is a good sign as it indicates that manufacturing will continue to post a double digit growth that will ultimately result in a higher GDP,” Mr Sahai added.
Oil imports in December 2009 stood at $6.5 billion, 42.8% higher than $ 4.58 billion in the corresponding period last year. India’s exports had turned positive in October 2009 after falling continuously for 13 months. Imports, which had slipped into the negative territory a little later, took that much longer to recover and post a postive growth.
Due to a higher increase in imports in December 2009, the trade deficit widened to $10.1 billion, which is the highest since November 2008. Trade deficit for the nine month period narrowed to $76.2 billion, compared to $106 billion last year.
NAREDCO opens eastern region office in Bhubaneswar
NAREDCO opens eastern region office in Bhubaneswar
BS Reporter/Kolkata - Feb 02,2010 00:50 AM
National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO) under the Union Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation on Saturday opened its eastern regional office in the city. This is the fifth regional office of NAREDCO in the country after Mumbai, Hyderabad, Jaipur and Delhi.
NAREDCO's regional office in the city was inaugurated by Arun Panda, secretary, housing and urban development of the Orissa government in the presence of Sanjeev Srivastav, senior vice president, NAREDCO; D K Singh, vice chairman, BDA; Gadadhar Parida, commissioner, Bhubaneswar Municipal Corporation and R Nanda, vice chairman, Cuttack Development Authority.
BS Reporter/Kolkata - Feb 02,2010 00:50 AM
National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO) under the Union Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation on Saturday opened its eastern regional office in the city. This is the fifth regional office of NAREDCO in the country after Mumbai, Hyderabad, Jaipur and Delhi.
NAREDCO's regional office in the city was inaugurated by Arun Panda, secretary, housing and urban development of the Orissa government in the presence of Sanjeev Srivastav, senior vice president, NAREDCO; D K Singh, vice chairman, BDA; Gadadhar Parida, commissioner, Bhubaneswar Municipal Corporation and R Nanda, vice chairman, Cuttack Development Authority.
National Real Estate Development Council's Regional office inaugurated in Orissa
National Real Estate Development Council's Regional office inaugurated in Orissa
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Report by Dipti Ranjan Kanungo, Bhubaneswar:
The National Real Estate Development Council's Regional (East) office and Orissa Chapter of the council inaugurated here on Saturday by the Commissioner Cum Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Dr Arun Kumar Panda . The
inauguration ceremony tookplace at Hotel May Fair Lagoon in presence of more than 200 guests from all over the country.
NAREDCO's Regional office would promote the development of real estate throught Eastern and Northern India and shall act as an interface between central government and state government , local authorities and boards on one hand and regional real estate developers ,buyers ,financial instituations,banks, real estate agents on the other hand . It will also help in promoting the concepts of 'affordable housing' and 'sustainable development' in this region.Newly appointed Vice President of the Regional office (East) Mr Anup Mohapatra a renowned real estate czar from the state.
The Regional office at Bhubaneswar has just been inaugurated and rest of the regional offices will be established during remaining months of the first quarter of 2010.
Orissa Chapter of NAREDCO is jointly formed by the state government and the private sector enterprises involved in various facets of real estate development and operate at Orissa state. level as governed by NAREDCO constitution. The Chief Minister of the state would be the chief Patron and Secretaries of Ministries like Urban Development , Housing, LSG, and Finance would be the members of the Governing council of this state chapter. Housing Board, Development Authorities and other state bodies involved in housing and real estate development would also be the members along with real estate developers , housing finance institutions and brokerage firms working in Orissa.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Report by Dipti Ranjan Kanungo, Bhubaneswar:
The National Real Estate Development Council's Regional (East) office and Orissa Chapter of the council inaugurated here on Saturday by the Commissioner Cum Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Dr Arun Kumar Panda . The
inauguration ceremony tookplace at Hotel May Fair Lagoon in presence of more than 200 guests from all over the country.NAREDCO's Regional office would promote the development of real estate throught Eastern and Northern India and shall act as an interface between central government and state government , local authorities and boards on one hand and regional real estate developers ,buyers ,financial instituations,banks, real estate agents on the other hand . It will also help in promoting the concepts of 'affordable housing' and 'sustainable development' in this region.Newly appointed Vice President of the Regional office (East) Mr Anup Mohapatra a renowned real estate czar from the state.
The Regional office at Bhubaneswar has just been inaugurated and rest of the regional offices will be established during remaining months of the first quarter of 2010.
Orissa Chapter of NAREDCO is jointly formed by the state government and the private sector enterprises involved in various facets of real estate development and operate at Orissa state. level as governed by NAREDCO constitution. The Chief Minister of the state would be the chief Patron and Secretaries of Ministries like Urban Development , Housing, LSG, and Finance would be the members of the Governing council of this state chapter. Housing Board, Development Authorities and other state bodies involved in housing and real estate development would also be the members along with real estate developers , housing finance institutions and brokerage firms working in Orissa.
Naredco to open regional office
Naredco to open regional office
By Express News Service
29 Jan 2010 05:05:00 AM IST
BHUBANESWAR: National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO) of the Union Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation is all set to open its Regional Office (East) and launch the Orissa chapter of the Council in Bhubaneswar on Saturday. It would be the fifth regional office in the country after Mumbai, Hyderabad, Jaipur and Delhi.
As the nodal agency for housing and real estate sector in India, Naredco’s activities range from legislative, legal and regulation issues to commercial ones. The Bhubaneswar regional office would benefit all stakeholders of the sector from buyers, financial institutions, banks, Government, realtors, etc, operating in the Eastern and North- Eastern states. It would have jurisdictional control over Orissa, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and North-East states.
© Copyright 2008 ExpressBuzz
By Express News Service
29 Jan 2010 05:05:00 AM IST
BHUBANESWAR: National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO) of the Union Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation is all set to open its Regional Office (East) and launch the Orissa chapter of the Council in Bhubaneswar on Saturday. It would be the fifth regional office in the country after Mumbai, Hyderabad, Jaipur and Delhi.
As the nodal agency for housing and real estate sector in India, Naredco’s activities range from legislative, legal and regulation issues to commercial ones. The Bhubaneswar regional office would benefit all stakeholders of the sector from buyers, financial institutions, banks, Government, realtors, etc, operating in the Eastern and North- Eastern states. It would have jurisdictional control over Orissa, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and North-East states.
© Copyright 2008 ExpressBuzz
Government to introduce new slum policy
Government to introduce new slum policy
By Express News Service
31 Jan 2010 05:50:00 AM IST
BHUBANESWAR: The State Government is all set to introduce a new policy and strategy on slum-dwellers soon.
Calling the builders to take advantage of various schemes of the Centre towards providing low-cost housing for the economically weaker sections, middle class and urban poor, Urban Development Secretary Arun Kumar Panda today said while thinking about profit margins from big projects, the realtors must come forward with unique and low-cost projects to help the needy.
Speaking at the inauguration of fifth regional office of National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO) here, Panda said a trust building atmosphere between the people and the realtors must be developed in the region.
He also advised stakeholders of NAREDCO to bring new ideas and suggestions to the notice of the Government so that a proper road map can be laid and a time line is set to address housing problems in the Capital and other emerging urban pockets of the State.
As recognition to its growth status and future potential in the entire eastern region, the Temple City today got the opportunity to have a regional centre of NAREDCO after Mumbai, Hyderabad, Jaipur and New Delhi. The Orissa Chapter of the national body was also inaugurated on the occasion.
BDA vice-chairman DK Singh said as according to the new comprehensive development plan of the city, a tremendous potential is likely to be tapped by stakeholders involved in urban housing, NAREDCO can be the proper platform to build a credible interface in this regard.
While BMC Commissioner Gadadhar Parida hinted at making the Capital a slum-free zone by adopting a proper planning for 377 habitations, his Cuttack counterpart RN Nanda said quality control must be the new mantra for builders.
Vice-president, NAREDCO eastern chapter, Anup Mohapatra called for a better coordination among all stakeholders.
NAREDCO president Rohtas Goel spoke.
© Copyright 2008 ExpressBuzz
By Express News Service
31 Jan 2010 05:50:00 AM IST
BHUBANESWAR: The State Government is all set to introduce a new policy and strategy on slum-dwellers soon.
Calling the builders to take advantage of various schemes of the Centre towards providing low-cost housing for the economically weaker sections, middle class and urban poor, Urban Development Secretary Arun Kumar Panda today said while thinking about profit margins from big projects, the realtors must come forward with unique and low-cost projects to help the needy.
Speaking at the inauguration of fifth regional office of National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO) here, Panda said a trust building atmosphere between the people and the realtors must be developed in the region.
He also advised stakeholders of NAREDCO to bring new ideas and suggestions to the notice of the Government so that a proper road map can be laid and a time line is set to address housing problems in the Capital and other emerging urban pockets of the State.
As recognition to its growth status and future potential in the entire eastern region, the Temple City today got the opportunity to have a regional centre of NAREDCO after Mumbai, Hyderabad, Jaipur and New Delhi. The Orissa Chapter of the national body was also inaugurated on the occasion.
BDA vice-chairman DK Singh said as according to the new comprehensive development plan of the city, a tremendous potential is likely to be tapped by stakeholders involved in urban housing, NAREDCO can be the proper platform to build a credible interface in this regard.
While BMC Commissioner Gadadhar Parida hinted at making the Capital a slum-free zone by adopting a proper planning for 377 habitations, his Cuttack counterpart RN Nanda said quality control must be the new mantra for builders.
Vice-president, NAREDCO eastern chapter, Anup Mohapatra called for a better coordination among all stakeholders.
NAREDCO president Rohtas Goel spoke.
© Copyright 2008 ExpressBuzz
Monday, February 1, 2010
Monetary policy review indicates economy on growth path
Monetary policy review indicates economy on growth path
Economic Times, Financial Times, January 31, 2010, Page 1
Vikas Agarwal, ET Bureau
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a 75 basis points (0.75 percent) hike in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its policy review on Friday last. The RBI has kept other policy levers -repo rate, reverse repo rate and bank rate unchanged.
This means the banks will have to keep more in deposit with the RBI. Hence, it will result in drawing out around Rs 36,000 crores from the system.
The RBI's move has come as an unpleasant surprise for the markets as most analysts and fund houses were expecting a 50 basis points hike in the CRR as against the 75 announced.
These are some of the significant aspects of this move:
Impact on liquidity
At present, the domestic economy is dealing with a situation of excess liquidity. Liquidity has gone up due to funds coming in from foreign investors.
This excess liquidity is one of the reasons for the higher inflation, and a hike in the CRR will help in drawing out some of the excess liquidity from the system, and hence in maintaining a balance.
Impact on inflation
The inflation rate has been rising sharply since the last few months. The main reasons that contribute to a higher inflation rate are higher prices of food articles, more liquidity in the system and the lower base effect of last year. This move by the RBI will not have much of an impact on the supply-driven food price inflation.
Also, nothing can be done about the lower base effect of last year. However, it will contain the price rise due to excess money in the system (demand pull inflation).
The RBI has also hiked its expected inflation target for the end of this fiscal year (March 2010) from 6.5 percent to 8.5 percent. This indicates that the RBI feels the CRR hike alone cannot control inflation completely. However, it will help in moderating it.
Impact on credit off-take
The credit off-take in the retail category was quite low. It has picked up slightly during the last couple of months due to the festival season and a number of attractive offers floated by banks.
The hike in the CRR will have some effect on credit growth. The RBI has lowered its credit growth forecast from 18 to 16 percent, in line with expectations.
Impact on interest rates
The hike in the CRR will leave less money with bank to lend. Therefore, indirectly, their cost of funds goes up and there is a case to increase the interest rates.
However, the lower credit offtake and excess liquidity in the system could work in favour of keeping the rates unchanged in the retail loan segment. Many banks have already announced that they will not increase the rates, and will maintain them at the current levels.
However, in the light of this CRR hike, the process of fresh lending is expected to further tighten, and interest rates may go up in the medium term, if certain parameters change further.
Indicators
In this monetary policy review, the RBI has given a clear signal that the domestic economy is back on the growth path. Hence the moves to reverse the expansionary policy stand, which was more-suited for the crisis kind of situation prevalent earlier.
The RBI has started the tightening in order to prevent the economy from overheating. The RBI has also revised its financial year 2011 GDP growth forecast upwards from six to 7.5 percent.
Economic Times, Financial Times, January 31, 2010, Page 1
Vikas Agarwal, ET Bureau
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a 75 basis points (0.75 percent) hike in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its policy review on Friday last. The RBI has kept other policy levers -repo rate, reverse repo rate and bank rate unchanged.
This means the banks will have to keep more in deposit with the RBI. Hence, it will result in drawing out around Rs 36,000 crores from the system.
The RBI's move has come as an unpleasant surprise for the markets as most analysts and fund houses were expecting a 50 basis points hike in the CRR as against the 75 announced.
These are some of the significant aspects of this move:
Impact on liquidity
At present, the domestic economy is dealing with a situation of excess liquidity. Liquidity has gone up due to funds coming in from foreign investors.
This excess liquidity is one of the reasons for the higher inflation, and a hike in the CRR will help in drawing out some of the excess liquidity from the system, and hence in maintaining a balance.
Impact on inflation
The inflation rate has been rising sharply since the last few months. The main reasons that contribute to a higher inflation rate are higher prices of food articles, more liquidity in the system and the lower base effect of last year. This move by the RBI will not have much of an impact on the supply-driven food price inflation.
Also, nothing can be done about the lower base effect of last year. However, it will contain the price rise due to excess money in the system (demand pull inflation).
The RBI has also hiked its expected inflation target for the end of this fiscal year (March 2010) from 6.5 percent to 8.5 percent. This indicates that the RBI feels the CRR hike alone cannot control inflation completely. However, it will help in moderating it.
Impact on credit off-take
The credit off-take in the retail category was quite low. It has picked up slightly during the last couple of months due to the festival season and a number of attractive offers floated by banks.
The hike in the CRR will have some effect on credit growth. The RBI has lowered its credit growth forecast from 18 to 16 percent, in line with expectations.
Impact on interest rates
The hike in the CRR will leave less money with bank to lend. Therefore, indirectly, their cost of funds goes up and there is a case to increase the interest rates.
However, the lower credit offtake and excess liquidity in the system could work in favour of keeping the rates unchanged in the retail loan segment. Many banks have already announced that they will not increase the rates, and will maintain them at the current levels.
However, in the light of this CRR hike, the process of fresh lending is expected to further tighten, and interest rates may go up in the medium term, if certain parameters change further.
Indicators
In this monetary policy review, the RBI has given a clear signal that the domestic economy is back on the growth path. Hence the moves to reverse the expansionary policy stand, which was more-suited for the crisis kind of situation prevalent earlier.
The RBI has started the tightening in order to prevent the economy from overheating. The RBI has also revised its financial year 2011 GDP growth forecast upwards from six to 7.5 percent.
Interest rates expected to hold steady in near term
Interest rates expected to hold steady in near term
Economic Times, Financial Times, January 31, 2010, Page 3
There is adequate liquidity and interest rates will not move in the near future, says Ashish Gupta
The stock markets were keenly following the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for moves to reign in inflation and ensure growth. This was for the simple reason that the inflation rate has been rising consistently. Interest rates and credit are important constituents for industry. Corporate performance is to a great extent tied up with the availability of credit and the cost at which it is available. Inflation is a major concern.
So, the RBI had the tough task of balancing growth and liquidity. In the credit policy review it has left its short-term interest rates unchanged, but raised the cash reserve requirements of banks by a higher-than-expected 75 basis points, to be implemented in two phases. It also warned of rising inflation. The RBI has increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points as against market expectation of 50. It has clearly indicated its intention to control inflation.
The RBI said it will anchor inflation expectations and keep a vigil on the trends in inflation, and be prepared to respond swiftly and effectively through policy adjustments as warranted. Further, the RBI will actively manage liquidity to ensure that credit demands of productive sectors are adequately met. It will also maintain an interest rate environment consistent with price and financial stability, and in support of the growth process.
The RBI has also hiked its forecast for GDP growth in the current year to 7.5 percent, from an earlier target of six percent, and said the current rate of growth is likely to be sustained in the financial year that ends March 2011.
The RBI had earlier pegged the growth rate at six percent and inflation at 6.5 percent. Assuming a near-zero growth in agricultural production and continued recovery in industrial production and services sectors, the baseline projection for gross domestic product growth for 2009-10 is now raised to 7.5 percent. Keeping in view the global trend in commodity prices and the domestic demand-supply balance, the baseline projection for wholesale price inflation for end-March 2010 is now raised to 8.5 percent. On the assumption of normal monsoon and global oil prices remaining around the current level, it is expected inflation will moderate from July.
As an outcome, banks will start exercising a little more caution keeping in mind the fact that the RBI is so concerned about inflation. Banks are not expected to hike the rates immediately because there is excess liquidity in the system. The industry does not foresee interest rates going up in the near future because of the expected inflows and the liquidity condition at present.
The fact that interest rates have not been increased will continue to spur demand. There was a lot of anxiety on whether the government will pull back the various stimulus measures. The fact that interest rates have not been changed will now put the industry at ease.
The net impact on stock markets is expected to be neutral in the near term. With the raised GDP growth projections, the industry demand is expected to grow. Also, as the interest rates are expected to remain at their present levels in the near future, business plans of corporates will not be affected adversely.
All this may not impact the stock markets negatively. Especially so because the interest rate sensitive sectors may not be adversely impacted as the impact on interest rates would be just marginal, if any.
However, in case the inflation rate does not come under control, the RBI would have to step in with tougher measures.
Economic Times, Financial Times, January 31, 2010, Page 3
There is adequate liquidity and interest rates will not move in the near future, says Ashish Gupta
The stock markets were keenly following the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for moves to reign in inflation and ensure growth. This was for the simple reason that the inflation rate has been rising consistently. Interest rates and credit are important constituents for industry. Corporate performance is to a great extent tied up with the availability of credit and the cost at which it is available. Inflation is a major concern.
So, the RBI had the tough task of balancing growth and liquidity. In the credit policy review it has left its short-term interest rates unchanged, but raised the cash reserve requirements of banks by a higher-than-expected 75 basis points, to be implemented in two phases. It also warned of rising inflation. The RBI has increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points as against market expectation of 50. It has clearly indicated its intention to control inflation.
The RBI said it will anchor inflation expectations and keep a vigil on the trends in inflation, and be prepared to respond swiftly and effectively through policy adjustments as warranted. Further, the RBI will actively manage liquidity to ensure that credit demands of productive sectors are adequately met. It will also maintain an interest rate environment consistent with price and financial stability, and in support of the growth process.
The RBI has also hiked its forecast for GDP growth in the current year to 7.5 percent, from an earlier target of six percent, and said the current rate of growth is likely to be sustained in the financial year that ends March 2011.
The RBI had earlier pegged the growth rate at six percent and inflation at 6.5 percent. Assuming a near-zero growth in agricultural production and continued recovery in industrial production and services sectors, the baseline projection for gross domestic product growth for 2009-10 is now raised to 7.5 percent. Keeping in view the global trend in commodity prices and the domestic demand-supply balance, the baseline projection for wholesale price inflation for end-March 2010 is now raised to 8.5 percent. On the assumption of normal monsoon and global oil prices remaining around the current level, it is expected inflation will moderate from July.
As an outcome, banks will start exercising a little more caution keeping in mind the fact that the RBI is so concerned about inflation. Banks are not expected to hike the rates immediately because there is excess liquidity in the system. The industry does not foresee interest rates going up in the near future because of the expected inflows and the liquidity condition at present.
The fact that interest rates have not been increased will continue to spur demand. There was a lot of anxiety on whether the government will pull back the various stimulus measures. The fact that interest rates have not been changed will now put the industry at ease.
The net impact on stock markets is expected to be neutral in the near term. With the raised GDP growth projections, the industry demand is expected to grow. Also, as the interest rates are expected to remain at their present levels in the near future, business plans of corporates will not be affected adversely.
All this may not impact the stock markets negatively. Especially so because the interest rate sensitive sectors may not be adversely impacted as the impact on interest rates would be just marginal, if any.
However, in case the inflation rate does not come under control, the RBI would have to step in with tougher measures.
Improved sales bookings aid Unitech profit in Q3
Improved sales bookings aid Unitech profit in Q3
The Hindu Business Line, January 31, 2010, Page 3
Our Bureau, New Delhi
The country's second largest real estate company Unitech Ltd on Saturday posted a strong 29.3 per cent rise in its consolidated net profit for third quarter of the current fiscal at Rs 176.01 crore compared with Rs 136 crore in the year-ago period. The growth came on the back of improved sales bookings, particularly in the affordable housing segment.
The total income in the just concluded quarter stood at Rs 788.32 crore, up 55.49 per cent over the same previous year, according to a company release.
“While the company continued to make good progress in terms of project launches and sales bookings, I am particularly gladdened by the progress in construction. During the nine months ended December 2009, the company has ramped up the construction activity at various project sites and it currently has over 60 projects under execution,” said Mr Sanjay Chandra, Managing Director, Unitech Ltd.
Workforce spruced up
Accordingly, the workforce employed at project sites have been spruced up significantly; it currently stands at nearly 20,000 workers. The company added almost 5,000 workers every quarter to expedite the completion of its projects, the statement said.
“Structural work is complete in over 80 per cent of the past projects and nearly half of these projects are in handover or finishing stages,” Mr Chandra added.
The company continued to reduce its debt during the quarter and net debt to equity as of December 2009 stood at 0.55. In the first nine months of the current fiscal, company reduced its debt by Rs 2,854 crore. Total loan outstanding as of December was Rs 6,201.70 crore. The company had Rs 611 crore in cash and bank balance on December end.
The Hindu Business Line, January 31, 2010, Page 3
Our Bureau, New Delhi
The country's second largest real estate company Unitech Ltd on Saturday posted a strong 29.3 per cent rise in its consolidated net profit for third quarter of the current fiscal at Rs 176.01 crore compared with Rs 136 crore in the year-ago period. The growth came on the back of improved sales bookings, particularly in the affordable housing segment.
The total income in the just concluded quarter stood at Rs 788.32 crore, up 55.49 per cent over the same previous year, according to a company release.
“While the company continued to make good progress in terms of project launches and sales bookings, I am particularly gladdened by the progress in construction. During the nine months ended December 2009, the company has ramped up the construction activity at various project sites and it currently has over 60 projects under execution,” said Mr Sanjay Chandra, Managing Director, Unitech Ltd.
Workforce spruced up
Accordingly, the workforce employed at project sites have been spruced up significantly; it currently stands at nearly 20,000 workers. The company added almost 5,000 workers every quarter to expedite the completion of its projects, the statement said.
“Structural work is complete in over 80 per cent of the past projects and nearly half of these projects are in handover or finishing stages,” Mr Chandra added.
The company continued to reduce its debt during the quarter and net debt to equity as of December 2009 stood at 0.55. In the first nine months of the current fiscal, company reduced its debt by Rs 2,854 crore. Total loan outstanding as of December was Rs 6,201.70 crore. The company had Rs 611 crore in cash and bank balance on December end.
RBI looks for a quick exit with 75-bps hike in CRR
RBI looks for a quick exit with 75-bps hike in CRR
Economic Times, January 30, 2010, Page 1
Urges Govt To Return To Fiscal Consolidation
Team ET MUMBAI
DUVVURI Subbarao on Friday sent out an unequivocal call for help to the government, likening his dilemma of exiting from an expansionary monetary policy to that of Pandava warrior Abhimanyu in the Mahabharata war.
In an uncharacteristically strong message, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor told the government that it should help prevent a monetary policy trap by returning to the path of fiscal consolidation as the central bank began to hasten its exit with a 75-basis-point increase in banks’ cash reserve ratio (CRR), or the portion of deposits they must keep with RBI.
He kept interest rates at record lows and raised the economic growth and inflation forecast for the current fiscal year as business sentiment improves, industrial recovery gains momentum and the services sector grows with improved financing and easing global markets. Economic expansion is inflating commodity and asset prices too.
Abhimanyu, the star-crossed son of Arjuna, penetrated the labyrinthine ‘Chakravyuh’ erected by the Kauravas, but lost his life not knowing how to get out. Arjuna, the only other warrior capable of breaching the formation as well as escaping from it, could not come to his son’s aid as he was distracted fighting another battle.
“This time around, the policy decision was much more complex and challenging than in the last one-and-a-half years. Getting out of an expansionary policy is much more difficult than getting into it. I was telling the banks this morning it is like a Chakravyuh in Mahabharata—you know how to get in but not many people know how to get out,” Mr Subbarao told reporters after the quarterly monetary policy review.
The RBI governor is attempting a deft exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy that he walked into to avoid a serious economic crisis after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. While the measures have mostly paid dividends, their sudden withdrawal could act as a drag on the improving growth rate, something which neither the political nor the business class wants to see.
As RBI attempts to contain inflation perceptions to pre-crisis levels of 4-4.5% and the medium-term objective of 3%, its objective could be frustrated by a large fiscal deficit, Mr Subbarao said in his policy statement.
“As the recovery gains momentum, it is important that there is co-ordination in the fiscal and monetary exits. The reversal of monetary accommodation cannot be effective unless there is also a rollback of government borrowing,” he observed.
SPRINGING A SURPRISE
What does the CRR hike mean?
While a 50-bps hike was factored in, RBI has surprised with a 75-bps hike. It appears to have gone in for the kill rather than take half measures.
Will the hike push up interest rates?
Unlikely in the short term, as banks are not finding enough takers for surplus funds. Home loan is the only segment showing decent growth, but competition may keep rates low. Govt borrowing targets in Budget will determine long-term rates.
What will this mean for banks?
Banks’ profits will come under pressure & their spreads will be narrowed by 7-10 bps. An increase in bond yields will also hit treasury profits.
Will inflation come down?
RBI expects prices to go up further before they start coming down in July. If the government does not overspend and there is a normal monsoon, prices are expected to fall in Q2 of FY11.
Rs76,974 cr Surplus liquidity since early Jan
Rs 36,000 cr
Liquidity to be sucked by CRR hike
Rs 2,21,369 cr Deposits banks need to raise in Q4’10 to meet 17% growth forecast
Rs 1,98,830 cr
Loans banks need to extend in Q4'10 to meet 16% growth forecast
Rs 7,000 cr Unfinished govt bond auction for the year
7.5%
Revised growth target for 2009-10
8.5% Revised inflation target for FY10
FDI & FII inflows to cross $50 b:Anand Sharma
FDI & FII inflows to cross $50 b:Anand Sharma
Economic Times, January 30, 2010, Page 4
Sudeshna Sen DAVOS
FDI into India is looking set to be more than $25 billion, and FII inbound flows should be more than $25 billion, estimates commerce minister Anand Sharma, though December formal figures aren’t out yet.
Mr Sharma, who had a private session with over 50 foreign CEOs, told ET that investor sentiment towards India was very positive in the series meetings he has had at Davos.
“The money is already coming in, and investor sentiment is very positive,” he told ET. Mr Sharma invited gathered CEOs to invest in R&D and innovation in geo-technology sector in India, at the same time pointing out that FDI flows work both ways, and Indian companies are now going outbound and investing in other economies and creating jobs globally.
He also defended India’s financial sector reform policies. “We leave the regulation of the financial sector to RBI, and the events of the past two years has shown the wisdom of this approach,” he said.
Selling the India story, Mr Sharma reiterated that the unified FDI policy, currently under discussion will subsume 177 Press Notes and be operational by March 31 to make things easier for foreign investors. In addition, he pointed to the government-industry initiative Invest India will help foreign companies in individual sectors.
Speaking to ET, Mr Sharma said that the biggest concern facing the world today is that the recovery, while it is happening, is very weak in developed markets. “It is universal, but not uniform,” he said. “The worry is that this may affect our trade flows, but confidence in India is very high,” he said. And it’s also why he advocates a cautious, deliberate, and perhaps sector by sector approach to withdrawing economic stimuli. “Not all sectors have recovered, and these sectors need time both globally and in India, we should look at a deliberate and cautious approach.” India, he adds, has already discussed its trade imbalance with China, and he has received assurance from the Chinese government that this will be tackled. While at Davos, Mr Sharma will meet up with 23 other ministers for a mini-ministerial on the Doha WTO round, what he calls an informal meeting to take stock. “We will see where the negotiators stand now, and discuss things at an informal level,” he said.
Economic Times, January 30, 2010, Page 4
Sudeshna Sen DAVOS
FDI into India is looking set to be more than $25 billion, and FII inbound flows should be more than $25 billion, estimates commerce minister Anand Sharma, though December formal figures aren’t out yet.
Mr Sharma, who had a private session with over 50 foreign CEOs, told ET that investor sentiment towards India was very positive in the series meetings he has had at Davos.
“The money is already coming in, and investor sentiment is very positive,” he told ET. Mr Sharma invited gathered CEOs to invest in R&D and innovation in geo-technology sector in India, at the same time pointing out that FDI flows work both ways, and Indian companies are now going outbound and investing in other economies and creating jobs globally.
He also defended India’s financial sector reform policies. “We leave the regulation of the financial sector to RBI, and the events of the past two years has shown the wisdom of this approach,” he said.
Selling the India story, Mr Sharma reiterated that the unified FDI policy, currently under discussion will subsume 177 Press Notes and be operational by March 31 to make things easier for foreign investors. In addition, he pointed to the government-industry initiative Invest India will help foreign companies in individual sectors.
Speaking to ET, Mr Sharma said that the biggest concern facing the world today is that the recovery, while it is happening, is very weak in developed markets. “It is universal, but not uniform,” he said. “The worry is that this may affect our trade flows, but confidence in India is very high,” he said. And it’s also why he advocates a cautious, deliberate, and perhaps sector by sector approach to withdrawing economic stimuli. “Not all sectors have recovered, and these sectors need time both globally and in India, we should look at a deliberate and cautious approach.” India, he adds, has already discussed its trade imbalance with China, and he has received assurance from the Chinese government that this will be tackled. While at Davos, Mr Sharma will meet up with 23 other ministers for a mini-ministerial on the Doha WTO round, what he calls an informal meeting to take stock. “We will see where the negotiators stand now, and discuss things at an informal level,” he said.
GMR Infra Q3 net profit plunges 85%
GMR Infra Q3 net profit plunges 85%
Economic Times, January 30, 2010, Page 13
PTI MUMBAI
GMR Infrastructure on Friday posted nearly 85% decline in consolidated net profit at Rs 9.2 crore for the third quarter ended December 2009.
The company had a consolidated net profit (after tax and minority interest & share of profit) of Rs 61.29 crore in the October-December quarter last financial year, GMR Infra said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
However, the company’s consolidated net sales rose to Rs 1,066.72 crore during the third quarter of current fiscal from Rs 958.90 crore of the corresponding period a year earlier.
“In this quarter we have put in place catalysts that drives across sectors in time to come,” GMR Infrastructure Group chairman GM Rao said. GMR Infra is a Bangalore-based infrastructure major with interests in airports, energy and highways.
Economic Times, January 30, 2010, Page 13
PTI MUMBAI
GMR Infrastructure on Friday posted nearly 85% decline in consolidated net profit at Rs 9.2 crore for the third quarter ended December 2009.
The company had a consolidated net profit (after tax and minority interest & share of profit) of Rs 61.29 crore in the October-December quarter last financial year, GMR Infra said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
However, the company’s consolidated net sales rose to Rs 1,066.72 crore during the third quarter of current fiscal from Rs 958.90 crore of the corresponding period a year earlier.
“In this quarter we have put in place catalysts that drives across sectors in time to come,” GMR Infrastructure Group chairman GM Rao said. GMR Infra is a Bangalore-based infrastructure major with interests in airports, energy and highways.
Your home, car loan rates won’t rise till Mar
Your home, car loan rates won’t rise till Mar
Economic Times, January 30, 2010, Page 14
But Corporates Who Borrow Short-Term Money At Sub-PLR Rates May Have To Cough Up More, Feel Top Bankers
Our Bureau MUMBAI
COMMERCIAL banks are unlikely to raise their prime lending rates — offered to the best customers — or deposits rates at least till the end of March. However, large corporates borrowing short-term money at sub-PLR rates may have to cough up more. This was indicated by CEOs of several commercial banks soon after RBI announced a 75-basis point (bp) hike in the cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits that banks have to park with RBI. However, car loan rates are unlikely to rise due to increased competition among banks in this segment.
The hike in CRR to 5.75% from 5% in two stages will suck out Rs 36,000 crore from the banking system.
“Despite the CRR hike, there is ample liquidity and thus in the near term rates will not rise,” said AC Mahajan, CMD of Canara Bank. “However,” said DL Rawal, CMD of Dena Bank, “rates will firm up only after March if credit shows signs of revival.” Banks have been parking Rs 75,000-85,000 crore with RBI at 3.5% under the reverse-repo window.
In the light of the CRR hike, CEOs feel that their net interest margins — the spreads between cost of liabilities and yield on advances — could shrink between 7 and 10 bps (a bp is .01%). That is because the cash parked by banks with RBI will not earn any interest, which, in turn, impacts NIMs. A senior SBI official told ET that a CRR hike will translate into an additional outgo of Rs 6,000 crore for the bank, but will have a marginal impact on its NIM. In the December quarter, SBI had surplus liquidity of Rs 75,000 crore.
For Punjab National Bank, the CRR hike will absorb around Rs 1,800 crore and shrink its NIM by 10 bps while for HDFC Bank Rs 1,500 crore will be impounded and NIM will narrow by 7-8 bps. Similarly, the respective figures for Union Bank of India are Rs 1,200 crore and 7-8 bps and for Canara Bank, Rs 1,600 crore and 7-8 bps.
Meanwhile, car loan customers are unlikely to be impacted by the CRR hike due to increased competition in the market. ICICI Bank had brought down its interest rates on car loans early this month. Responding to this, larger players in the car loan market such as HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra also bought down car loan rates.
“The hike in CRR has to be adjusted and the impact will have to be passed on to customers. Hence, the sub-PLR advances would be impacted and reduce over a period of time,” said MV Nair, CMD of Union Bank of India and chairman of Indian Banks Association.
According to TY Prabhu, CMD of Oriental Bank of Commerce, short-term rates for corporates may go up but again this will depend on the surplus liquidity that each bank has with them. Large banks have surplus liquidity in the region of Rs 8,000 crore to Rs 10,000 crore.
“With the hike in CRR, banks will lend more to corporates instead of parking funds with mutual funds. The CRR hike will have little impact on margins but then loan growth will make up for it,” said Romesh Sobti, MD & CEO of IndusInd Bank. Meanwhile, Dhanlaxmi Bank MD & CEO Amitabh Chaturvedi said: “There is unlikely to be any immediate impact. There may not be an increase in both loans and deposit rates. Margins are unlikely to be impacted as there is enough money in the system.”
Economic Times, January 30, 2010, Page 14
But Corporates Who Borrow Short-Term Money At Sub-PLR Rates May Have To Cough Up More, Feel Top Bankers
Our Bureau MUMBAI
COMMERCIAL banks are unlikely to raise their prime lending rates — offered to the best customers — or deposits rates at least till the end of March. However, large corporates borrowing short-term money at sub-PLR rates may have to cough up more. This was indicated by CEOs of several commercial banks soon after RBI announced a 75-basis point (bp) hike in the cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits that banks have to park with RBI. However, car loan rates are unlikely to rise due to increased competition among banks in this segment.
The hike in CRR to 5.75% from 5% in two stages will suck out Rs 36,000 crore from the banking system.
“Despite the CRR hike, there is ample liquidity and thus in the near term rates will not rise,” said AC Mahajan, CMD of Canara Bank. “However,” said DL Rawal, CMD of Dena Bank, “rates will firm up only after March if credit shows signs of revival.” Banks have been parking Rs 75,000-85,000 crore with RBI at 3.5% under the reverse-repo window.
In the light of the CRR hike, CEOs feel that their net interest margins — the spreads between cost of liabilities and yield on advances — could shrink between 7 and 10 bps (a bp is .01%). That is because the cash parked by banks with RBI will not earn any interest, which, in turn, impacts NIMs. A senior SBI official told ET that a CRR hike will translate into an additional outgo of Rs 6,000 crore for the bank, but will have a marginal impact on its NIM. In the December quarter, SBI had surplus liquidity of Rs 75,000 crore.
For Punjab National Bank, the CRR hike will absorb around Rs 1,800 crore and shrink its NIM by 10 bps while for HDFC Bank Rs 1,500 crore will be impounded and NIM will narrow by 7-8 bps. Similarly, the respective figures for Union Bank of India are Rs 1,200 crore and 7-8 bps and for Canara Bank, Rs 1,600 crore and 7-8 bps.
Meanwhile, car loan customers are unlikely to be impacted by the CRR hike due to increased competition in the market. ICICI Bank had brought down its interest rates on car loans early this month. Responding to this, larger players in the car loan market such as HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra also bought down car loan rates.
“The hike in CRR has to be adjusted and the impact will have to be passed on to customers. Hence, the sub-PLR advances would be impacted and reduce over a period of time,” said MV Nair, CMD of Union Bank of India and chairman of Indian Banks Association.
According to TY Prabhu, CMD of Oriental Bank of Commerce, short-term rates for corporates may go up but again this will depend on the surplus liquidity that each bank has with them. Large banks have surplus liquidity in the region of Rs 8,000 crore to Rs 10,000 crore.
“With the hike in CRR, banks will lend more to corporates instead of parking funds with mutual funds. The CRR hike will have little impact on margins but then loan growth will make up for it,” said Romesh Sobti, MD & CEO of IndusInd Bank. Meanwhile, Dhanlaxmi Bank MD & CEO Amitabh Chaturvedi said: “There is unlikely to be any immediate impact. There may not be an increase in both loans and deposit rates. Margins are unlikely to be impacted as there is enough money in the system.”
Telenor deal, affordable housing fuel Unitech net
Telenor deal, affordable housing fuel Unitech net
Financial Express, January 31, 2010, Page 1
fe Bureau, New Delhi
Debt restructuring, sell-off of the telecom business to Norway’s Telenor, and focus on affordable housing saw the country’s second largest real estate firm, Unitech Ltd post a jump of 29.37% in its net profit at Rs 176.01 crore during the October-December quarter. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 136.05 crore during the same period of the previous fiscal.
The period saw Unitech’s total income increasing 57.65% at Rs 774.46 crore, against Rs 491.24 crore during the same period of the last financial year.
Earlier in the week, the country’s largest real estate firm DLF Ltd posted a 30% decline in its net profit. Unitech was the most adversely affected real estate firm in the country last year after the global financial meltdown, with its share price crashing to around Rs 20. A company statement said the firm continued to reduce its debt during the quarter and net debt to equity as of December 31, 2009, stood at a healthy level of 0.55. During the first nine months of the current fiscal, the company reduced its debt by Rs 2,854 crore. The total loan outstanding as of December 31, 2009, was Rs 6,201.70 crore. The company had Rs 611 crore in cash and bank balance as on December 31, 2009.
Unitech said it launched over 30 new projects comprising an area of 24.42 million sqft in the first nine months, of which it has already received bookings for over 13.14 million sqft across Gurgaon, Noida, Greater Noida, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, Bhopal, Lucknow and Mohali. The total value of sales bookings till December 2009 was approximately Rs 5,500 crore.
The quarter also saw Unitech emerging a key player in markets like Mumbai and Chennai.
The company received bookings for approximately 1.6 million sq ft in Mumbai and 1.75 million sq ft in Chennai during the first nine months of the current financial year.
Announcing the results, Sanjay Chandra, managing director, Unitech Ltd. said, “While the company continued to make good progress in terms of project launches and sales bookings, I am particularly gladdened by the progress in construction. During the nine months ended December 31, 2009, the company has ramped up the construction activity at various project sites and it currently has over 60 projects under execution.”
Financial Express, January 31, 2010, Page 1
fe Bureau, New Delhi
Debt restructuring, sell-off of the telecom business to Norway’s Telenor, and focus on affordable housing saw the country’s second largest real estate firm, Unitech Ltd post a jump of 29.37% in its net profit at Rs 176.01 crore during the October-December quarter. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 136.05 crore during the same period of the previous fiscal.
The period saw Unitech’s total income increasing 57.65% at Rs 774.46 crore, against Rs 491.24 crore during the same period of the last financial year.
Earlier in the week, the country’s largest real estate firm DLF Ltd posted a 30% decline in its net profit. Unitech was the most adversely affected real estate firm in the country last year after the global financial meltdown, with its share price crashing to around Rs 20. A company statement said the firm continued to reduce its debt during the quarter and net debt to equity as of December 31, 2009, stood at a healthy level of 0.55. During the first nine months of the current fiscal, the company reduced its debt by Rs 2,854 crore. The total loan outstanding as of December 31, 2009, was Rs 6,201.70 crore. The company had Rs 611 crore in cash and bank balance as on December 31, 2009.
Unitech said it launched over 30 new projects comprising an area of 24.42 million sqft in the first nine months, of which it has already received bookings for over 13.14 million sqft across Gurgaon, Noida, Greater Noida, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, Bhopal, Lucknow and Mohali. The total value of sales bookings till December 2009 was approximately Rs 5,500 crore.
The quarter also saw Unitech emerging a key player in markets like Mumbai and Chennai.
The company received bookings for approximately 1.6 million sq ft in Mumbai and 1.75 million sq ft in Chennai during the first nine months of the current financial year.
Announcing the results, Sanjay Chandra, managing director, Unitech Ltd. said, “While the company continued to make good progress in terms of project launches and sales bookings, I am particularly gladdened by the progress in construction. During the nine months ended December 31, 2009, the company has ramped up the construction activity at various project sites and it currently has over 60 projects under execution.”
Panel recommends total review of SEZ Act
Panel recommends total review of SEZ Act
Economic Times, February 1, 2010, Page 11
NEW DELHI: The government should ’revisit’ its Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Act ’comprehensively’ and put a ban on transfer of common property and agricultural land for its implementation, a panel has recommended in its report. The Committee on State Agrarian Relations and the Unfinished Task in Land Reforms has noted that concerns of tribals and farmers remained ’totally unattended’ under the Act as there was no cost-benefit analysis for such projects and also due to the absence of an upper limit fixed for land acquisition. The report of the committee, which was set up by the Rural Development Ministry in 2007, was submitted through the ministry to the National Land Reforms Council, headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, sources in the ministry said. The committee noted that the status of ’deemed foreign territory’ to SEZs stands to undermine the institutions set up under (Panchayats (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, 1996) as also the rights of the individual citizens.
Economic Times, February 1, 2010, Page 11
NEW DELHI: The government should ’revisit’ its Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Act ’comprehensively’ and put a ban on transfer of common property and agricultural land for its implementation, a panel has recommended in its report. The Committee on State Agrarian Relations and the Unfinished Task in Land Reforms has noted that concerns of tribals and farmers remained ’totally unattended’ under the Act as there was no cost-benefit analysis for such projects and also due to the absence of an upper limit fixed for land acquisition. The report of the committee, which was set up by the Rural Development Ministry in 2007, was submitted through the ministry to the National Land Reforms Council, headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, sources in the ministry said. The committee noted that the status of ’deemed foreign territory’ to SEZs stands to undermine the institutions set up under (Panchayats (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, 1996) as also the rights of the individual citizens.
Parsvnath net jumps four fold
Parsvnath net jumps four fold
Business Standard, February 1, 2010, Page 3
Business Standard, February 1, 2010, Page 3
Stimulus withdrawal to hit growth
Stimulus withdrawal to hit growth
Financial Express, February 1, 2010, Page 3
Press Trust of India, New Delhi
In the backdrop of RBI’s advice to the government to withdraw some of the stimulus measures, industry chamber Ficci on Sunday cautioned it will be “dangerous” for economic growth and employment if fiscal incentives given to spur economy were rolled back.
Ficci’s comments come at a time when everyone is counting days for the big day of Budget,likely on February 25.
Ficci secretary-general Amit Mitra said it is a difficult choice between promoting growth and containing fiscal deficit, which is pegged at over 6% for the current fiscal due to duty cuts and increased public expenditure.
Financial Express, February 1, 2010, Page 3
Press Trust of India, New Delhi
In the backdrop of RBI’s advice to the government to withdraw some of the stimulus measures, industry chamber Ficci on Sunday cautioned it will be “dangerous” for economic growth and employment if fiscal incentives given to spur economy were rolled back.
Ficci’s comments come at a time when everyone is counting days for the big day of Budget,likely on February 25.
Ficci secretary-general Amit Mitra said it is a difficult choice between promoting growth and containing fiscal deficit, which is pegged at over 6% for the current fiscal due to duty cuts and increased public expenditure.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Sensex tanks 423 on FII selling
Sensex tanks 423 on FII selling
Times of India, January 21, 2010, Page 25
Chinese jitters, MUMBAI
Chinese jitters, fresh weakness in markets around the globe and investors’ disappointment with government's divestment plan pulled the sensex down to its lowest close in over a month.
After opening flat, the index slid through the day and ended at 17,051, down 423 points. It was the biggest single-session loss for the sensex this year and third-biggest in the last six months as foreign funds continued selling.
Going forward, market players expect foreign cues and results from domestic heavyweights like RIL and SBI to dictate market's direction. On Thursday, following the 122-point loss in Dow Jones in US the previous night, the sensex opened flat and as selling picked up through the session, touched an intra-day low at 17,025 and closed just a tad higher.
‘‘Markets were looking weak and were vulnerable for the last few sessions. Today when the market broke the key technical support level at about 5,190 on the Nifty (the index closed at 5,094), it appeared as if there was no tomorrow,'' said Arun Kejriwal, director, KRIS, an investment advisory firm.
Selling was across-the-board with all the 30 sensex stocks closing in the red. On the sectoral front, capital goods, power and realty stocks led the slide and all the BSE sectoral indices ended in the red. Among the sensex stocks, L&T was the top loser. L&T results, which were in line with expectation, with top line lower but margins higher, was not liked by the markets, and hence the selling, which led to a 6.9% loss in the stock to Rs 1,524.
The Chinese government's decision on Wednesday to curb lending to cool down a overheated economy also affected market sentiments, especially among the foreign funds. BSE data showed that FIIs have been net sellers during the last few days and on Thursday they had a net selling figure of Rs 854 crore. The day's losses also made investors poorer by Rs 1.6 lakh crore with BSE's market capitalisation now at Rs 61.8 lakh crore.
With a key technical support level broken, the market could slide further, chartists said. “Going forward, markets will look to foreign markets and results from heavyweight companies for further cues,'' said Kejriwal. Fund managers feel there could be some more slide and most are disappointed with the way government is going ahead with divestment. A fall-out of Thursday's slide was that some of the QIPs which have been lined up, did not generate expected response, giving merchant bankers some tough time.
Times of India, January 21, 2010, Page 25
Chinese jitters, MUMBAI
Chinese jitters, fresh weakness in markets around the globe and investors’ disappointment with government's divestment plan pulled the sensex down to its lowest close in over a month.
After opening flat, the index slid through the day and ended at 17,051, down 423 points. It was the biggest single-session loss for the sensex this year and third-biggest in the last six months as foreign funds continued selling.
Going forward, market players expect foreign cues and results from domestic heavyweights like RIL and SBI to dictate market's direction. On Thursday, following the 122-point loss in Dow Jones in US the previous night, the sensex opened flat and as selling picked up through the session, touched an intra-day low at 17,025 and closed just a tad higher.
‘‘Markets were looking weak and were vulnerable for the last few sessions. Today when the market broke the key technical support level at about 5,190 on the Nifty (the index closed at 5,094), it appeared as if there was no tomorrow,'' said Arun Kejriwal, director, KRIS, an investment advisory firm.
Selling was across-the-board with all the 30 sensex stocks closing in the red. On the sectoral front, capital goods, power and realty stocks led the slide and all the BSE sectoral indices ended in the red. Among the sensex stocks, L&T was the top loser. L&T results, which were in line with expectation, with top line lower but margins higher, was not liked by the markets, and hence the selling, which led to a 6.9% loss in the stock to Rs 1,524.
The Chinese government's decision on Wednesday to curb lending to cool down a overheated economy also affected market sentiments, especially among the foreign funds. BSE data showed that FIIs have been net sellers during the last few days and on Thursday they had a net selling figure of Rs 854 crore. The day's losses also made investors poorer by Rs 1.6 lakh crore with BSE's market capitalisation now at Rs 61.8 lakh crore.
With a key technical support level broken, the market could slide further, chartists said. “Going forward, markets will look to foreign markets and results from heavyweight companies for further cues,'' said Kejriwal. Fund managers feel there could be some more slide and most are disappointed with the way government is going ahead with divestment. A fall-out of Thursday's slide was that some of the QIPs which have been lined up, did not generate expected response, giving merchant bankers some tough time.
ICICI Q3 net profit dips 13% to Rs 1101cr
ICICI Q3 net profit dips 13% to Rs 1101cr
Times of India, January 21, 2010, Page 25
MUMBAI: ICICI Bank, the country's largest private sector bank, reported a 13.4% drop in net profit for the quarter ended December 2009 to Rs 1,101 crore from Rs 1,272 crore it earned during the corresponding quarter in the previous year. The bank's total income too dropped about 25% to Rs 7,762 crore during Q3FY10 from Rs 10,350 crore a year earlier.
The drop in net profit as well as in total income were largely attributed to fall in treasury income for the bank as yields in the debt market rose. For most companies in the financial services business, the lower rate of interest in the economy led to lower interest income.
ICICI Bank's loan and deposit books contracted during 2009 but top officials said credit demand was expected to pick up as the economy revives. It also said quality of its loans were improving because of conservative lending policies and revival in economic activities had slowed the rise in loan defaults.
‘‘The home loan registrations are going up month-on-month and car sales are going up month-on-month,'' Chanda Kochhar, CEO & MD, ICICI Bank, said during a conference call on Thursday. ‘‘Both these activities are seeing huge increase. So obviously, even the loans against homes or cars will see a good increase,'' Kochhar said.
In Thursday's weak market, ICICI Bank shares on the Bombay Stock Exchange ended 2.7% lower at Rs 853.
Times of India, January 21, 2010, Page 25
MUMBAI: ICICI Bank, the country's largest private sector bank, reported a 13.4% drop in net profit for the quarter ended December 2009 to Rs 1,101 crore from Rs 1,272 crore it earned during the corresponding quarter in the previous year. The bank's total income too dropped about 25% to Rs 7,762 crore during Q3FY10 from Rs 10,350 crore a year earlier.
The drop in net profit as well as in total income were largely attributed to fall in treasury income for the bank as yields in the debt market rose. For most companies in the financial services business, the lower rate of interest in the economy led to lower interest income.
ICICI Bank's loan and deposit books contracted during 2009 but top officials said credit demand was expected to pick up as the economy revives. It also said quality of its loans were improving because of conservative lending policies and revival in economic activities had slowed the rise in loan defaults.
‘‘The home loan registrations are going up month-on-month and car sales are going up month-on-month,'' Chanda Kochhar, CEO & MD, ICICI Bank, said during a conference call on Thursday. ‘‘Both these activities are seeing huge increase. So obviously, even the loans against homes or cars will see a good increase,'' Kochhar said.
In Thursday's weak market, ICICI Bank shares on the Bombay Stock Exchange ended 2.7% lower at Rs 853.
Food inflation softens marginally to 16.81%
Food inflation softens marginally to 16.81%
Financial Express, January 21, 2010, Page 2
fe Bureau
New DelhiOn a day when the government announced measures to shield poor families from the rise in food prices, the country’s food inflation marginally fell to 16.81% during the week ended January 9.
Food inflation stood at 17.28% a week ago. Despite the decline in food inflation, the rate is still higher, compared with last year’s level of 11.59% during the same period.
Cereal prices rose 14.18%, with wheat rising 15% and rice 12.64%. As reported by FE earlier, although potato prices have softened during the last few weeks, current prices rose by close to 50% y-o-y, while pulses turned dearer by 47.90% owing to higher imports cost. Milk prices rose by 13.95% over last year and are expected to surge further on lower availability, indicated by agriculture minister Sharad Pawar on Wednesday.
Pawar’s comment that states need to take a decision on the demand for hiking milk prices triggered a sharp reaction from political parties protesting against the rising prices of food products. The Cabinet Committee on Prices also announced that an ‘ad-hoc’ allocation of 10 kg per family, per month, over and above the existing allocation of foodgrain, mainly wheat and rice, would be made during January-February, 2010 and is slated to cover all poor families.
According to official data, the rise in fruit prices was moderate at 3.73%. Onion prices rose by over 15%, while vegetable prices were up 7.95%. This is mainly because of drought-like conditions prevailing in most of the onion and vegetable-growing regions of the country. Meanwhile, Sharad Pawar has said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s meeting with various state chief ministers on price rise, scheduled for January 27, has now been postponed and is likely to be slated for February 6.
The meeting is intended to devise a combined strategy to deal with rising food prices. Economists have said rising food prices will force RBI to tighten money supply, but will not lead to a rise in lending rates, owing to excess liquidity in the system.
Financial Express, January 21, 2010, Page 2
fe Bureau
New DelhiOn a day when the government announced measures to shield poor families from the rise in food prices, the country’s food inflation marginally fell to 16.81% during the week ended January 9.
Food inflation stood at 17.28% a week ago. Despite the decline in food inflation, the rate is still higher, compared with last year’s level of 11.59% during the same period.
Cereal prices rose 14.18%, with wheat rising 15% and rice 12.64%. As reported by FE earlier, although potato prices have softened during the last few weeks, current prices rose by close to 50% y-o-y, while pulses turned dearer by 47.90% owing to higher imports cost. Milk prices rose by 13.95% over last year and are expected to surge further on lower availability, indicated by agriculture minister Sharad Pawar on Wednesday.
Pawar’s comment that states need to take a decision on the demand for hiking milk prices triggered a sharp reaction from political parties protesting against the rising prices of food products. The Cabinet Committee on Prices also announced that an ‘ad-hoc’ allocation of 10 kg per family, per month, over and above the existing allocation of foodgrain, mainly wheat and rice, would be made during January-February, 2010 and is slated to cover all poor families.
According to official data, the rise in fruit prices was moderate at 3.73%. Onion prices rose by over 15%, while vegetable prices were up 7.95%. This is mainly because of drought-like conditions prevailing in most of the onion and vegetable-growing regions of the country. Meanwhile, Sharad Pawar has said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s meeting with various state chief ministers on price rise, scheduled for January 27, has now been postponed and is likely to be slated for February 6.
The meeting is intended to devise a combined strategy to deal with rising food prices. Economists have said rising food prices will force RBI to tighten money supply, but will not lead to a rise in lending rates, owing to excess liquidity in the system.
Food inflation eases marginally to 16.81%
Food inflation eases marginally to 16.81%
Business Standard, January 21, 2010, Page 1
BS Reporter / Mumbai
Food inflation softened to 16.81 per cent for the week ended January 9, led by lower fruit and vegetable prices, although pulses and potatoes continued to cost dearer.
For the week ending January 2, food inflation (prices of non-processed food articles) stood at 17.28 per cent.
According to the government data, on year-over-year basis prices of vegetables rose by 7.95 per cent and that of fruits by only 3.73 per cent.
While milk prices soared by 13.95 per cent over last year and is expected to surge further on lower availability.
"We are facing insufficient availability of milk, specially in northern India. In October, we had taken a decision to raise the price. Today, there is a demand that we should hike the price," Agricultural Minister Sharad Pawar had said yesterday.
Potato remained expensive during the period rising as much as 49.31 per cent from last year, followed by prices of pulses which jumped by 47.90 per cent.
The inflation for primary articles, which include food and non-food items, stood at 13.93 per cent in the reporting week over the previous year.
On weekly basis, the price index for food articles fell marginally by 0.1 per cent on account of decline in prices of vegetables (2.6 per cent) and other food articles (2 per cent).
Business Standard, January 21, 2010, Page 1
BS Reporter / Mumbai
Food inflation softened to 16.81 per cent for the week ended January 9, led by lower fruit and vegetable prices, although pulses and potatoes continued to cost dearer.
For the week ending January 2, food inflation (prices of non-processed food articles) stood at 17.28 per cent.
According to the government data, on year-over-year basis prices of vegetables rose by 7.95 per cent and that of fruits by only 3.73 per cent.
While milk prices soared by 13.95 per cent over last year and is expected to surge further on lower availability.
"We are facing insufficient availability of milk, specially in northern India. In October, we had taken a decision to raise the price. Today, there is a demand that we should hike the price," Agricultural Minister Sharad Pawar had said yesterday.
Potato remained expensive during the period rising as much as 49.31 per cent from last year, followed by prices of pulses which jumped by 47.90 per cent.
The inflation for primary articles, which include food and non-food items, stood at 13.93 per cent in the reporting week over the previous year.
On weekly basis, the price index for food articles fell marginally by 0.1 per cent on account of decline in prices of vegetables (2.6 per cent) and other food articles (2 per cent).
Inflation to exceed 9% by March: Pronab Sen
Inflation to exceed 9% by March: Pronab Sen
Financial Express, January 21, 2010, Page 2
Press Trust of India, New Delhi
The government on Thursday said inflation could exceed 9% by March end with the impact of crop failure becoming visible by the close of the fiscal.
“Unless something dramatic happens on agri prices, it (inflation) would probably be over 9%,” said Pronab Sen, chief Statistician of India and secretary, ministry of statistics and programme Implementation. Wholesale price-based inflation, which dipped to sub-zero levels following the impact of the global crisis, has started firming up and rose to 7.3%in December, 2009.
When asked whether easy money policy was also fueling inflation, Sen said, “I don’t think that is really the case. There is large undisbursed balance with the banks. However, it could become a problem going forward.”
On the steps that RBI could take in its forthcoming monetary policy review on January 29 to tame inflation, Sen said, the central bank has to take many other factors while changing the key policy rates and ratios.
Overheating China melts Indian market
Overheating China melts Indian market
Business Standard, January 22, 2010, Page 1
BS Reporter / Mumbai
Domestic 3rd quarter news weigh on sentiment.
Indian stock market indices fell to their lowest close in a month over concerns that China will take more measures to temper growth after reporting its fastest quarterly growth in two years.
Subdued world equities weighed on the sentiment as all Asian markets other than Japan closed in the red. The lowering of revenue forecast by Larsen & Toubro (L&T) pushed equities down further, with the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index falling for the third straight session by 2.4 per cent on Thursday.
Analysts, however, saw some silver lining with European markets trading higher.
China’s economy expanded 10.7 per cent in 2009, exceeding even the government’s own initial expectations. Consumer inflation rose to 1.9 per cent in December from 0.6 per cent in the previous month.
“There is a concern of overheating China,” said Vikram Kotak, chief investment officer at Birla Sunlife Insurance. He said the fall in the regional markets also pulled down the broader market.
The BSE 30-share index Sensex was down 423 points to 17,051.14 and the S&P CNX Nifty on NSE declined 127.55 points (2.44 per cent) to 5,094.15.
“Tightening of the monetary policy in China is a matter of time and there is also concern of higher inflation,” said V K Sharma, head of private broking and wealth management at HDFC Securities.
THE BLOW
# China’s GDP surges 10.7% between Oct & Dec, compared with a year earlier
# Consumer inflation rises to 1.9% in Dec from 0.6% previous month
IMPLICATION
# Beijing expected to lift interest rates in next few months
RIPPLE EFFECTS
# Dollar rises to its highest in 4 months
# Asian markets other than Japan close in the red
# Sensex down 423 points to 17,051.14
Analysts said the country’s largest engineering and construction conglomerate, L&T, which lowered its full-year revenue guidance citing project delays, affected the market sentiments badly. L&T said its revenue would grow 10 per cent for the year to March, slower than 15 per cent projected earlier, but maintained its order growth target at 30 per cent.
“L&T was a big dampener on the index,” said a dealer with a domestic brokerage who declined to be named. L&T share fell almost 7 per cent to Rs 1,524.35. ICICI Bank, whose net profit fell by 13.4 per cent was the other dampener.
Traders said absence of the biggest domestic institutional investor Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) from the market also had its impact. They said, had LIC been there in the market, such fall would not have happened. Due to the local strike at its corporate office, trading activities were minimal.
Bharat Heavy Electricals declined 4.1 per cent to Rs 2,297 on broad market declines, even as it reported a 5.4 per cent rise in its December quarter net profit, in line with street view. Oil & Natural Gas Corporation fell for the fifth straight session and closed nearly 2 per cent lower at Rs 1,140, ahead of its quarterly earnings release. ONGC reported a 23 per cent rise in third quarter net profit, its second straight quarterly rise, helped by firmer oil prices, but lagged market estimates. Reliance Industries, which has the highest weight on the Sensex, dropped 2.2 per cent to Rs 1,053.80, ahead of its quarterly results tomorrow.
In the broader market, four shares declined for every one share that advanced in a volume of 510 million shares, lower than last week’s daily average of 651 million shares.
Business Standard, January 22, 2010, Page 1
BS Reporter / Mumbai
Domestic 3rd quarter news weigh on sentiment.
Indian stock market indices fell to their lowest close in a month over concerns that China will take more measures to temper growth after reporting its fastest quarterly growth in two years.
Subdued world equities weighed on the sentiment as all Asian markets other than Japan closed in the red. The lowering of revenue forecast by Larsen & Toubro (L&T) pushed equities down further, with the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index falling for the third straight session by 2.4 per cent on Thursday.
Analysts, however, saw some silver lining with European markets trading higher.
China’s economy expanded 10.7 per cent in 2009, exceeding even the government’s own initial expectations. Consumer inflation rose to 1.9 per cent in December from 0.6 per cent in the previous month.
“There is a concern of overheating China,” said Vikram Kotak, chief investment officer at Birla Sunlife Insurance. He said the fall in the regional markets also pulled down the broader market.
The BSE 30-share index Sensex was down 423 points to 17,051.14 and the S&P CNX Nifty on NSE declined 127.55 points (2.44 per cent) to 5,094.15.
“Tightening of the monetary policy in China is a matter of time and there is also concern of higher inflation,” said V K Sharma, head of private broking and wealth management at HDFC Securities.
THE BLOW
# China’s GDP surges 10.7% between Oct & Dec, compared with a year earlier
# Consumer inflation rises to 1.9% in Dec from 0.6% previous month
IMPLICATION
# Beijing expected to lift interest rates in next few months
RIPPLE EFFECTS
# Dollar rises to its highest in 4 months
# Asian markets other than Japan close in the red
# Sensex down 423 points to 17,051.14
Analysts said the country’s largest engineering and construction conglomerate, L&T, which lowered its full-year revenue guidance citing project delays, affected the market sentiments badly. L&T said its revenue would grow 10 per cent for the year to March, slower than 15 per cent projected earlier, but maintained its order growth target at 30 per cent.
“L&T was a big dampener on the index,” said a dealer with a domestic brokerage who declined to be named. L&T share fell almost 7 per cent to Rs 1,524.35. ICICI Bank, whose net profit fell by 13.4 per cent was the other dampener.
Traders said absence of the biggest domestic institutional investor Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) from the market also had its impact. They said, had LIC been there in the market, such fall would not have happened. Due to the local strike at its corporate office, trading activities were minimal.
Bharat Heavy Electricals declined 4.1 per cent to Rs 2,297 on broad market declines, even as it reported a 5.4 per cent rise in its December quarter net profit, in line with street view. Oil & Natural Gas Corporation fell for the fifth straight session and closed nearly 2 per cent lower at Rs 1,140, ahead of its quarterly earnings release. ONGC reported a 23 per cent rise in third quarter net profit, its second straight quarterly rise, helped by firmer oil prices, but lagged market estimates. Reliance Industries, which has the highest weight on the Sensex, dropped 2.2 per cent to Rs 1,053.80, ahead of its quarterly results tomorrow.
In the broader market, four shares declined for every one share that advanced in a volume of 510 million shares, lower than last week’s daily average of 651 million shares.
Home prices almost back to 2007-08 levels
Home prices almost back to 2007-08 levels
Business Standard, January 22, 2010, Page 2
Raghavendra Kamath / Mumbai
Developers say the rise reflects a rebound in demand and isn’t irrational
Apartment prices at Planet Godrej, a premium residential property developed by Godrej Properties in the tony Mahalaxmi area of Mumbai, had come down to as low as Rs 17,000 to Rs 18,000 a sq ft in the property market slowdown last year.
The flats now sell at Rs 27,000 to Rs 30,000 a sq ft — just short of the peak rate of Rs 32,000 a sq ft in 2007-08.
It’s not the commercial capital alone that has seen real estate prices on fire. Last week, the Jaypee group sold 600 plots on the Greater Noida Expressway, near Delhi, within three days at Rs 36,000 a sq yd (one sq yd equals nine sq ft). Brokers say the plots are now available for only Rs 39,000 a sq yard and will touch Rs 42,000 a sq yard within a few days.
On Pune’s posh Bhandarkar Road, apartment prices have risen 80 per cent in just five months. For example, flats at local developer Avaneesh Construction’s housing project are now available at Rs 9,000 a sq ft, compared to Rs 5,000 in August.
Welcome back to the era of crazy rises in home prices. After a year of sanity, when property developers were reducing rates even in premium areas, it’s a rewind to 2007-08, when prices had more than doubled in as many years on the back of strong buyer and investor demand, as the stock markets boomed.
Then, apartment prices had gone down by 30 per cent from their peak, as home sales had almost come to a standstill in the last few quarters of 2008-09, reflecting a worldwide economic slowing.
Pranay Vakil, chairman of Knight Frank India, a leading property consultant, says: “We have seen an up to 30 per cent rise in home prices in the last six months. A lot of pent-up demand came into the market around Diwali. That, coupled with strong NRI (non-resident Indian) interest, has led to the rebound in prices. Most NRIs have invested in Mumbai property this time, instead of Dubai.''
The NRIs were absent from the property market in 2008-09. Vakil says prices have mostly risen in prime areas, where new projects are being sold out within days and where supply is limited.
For instance, in the Prabhadevi area of Mumbai, if the delivery is three years away, prices have gone up to Rs 21,000 a sq ft. If the project completion is two-three months away, prices are Rs 25,000-Rs 27,000 a sq ft. But, if a house is ready to be moved into, it could go for Rs 30,000 a sq ft, Vakil adds.
The Maharashtra government has been quick to cash in on the rise in property prices and has increased stamp duty and registrations charges by 15 to 20 per cent in Mumbai, depending on the locality in the city. Last year, it did not revise these rates, as the property market was down.
Analysts clearly see the return of investors in the residential market as stock markets have started booming. In the slowdown of 2008-09, investors had vanished from markets such as the National Capital Region.
Religare Capital Markets’ Associate Vice-President P Suman Memani attributes the rebound in property rates to the stock market boom. “Till August 2009, the price rise was moderate. But, after September, when indices shot up, investor and speculative interest returned to the real estate market. Sale prices have gone up by 50 per cent in some cases. It hurts genuine buyers and is not good for the market,’’ Memani says.
Take Parsvnath Developers’ premium project, La Tropicana, in the Civil Lines area of Delhi. Brokers say prices have risen to Rs 12,000 a sq ft, from Rs 8,000 a sq ft in April 2009, a rise of 50 per cent. The developer has sold 415 apartments out of the 450 they have planned. The project is nearing completion.
In Mumbai, in the Oberoi Woods project in Goregaon East, prices have risen 50 per cent in the past nine months, from Rs 10,000 a sq ft in April to Rs 14,000-15,000 a sq ft now. “It is dangerous if prices go up from Rs 2,700 a sq ft to Rs 4,000 a sq ft even if the delivery is four years away,’’ Memani adds.
Realty research firm Liases Foras’ Managing Director, Pankaj Kapoor, is also not happy. “The government is helping the developers to increase prices. They allowed restructuring of loans,” he adds.
Some developers do not agree and say price increases are just a function of the market. “We will go along with interest rates. If the annual interest rate is 10 per cent, we will raise it by 10 per cent. Customers will run away if you increase it irrationally. You have to increase it only to the level where it does not affect your sales,” says Unitech MD Sanjay Chandra.
Adds Hiranandani Constructions’ Managing Director Niranjan Hiranandani: “I think such an increase is only in some isolated cases. If prices are reasonable, volumes will be good. If they are too high, volumes will come down.’’
So, where are the prices headed from now on? "The acid test for the property market will come in March, when the pent-up demand goes away and NRIs pull back. If stock markets continue to do well, demand will sustain. Otherwise, it will not,'' says Vakil of Knight Frank.
(With inputs from Pravda Godbole)
Business Standard, January 22, 2010, Page 2
Raghavendra Kamath / Mumbai
Developers say the rise reflects a rebound in demand and isn’t irrational
Apartment prices at Planet Godrej, a premium residential property developed by Godrej Properties in the tony Mahalaxmi area of Mumbai, had come down to as low as Rs 17,000 to Rs 18,000 a sq ft in the property market slowdown last year.
The flats now sell at Rs 27,000 to Rs 30,000 a sq ft — just short of the peak rate of Rs 32,000 a sq ft in 2007-08.
It’s not the commercial capital alone that has seen real estate prices on fire. Last week, the Jaypee group sold 600 plots on the Greater Noida Expressway, near Delhi, within three days at Rs 36,000 a sq yd (one sq yd equals nine sq ft). Brokers say the plots are now available for only Rs 39,000 a sq yard and will touch Rs 42,000 a sq yard within a few days.
On Pune’s posh Bhandarkar Road, apartment prices have risen 80 per cent in just five months. For example, flats at local developer Avaneesh Construction’s housing project are now available at Rs 9,000 a sq ft, compared to Rs 5,000 in August.
Welcome back to the era of crazy rises in home prices. After a year of sanity, when property developers were reducing rates even in premium areas, it’s a rewind to 2007-08, when prices had more than doubled in as many years on the back of strong buyer and investor demand, as the stock markets boomed.
Then, apartment prices had gone down by 30 per cent from their peak, as home sales had almost come to a standstill in the last few quarters of 2008-09, reflecting a worldwide economic slowing.
Pranay Vakil, chairman of Knight Frank India, a leading property consultant, says: “We have seen an up to 30 per cent rise in home prices in the last six months. A lot of pent-up demand came into the market around Diwali. That, coupled with strong NRI (non-resident Indian) interest, has led to the rebound in prices. Most NRIs have invested in Mumbai property this time, instead of Dubai.''
The NRIs were absent from the property market in 2008-09. Vakil says prices have mostly risen in prime areas, where new projects are being sold out within days and where supply is limited.
For instance, in the Prabhadevi area of Mumbai, if the delivery is three years away, prices have gone up to Rs 21,000 a sq ft. If the project completion is two-three months away, prices are Rs 25,000-Rs 27,000 a sq ft. But, if a house is ready to be moved into, it could go for Rs 30,000 a sq ft, Vakil adds.
The Maharashtra government has been quick to cash in on the rise in property prices and has increased stamp duty and registrations charges by 15 to 20 per cent in Mumbai, depending on the locality in the city. Last year, it did not revise these rates, as the property market was down.
Analysts clearly see the return of investors in the residential market as stock markets have started booming. In the slowdown of 2008-09, investors had vanished from markets such as the National Capital Region.
Religare Capital Markets’ Associate Vice-President P Suman Memani attributes the rebound in property rates to the stock market boom. “Till August 2009, the price rise was moderate. But, after September, when indices shot up, investor and speculative interest returned to the real estate market. Sale prices have gone up by 50 per cent in some cases. It hurts genuine buyers and is not good for the market,’’ Memani says.
Take Parsvnath Developers’ premium project, La Tropicana, in the Civil Lines area of Delhi. Brokers say prices have risen to Rs 12,000 a sq ft, from Rs 8,000 a sq ft in April 2009, a rise of 50 per cent. The developer has sold 415 apartments out of the 450 they have planned. The project is nearing completion.
In Mumbai, in the Oberoi Woods project in Goregaon East, prices have risen 50 per cent in the past nine months, from Rs 10,000 a sq ft in April to Rs 14,000-15,000 a sq ft now. “It is dangerous if prices go up from Rs 2,700 a sq ft to Rs 4,000 a sq ft even if the delivery is four years away,’’ Memani adds.
Realty research firm Liases Foras’ Managing Director, Pankaj Kapoor, is also not happy. “The government is helping the developers to increase prices. They allowed restructuring of loans,” he adds.
Some developers do not agree and say price increases are just a function of the market. “We will go along with interest rates. If the annual interest rate is 10 per cent, we will raise it by 10 per cent. Customers will run away if you increase it irrationally. You have to increase it only to the level where it does not affect your sales,” says Unitech MD Sanjay Chandra.
Adds Hiranandani Constructions’ Managing Director Niranjan Hiranandani: “I think such an increase is only in some isolated cases. If prices are reasonable, volumes will be good. If they are too high, volumes will come down.’’
So, where are the prices headed from now on? "The acid test for the property market will come in March, when the pent-up demand goes away and NRIs pull back. If stock markets continue to do well, demand will sustain. Otherwise, it will not,'' says Vakil of Knight Frank.
(With inputs from Pravda Godbole)
A small hike in CRR will not hurt
A small hike in CRR will not hurt
Hindu Business Line, January 22, 2010, Page 6
Will reduce liquidity, ease inflation concerns: Naina Lal Kidwai.
Our Bureau, New Delhi
Pointing to the high inflation and sufficient liquidity in the system, HSBC India Country Head, Ms Naina Lal Kidwai, said on Thursday that the Reserve Bank of India has room to increase the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points. CRR is the amount of money that banks have to keep with the RBI. The central bank is expected to make its monetary policy review announcement on January 29.
Ms Kidwai, however, cautioned against withdrawing the stimulus in a hurry as it was important to sustain the growth momentum. She also said according to HSBC research, the country would grow by over 7.5 per cent this fiscal and 8.5 per cent in the coming one.
“There is a lot of liquidity in banks, over Rs 80,000 crore. It may be needed in the longer term as projects and credit off-take go up. But there is room for some of it to be mopped up in the near term. A small CRR hike of 0.25 per cent would mean just about Rs 8,000 crores going out of the system. It doesn't hurt anybody or destroy the growth momentum,” Ms Kidwai told presspersons here on the sidelines of a Ficci-event on microfinance.
Noting that high inflation is a concern, she said a CRR hike would signal an important change, but may not upset the applecart.
Asked about the possibility of withdrawal of the stimulus announced by the Government and the RBI to counter the economic slowdown, she said, “The desire of our policy makers has to be to ensure that India stays on its growth trajectory. I don't think we should be in a hurry to withdraw the stimulus because it is carrying growth forward.”
Ms Kidwai said in due course of time, the stimulus will have to be rolled back bearing in mind the fiscal deficit.
On interest rates, she said, “I don't think interest rates are going to go up hugely in a hurry. But it might increase in the next six months.”
On the banks' credit growth, Ms Kidwai said it will definitely be lower than that of last year. “Last year companies had no other recourse to funds than the banks. But every corporate has turned to the capital markets in the last six months,” she said
“However, I believe corporates will begin to turn back to the banks. There is every indication that companies are looking at capacity addition,” she added.
Hindu Business Line, January 22, 2010, Page 6
Will reduce liquidity, ease inflation concerns: Naina Lal Kidwai.
Our Bureau, New Delhi
Pointing to the high inflation and sufficient liquidity in the system, HSBC India Country Head, Ms Naina Lal Kidwai, said on Thursday that the Reserve Bank of India has room to increase the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points. CRR is the amount of money that banks have to keep with the RBI. The central bank is expected to make its monetary policy review announcement on January 29.
Ms Kidwai, however, cautioned against withdrawing the stimulus in a hurry as it was important to sustain the growth momentum. She also said according to HSBC research, the country would grow by over 7.5 per cent this fiscal and 8.5 per cent in the coming one.
“There is a lot of liquidity in banks, over Rs 80,000 crore. It may be needed in the longer term as projects and credit off-take go up. But there is room for some of it to be mopped up in the near term. A small CRR hike of 0.25 per cent would mean just about Rs 8,000 crores going out of the system. It doesn't hurt anybody or destroy the growth momentum,” Ms Kidwai told presspersons here on the sidelines of a Ficci-event on microfinance.
Noting that high inflation is a concern, she said a CRR hike would signal an important change, but may not upset the applecart.
Asked about the possibility of withdrawal of the stimulus announced by the Government and the RBI to counter the economic slowdown, she said, “The desire of our policy makers has to be to ensure that India stays on its growth trajectory. I don't think we should be in a hurry to withdraw the stimulus because it is carrying growth forward.”
Ms Kidwai said in due course of time, the stimulus will have to be rolled back bearing in mind the fiscal deficit.
On interest rates, she said, “I don't think interest rates are going to go up hugely in a hurry. But it might increase in the next six months.”
On the banks' credit growth, Ms Kidwai said it will definitely be lower than that of last year. “Last year companies had no other recourse to funds than the banks. But every corporate has turned to the capital markets in the last six months,” she said
“However, I believe corporates will begin to turn back to the banks. There is every indication that companies are looking at capacity addition,” she added.
ICICI Bank sees 25% rise in home, auto loans disbursals
ICICI Bank sees 25% rise in home, auto loans disbursals
Hindu Business Line, January 22, 2010, Page 7
Our Bureau, Mumbai
In the third quarter ICICI Bank earned a profit of Rs 202 crore from the sale of 81 per cent stake in its Point-of-Sales terminals business to First Data Corporation. This boosted its other income.
The home and auto loan segments have seen a pick up with disbursements increasing by 25 per cent. The retail loan book now accounts for 45 per cent of the total asset portfolio, said Ms Chanda Kochhar, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, ICICI Bank.
Though the ratio of non-performing assets to total assets increased, the provisioning is lower, which is an indication of the improvement in asset quality, Ms Kochhar said. Provisions declined marginally to Rs 1,002 crore (Rs 1,008 crore).
The provisioning coverage ratio now stands at 62 per cent with technical write offs.
The bank has received licenses for 580 branches and will be opening them before the end of this fiscal. This will take its network to 2000 by March 2010, Ms Kochhar said.
New Board of Directors
The board of directors of ICICI Bank appointed Mr Homi R. Khusrokhan and Mr V. Sridar as non-Executive Directors, said a press release from the bank.
Mr Khusrokhan retired as the Managing Director of Tata Chemicals Ltd in 2008. He was earlier Managing Director of Tata Tea and Glaxo India Ltd. Mr V. Sridar retired as Chairman and Managing Director of UCO Bank in 2007. Prior to that he was Chairman of the National Housing Bank and Executive Director of UCO Bank.
Mr Khusrokhan and Mr Sridar would hold office up to the date of the next Annual General Meeting, when their appointment would be considered by the shareholders of ICICI Bank.
Mr P.M. Sinha, non-Executive Director of ICICI Bank, today retired from the board, the press release said.
Hindu Business Line, January 22, 2010, Page 7
Our Bureau, Mumbai
In the third quarter ICICI Bank earned a profit of Rs 202 crore from the sale of 81 per cent stake in its Point-of-Sales terminals business to First Data Corporation. This boosted its other income.
The home and auto loan segments have seen a pick up with disbursements increasing by 25 per cent. The retail loan book now accounts for 45 per cent of the total asset portfolio, said Ms Chanda Kochhar, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, ICICI Bank.
Though the ratio of non-performing assets to total assets increased, the provisioning is lower, which is an indication of the improvement in asset quality, Ms Kochhar said. Provisions declined marginally to Rs 1,002 crore (Rs 1,008 crore).
The provisioning coverage ratio now stands at 62 per cent with technical write offs.
The bank has received licenses for 580 branches and will be opening them before the end of this fiscal. This will take its network to 2000 by March 2010, Ms Kochhar said.
New Board of Directors
The board of directors of ICICI Bank appointed Mr Homi R. Khusrokhan and Mr V. Sridar as non-Executive Directors, said a press release from the bank.
Mr Khusrokhan retired as the Managing Director of Tata Chemicals Ltd in 2008. He was earlier Managing Director of Tata Tea and Glaxo India Ltd. Mr V. Sridar retired as Chairman and Managing Director of UCO Bank in 2007. Prior to that he was Chairman of the National Housing Bank and Executive Director of UCO Bank.
Mr Khusrokhan and Mr Sridar would hold office up to the date of the next Annual General Meeting, when their appointment would be considered by the shareholders of ICICI Bank.
Mr P.M. Sinha, non-Executive Director of ICICI Bank, today retired from the board, the press release said.
The reality on rates
The reality on rates
Hindu Business Line, January 22, 2010, Page 8
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By its own admission, the RBI's easy money policy has not worked as well as it should have. A reversal of the policy now would simply ratchet up an already high real interest rate regime.
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One issue that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should consider in its third quarter review due next week is the impact of administered rates on its key monetary policy changes. The Governor, Dr D. Subbarao, has repeatedly pointed to the way administered rates on small savings, among other factors, jammed its signals for cheaper lending by banks. The interest rate of 8 per cent for deposits under small savings schemes set the floor for banks as a result of which lending rates fell far less than the central bank's own aggressive reductions in the cost of funds called for.
That was last year when the RBI was aggressively pursuing a soft interest rate policy. Now it is set to weigh its options about tightening a bit. Given the headline inflation of around 7 per cent and the likely effects of bountiful liquidity on its upward movement, the natural tendency for Dr Subbarao would be to push the buttons for tighter money so as to skim off any excess demand. However, before doing so, the RBI should recall its critique on administered rates. Despite itself and by its own admission, its easy money policy has not worked as well as it should have in making domestic capital cheap. Under the circumstances, any reversal of the easy money policy now would simply ratchet up an already high real interest rate regime. As it is, the enthusiasm for bank credit is just picking up as the latest data show; sending signals out for dearer money could dampen that pick-up at a time when it is most needed to rev up investment growth. The RBI surely knows that its signals for higher interest rates work far better than those announcing a dip; administered rates after all set the floor not the ceiling. That is exactly why the RBI must view a rate or cash reserve ratio (CRR) hike this month with some reservation. Domestic rates have been historically high, a feature that had Indian firms scurrying for cheaper global capital during the period of high growth till 2008-09. The only way to change that pattern is for the RBI to curb external commercial borrowings or for its signals for softer rates to work effectively.
Dealing with administered rates and government borrowings, whose ever-increasing size also prevent bank rates from falling, is New Delhi's job; it may be easier to control the need for funds than it will be to reduce rates on small savings or abolish administered rates altogether. But as financial services acquire sophistication, that task too could be tackled without hurting the interests of the small saver.
Hindu Business Line, January 22, 2010, Page 8
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By its own admission, the RBI's easy money policy has not worked as well as it should have. A reversal of the policy now would simply ratchet up an already high real interest rate regime.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One issue that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should consider in its third quarter review due next week is the impact of administered rates on its key monetary policy changes. The Governor, Dr D. Subbarao, has repeatedly pointed to the way administered rates on small savings, among other factors, jammed its signals for cheaper lending by banks. The interest rate of 8 per cent for deposits under small savings schemes set the floor for banks as a result of which lending rates fell far less than the central bank's own aggressive reductions in the cost of funds called for.
That was last year when the RBI was aggressively pursuing a soft interest rate policy. Now it is set to weigh its options about tightening a bit. Given the headline inflation of around 7 per cent and the likely effects of bountiful liquidity on its upward movement, the natural tendency for Dr Subbarao would be to push the buttons for tighter money so as to skim off any excess demand. However, before doing so, the RBI should recall its critique on administered rates. Despite itself and by its own admission, its easy money policy has not worked as well as it should have in making domestic capital cheap. Under the circumstances, any reversal of the easy money policy now would simply ratchet up an already high real interest rate regime. As it is, the enthusiasm for bank credit is just picking up as the latest data show; sending signals out for dearer money could dampen that pick-up at a time when it is most needed to rev up investment growth. The RBI surely knows that its signals for higher interest rates work far better than those announcing a dip; administered rates after all set the floor not the ceiling. That is exactly why the RBI must view a rate or cash reserve ratio (CRR) hike this month with some reservation. Domestic rates have been historically high, a feature that had Indian firms scurrying for cheaper global capital during the period of high growth till 2008-09. The only way to change that pattern is for the RBI to curb external commercial borrowings or for its signals for softer rates to work effectively.
Dealing with administered rates and government borrowings, whose ever-increasing size also prevent bank rates from falling, is New Delhi's job; it may be easier to control the need for funds than it will be to reduce rates on small savings or abolish administered rates altogether. But as financial services acquire sophistication, that task too could be tackled without hurting the interests of the small saver.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Banks pulled up for fine on home loan pre-pay
Banks pulled up for fine on home loan pre-pay
Times of India, January 21, 2010, Page 25
New Delhi: Competition watchdog CCI has asked about two dozen banks and housing finance companies, including HDFC, ICICI Bank, and LICHF, to explain their imposing penalty on borrowers for pre-payment of home loans. The commission, according to official sources, has sent notices to major home loan players after examining a report of director general (investigations) which found evidences against banks for misusing their dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements.
"We have sent showcause notices to 20 banks including ICICI Bank, HDFC, LIC Housing Finance, Deutsche Postbank and the Indian Banks' Association. We have also sensitised RBI on how the practice of charging pre-payment penalty is hurting consumers," a senior CCI official said. The commission was scrutinising a complaint filed by a customer against the practice by these banks.
Spokespersons of ICICI Bank, HDFC and LIC Housing Finance could not be reached for comments. The move gives hopes to thousands of borrowers of foreclosing their housing loans without paying penalty. If the penalty is lifted, it may also lead to borrowers' shifting their credit to those lenders offering lower interest.
The CCI, official said, could also penalise lenders for adopting such practices to discourage customers from pre-paying home loans or the the practice could be banned across the industry. HDFC, for example, currently levies pre-payment charges ranging between 0% and 2%. PTI
Times of India, January 21, 2010, Page 25
New Delhi: Competition watchdog CCI has asked about two dozen banks and housing finance companies, including HDFC, ICICI Bank, and LICHF, to explain their imposing penalty on borrowers for pre-payment of home loans. The commission, according to official sources, has sent notices to major home loan players after examining a report of director general (investigations) which found evidences against banks for misusing their dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements.
"We have sent showcause notices to 20 banks including ICICI Bank, HDFC, LIC Housing Finance, Deutsche Postbank and the Indian Banks' Association. We have also sensitised RBI on how the practice of charging pre-payment penalty is hurting consumers," a senior CCI official said. The commission was scrutinising a complaint filed by a customer against the practice by these banks.
Spokespersons of ICICI Bank, HDFC and LIC Housing Finance could not be reached for comments. The move gives hopes to thousands of borrowers of foreclosing their housing loans without paying penalty. If the penalty is lifted, it may also lead to borrowers' shifting their credit to those lenders offering lower interest.
The CCI, official said, could also penalise lenders for adopting such practices to discourage customers from pre-paying home loans or the the practice could be banned across the industry. HDFC, for example, currently levies pre-payment charges ranging between 0% and 2%. PTI
Banks get notices for penalty on home loan pre-payment
Banks get notices for penalty on home loan pre-payment
Business Standard, January 21, 2010, Section II, Page 14
Press Trust of India, New Delhi
The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has asked about two dozen banks and housing finance companies, including SBI, HDFC, ICICI Bank and LICHF, to explain their move of imposing penalty on borrowers for pre-payment of home loans.
The Commission, according to official sources, has sent notices to major home loan players after examining a report of Director General (Investigations) which found evidences against banks, which also include public sector lenders Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda, for misusing their dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements. "We have sent showcause notices to 20 banks, including ICICI Bank, HDFC, LIC Housing Finance, Deutsche Postbank and the Indian Banks' Association. We have also sensitised the Reserve Bank on how the practice of charging pre-payment penalty is hurting consumers," a senior CCI official said.
The competition watchdog was scrutinizing a customer complaint against the practice. However spokespersons of ICICI Bank, HDFC and LICHF could not be reached for comments.
The move gives hope to thousands of borrowers who want to close their home loans without paying penalty. If the penalty is lifted, it may also lead to borrowers’ shifting their accounts to lenders offering lower interest rates. The commission could peanlise the lenders for adopting such practices or the practice could be banned across the industry, according to the official.
Market leader HDFC, for example, currently levies pre-payment charges ranging between zero and two per cent of the amount pre-paid by a borrower.
The pre-payment penalties are imposed to discourage customers from retiring their debts before the scheduled date. Some lenders charge only if the customer seeks refinancing the loan by taking money at a lower rate from some other entity.
Housing Loan outstanding at the end of March 2009, rose to Rs 2,63,235 crore, compared to Rs 2,52,932 crore at the end of 2007-08.
Business Standard, January 21, 2010, Section II, Page 14
Press Trust of India, New Delhi
The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has asked about two dozen banks and housing finance companies, including SBI, HDFC, ICICI Bank and LICHF, to explain their move of imposing penalty on borrowers for pre-payment of home loans.
The Commission, according to official sources, has sent notices to major home loan players after examining a report of Director General (Investigations) which found evidences against banks, which also include public sector lenders Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda, for misusing their dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements. "We have sent showcause notices to 20 banks, including ICICI Bank, HDFC, LIC Housing Finance, Deutsche Postbank and the Indian Banks' Association. We have also sensitised the Reserve Bank on how the practice of charging pre-payment penalty is hurting consumers," a senior CCI official said.
The competition watchdog was scrutinizing a customer complaint against the practice. However spokespersons of ICICI Bank, HDFC and LICHF could not be reached for comments.
The move gives hope to thousands of borrowers who want to close their home loans without paying penalty. If the penalty is lifted, it may also lead to borrowers’ shifting their accounts to lenders offering lower interest rates. The commission could peanlise the lenders for adopting such practices or the practice could be banned across the industry, according to the official.
Market leader HDFC, for example, currently levies pre-payment charges ranging between zero and two per cent of the amount pre-paid by a borrower.
The pre-payment penalties are imposed to discourage customers from retiring their debts before the scheduled date. Some lenders charge only if the customer seeks refinancing the loan by taking money at a lower rate from some other entity.
Housing Loan outstanding at the end of March 2009, rose to Rs 2,63,235 crore, compared to Rs 2,52,932 crore at the end of 2007-08.
High inflation, a concern: Pranab
High inflation, a concern: Pranab
The Hindu Business Line, January 21, 2010, Page 21
Our Bureau, New Delhi
The Finance Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, today said that high inflation is a matter of concern and hinted that more steps are on the cards to check rising prices.
“It (inflation) is a matter of concern. Cabinet Secretary has held a meeting and certain steps are being taken,” Mr Mukherjee told reporters on the sidelines of rural development conference here today.
Driven by high food prices, India's wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation surged to 7.31 per cent in December from 4.78 per cent in the previous month.
The Committee of Secretaries, headed by the Cabinet Secretary, Mr K.M. Chandrasekhar, had on Tuesday reviewed the situation on prices as well as availability of essential commodities. Annual food inflation for the week ended January 2 stood at 17.28 per cent, latest official data showed.
Mr Mukherjee pointed out that the Government had already liberalised imports to meet shortage of essential commodities. “We have also ensured availability of wheat and rice in the market by offloading through FCI,” he said.
The Finance Minister also said that the Government was constantly monitoring the price situation of essential commodities.
The Hindu Business Line, January 21, 2010, Page 21
Our Bureau, New Delhi
The Finance Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, today said that high inflation is a matter of concern and hinted that more steps are on the cards to check rising prices.
“It (inflation) is a matter of concern. Cabinet Secretary has held a meeting and certain steps are being taken,” Mr Mukherjee told reporters on the sidelines of rural development conference here today.
Driven by high food prices, India's wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation surged to 7.31 per cent in December from 4.78 per cent in the previous month.
The Committee of Secretaries, headed by the Cabinet Secretary, Mr K.M. Chandrasekhar, had on Tuesday reviewed the situation on prices as well as availability of essential commodities. Annual food inflation for the week ended January 2 stood at 17.28 per cent, latest official data showed.
Mr Mukherjee pointed out that the Government had already liberalised imports to meet shortage of essential commodities. “We have also ensured availability of wheat and rice in the market by offloading through FCI,” he said.
The Finance Minister also said that the Government was constantly monitoring the price situation of essential commodities.
No PAN card may cost 20% more tax
No PAN card may cost 20% more tax
Financial Express, January 21, 2010, Page 2
fe Bureau, New Delhi
If you don’t have a permanent account number (PAN), be prepared for paying higher income tax at source from the next fiscal. According to a government notification, “Tax at higher of the prescribed rate or 20% will be deducted on all transactions liable to TDS, where the PAN of the deductee is not available,” and the new provision will become applicable with effect from April 1, 2010.
All assessees will have to quote their PAN in their correspondences, bills, vouchers and other documents sent to each other. The finance ministry notification said all deductors should intimate their deductees to obtain and furnish their PAN so as to avoid TDS at a higher rate. Also, all non-residents in respect of payments or remittances liable to TDS will comply with the new norm. “All deductees, including non-residents having transactions in India liable to TDS, are advised to obtain PAN by March 31, 2010 and communicate the same to their deductors before tax is actually deducted on transactions after that date,” the ministry said.
Assessees who do not have PAN will also not get certificate from assessing officer about lower or no tax liability.
Financial Express, January 21, 2010, Page 2
fe Bureau, New Delhi
If you don’t have a permanent account number (PAN), be prepared for paying higher income tax at source from the next fiscal. According to a government notification, “Tax at higher of the prescribed rate or 20% will be deducted on all transactions liable to TDS, where the PAN of the deductee is not available,” and the new provision will become applicable with effect from April 1, 2010.
All assessees will have to quote their PAN in their correspondences, bills, vouchers and other documents sent to each other. The finance ministry notification said all deductors should intimate their deductees to obtain and furnish their PAN so as to avoid TDS at a higher rate. Also, all non-residents in respect of payments or remittances liable to TDS will comply with the new norm. “All deductees, including non-residents having transactions in India liable to TDS, are advised to obtain PAN by March 31, 2010 and communicate the same to their deductors before tax is actually deducted on transactions after that date,” the ministry said.
Assessees who do not have PAN will also not get certificate from assessing officer about lower or no tax liability.
Realty builds on revival, brick by brick
Realty builds on revival, brick by brick
Financial Express, January 21, 2010, Page 14
Nikita Upadhyay
The realty sector, which was hit by the slowdown in purchases, could well be at the cusp of a revival, highlight December 2009 earnings. Industry analysts reckon that signs of revival in property volumes are evident. The harbinger could well be price rises in certain locations in Mumbai, where developers have sought prices that match the March 2008 peak levels.
However, a Motilal Oswal Securities (MOSL) report suggests that volumes are unlikely to surge in the near term unless prices moderate by 5-8% from the current level. Several suburban projects in Mumbai have been delayed due to lack of approvals and developers have been faced with pressure from customers demanding refunds. Home buyers are shifting focus to ready-to-move-in projects or projects nearing completion, says the report.
Even with lower volumes, sales seem to be flowing at a steady pace in the National Capital Region (NCR), despite price increases. “Prices increased by 5-10% across key projects since August, 2009. Prices in some key areas in South Delhi have moved to new highs. Demand from non-resident Indians is a demand driver in the NCR,” adds the report.
South India also witnessed some recovery with sales gaining momentum in Bangalore and Chennai. Recovery in Bangalore picked up steam as the December, 2009, quarter progressed. “Sales volumes have gained momentum over the past few months, with transactions having increased by about 40% on a yearly basis. Momentum of new launches and sales continues, however, due to excessive supply and high inventories, prices are unlikely to increase in the near term,” pointed out the report.
The December, 2009, quarter has also seen a strong momentum in launches. According to Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (JLLM), while new launches from January to March, 2009, in seven key metro cities totalled to 24,400 units, new launches in April to June, 2009, stood at 42,458 units. Tier-1 cities of Delhi and Mumbai accounted for almost 64% of the launches.
The market has started to re-look at realty stocks closely. The central bank’s policy was a cautious one. However, in the current year the tide seems to have changed and the real-estate companies are no longer pariahs. Godrej Properties managed to raise Rs 500 crore and a decent listing gain of around 15%.
According to ICICI Securities, revival in equity and real-estate markets may lead developers, including Emaar MGF, Lodha Developers, DB Realty, Sahara Prime City and Ambience, to target primary markets. “These firms could potentially raise Rs 12,000 crore in March, 2009, quarter. We believe with recent price correction in listed real estate companies, they offer a better opportunity for investment at current prices,” the report says.
As the recovery in the residential properties saw strong volume and price momentum, the same for the commercial and retail vertical is daunting. “While leasing is yet to pick up strongly, the commercial and retail verticals are set to revive over next 6-9 months, noted the MOSL report.
Another report from ICICI Securities mentions that both commercial and retail segments continue to lag. “We do not expect any pick-up in the year 2009-10. We believe the uptrend will continue, gaining from increase in housing demand, affordable home loan interest rates and timely execution,” said the report.
Financial Express, January 21, 2010, Page 14
Nikita Upadhyay
The realty sector, which was hit by the slowdown in purchases, could well be at the cusp of a revival, highlight December 2009 earnings. Industry analysts reckon that signs of revival in property volumes are evident. The harbinger could well be price rises in certain locations in Mumbai, where developers have sought prices that match the March 2008 peak levels.
However, a Motilal Oswal Securities (MOSL) report suggests that volumes are unlikely to surge in the near term unless prices moderate by 5-8% from the current level. Several suburban projects in Mumbai have been delayed due to lack of approvals and developers have been faced with pressure from customers demanding refunds. Home buyers are shifting focus to ready-to-move-in projects or projects nearing completion, says the report.
Even with lower volumes, sales seem to be flowing at a steady pace in the National Capital Region (NCR), despite price increases. “Prices increased by 5-10% across key projects since August, 2009. Prices in some key areas in South Delhi have moved to new highs. Demand from non-resident Indians is a demand driver in the NCR,” adds the report.
South India also witnessed some recovery with sales gaining momentum in Bangalore and Chennai. Recovery in Bangalore picked up steam as the December, 2009, quarter progressed. “Sales volumes have gained momentum over the past few months, with transactions having increased by about 40% on a yearly basis. Momentum of new launches and sales continues, however, due to excessive supply and high inventories, prices are unlikely to increase in the near term,” pointed out the report.
The December, 2009, quarter has also seen a strong momentum in launches. According to Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (JLLM), while new launches from January to March, 2009, in seven key metro cities totalled to 24,400 units, new launches in April to June, 2009, stood at 42,458 units. Tier-1 cities of Delhi and Mumbai accounted for almost 64% of the launches.
The market has started to re-look at realty stocks closely. The central bank’s policy was a cautious one. However, in the current year the tide seems to have changed and the real-estate companies are no longer pariahs. Godrej Properties managed to raise Rs 500 crore and a decent listing gain of around 15%.
According to ICICI Securities, revival in equity and real-estate markets may lead developers, including Emaar MGF, Lodha Developers, DB Realty, Sahara Prime City and Ambience, to target primary markets. “These firms could potentially raise Rs 12,000 crore in March, 2009, quarter. We believe with recent price correction in listed real estate companies, they offer a better opportunity for investment at current prices,” the report says.
As the recovery in the residential properties saw strong volume and price momentum, the same for the commercial and retail vertical is daunting. “While leasing is yet to pick up strongly, the commercial and retail verticals are set to revive over next 6-9 months, noted the MOSL report.
Another report from ICICI Securities mentions that both commercial and retail segments continue to lag. “We do not expect any pick-up in the year 2009-10. We believe the uptrend will continue, gaining from increase in housing demand, affordable home loan interest rates and timely execution,” said the report.
Chinese banks told to curb lending after concerns of overheating
Chinese banks told to curb lending after concerns of overheating
Financial Express, January 21, 2010, Page 20
Bloomberg, Shanghai, Beijing
Chinese authorities ordered some big banks to curb lending for the rest of January, intensifying their efforts to prevent the world’s third-largest economy from overheating.
The news on Wednesday weighed down stocks in Asia and Europe and oil fell toward $78 a barrel on fears that demand in China, the world economy’s main source of growth, may now slow down as authorities tighten policy.
China’s central bank told some banks, including Citic Bank and Everbright Bank, to increase their reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point, banking sources told Reuters.
A surge of new lending in January has triggered a series of intensifying steps by authorities to rid the financial system of excess cash that can fuel inflation and asset bubbles. Last week, the central bank raised bank reserve requirements for the first time since June 2008. “The question now is not whether we need to control credit and money supply but when and how to control it,” said Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas in Beijing. “Policy will not be a straight line.”
Chinese banks lent 1.1 trillion yuan ($161 billion) in the first half of January, sources said, citing central bank data. That puts total new loans in January on track for the highest since June 2009, when banks doled out 1.5 trillion yuan in new lending.
The top four banks together lent more than 500 billion yuan during the same period, the sources said. Last year, Chinese banks lent a record 9.6 trillion yuan. The surge, combined with Beijing’s 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan, helped kick-start the economy after a slump, but aroused investor fears of overheating. Data due on Thursday is expected to again show double-digit quarterly GDP growth.
Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at a government think tank, said consumer inflation has accelerated a lot in December and would likely push policymakers to raise interest rates by the middle of the year. There were conflicting accounts of what exactly authorities would do. The official China securities journal cited unidentified banking sources as saying that some banks had been told to stop all lending for the rest of the month. However, a source at the China Banking Regulatory Commission, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the CBRC had not ordered banks to halt lending for the rest of January, though it continued to crack down on lenders that do not meet criteria.
“It is our long-standing principle that banks that do not meet regulatory requirements must not lend any more,” the source said. In any case, after last week’s increase in bank reserve requirements, a rise in 1-year bill yields, and steps to root out speculation in the property market, the message from authorities is clear: fast growth in credits and money supply will not be tolerated because the stakes are too high.
Financial Express, January 21, 2010, Page 20
Bloomberg, Shanghai, Beijing
Chinese authorities ordered some big banks to curb lending for the rest of January, intensifying their efforts to prevent the world’s third-largest economy from overheating.
The news on Wednesday weighed down stocks in Asia and Europe and oil fell toward $78 a barrel on fears that demand in China, the world economy’s main source of growth, may now slow down as authorities tighten policy.
China’s central bank told some banks, including Citic Bank and Everbright Bank, to increase their reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point, banking sources told Reuters.
A surge of new lending in January has triggered a series of intensifying steps by authorities to rid the financial system of excess cash that can fuel inflation and asset bubbles. Last week, the central bank raised bank reserve requirements for the first time since June 2008. “The question now is not whether we need to control credit and money supply but when and how to control it,” said Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas in Beijing. “Policy will not be a straight line.”
Chinese banks lent 1.1 trillion yuan ($161 billion) in the first half of January, sources said, citing central bank data. That puts total new loans in January on track for the highest since June 2009, when banks doled out 1.5 trillion yuan in new lending.
The top four banks together lent more than 500 billion yuan during the same period, the sources said. Last year, Chinese banks lent a record 9.6 trillion yuan. The surge, combined with Beijing’s 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan, helped kick-start the economy after a slump, but aroused investor fears of overheating. Data due on Thursday is expected to again show double-digit quarterly GDP growth.
Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at a government think tank, said consumer inflation has accelerated a lot in December and would likely push policymakers to raise interest rates by the middle of the year. There were conflicting accounts of what exactly authorities would do. The official China securities journal cited unidentified banking sources as saying that some banks had been told to stop all lending for the rest of the month. However, a source at the China Banking Regulatory Commission, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the CBRC had not ordered banks to halt lending for the rest of January, though it continued to crack down on lenders that do not meet criteria.
“It is our long-standing principle that banks that do not meet regulatory requirements must not lend any more,” the source said. In any case, after last week’s increase in bank reserve requirements, a rise in 1-year bill yields, and steps to root out speculation in the property market, the message from authorities is clear: fast growth in credits and money supply will not be tolerated because the stakes are too high.
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