Mumbai, Gurgaon residential mkts likely to see oversupply

Mumbai, Gurgaon residential mkts likely to see oversupply
The Economic Times, April 12, 2009, Page 4

Raja Awasthi & Sanjeev Sharma NEW DELHI

THE residential sector, which has already seen a 15-20% price correction in markets across the country this year, is going to witness a significant residential supply over the next 12 to 18 months in two key markets Mumbai and Gurgaon (NCR). The direct implication of the over supply will be that the rentals will come down drastically which could lead to a further price correction over a prolonged period of time (one to two years).

Says Niranjan Hiranandani, MD, Hiranandani Developers: ”There is no over supply in the Mumbai market. In last one month there has been a good sale of apartment as far as Mumbai market goes. There was a short phase and thing are changing. There has been softening of prices, but things will look up from May onwards. This is all a temporary slowdown and the market will pick up.”

Morgan Stanley Research Asia Pacific reveals that in the next few months mid Mumbai micro market will get six to seven lakh million sq ft of residential space as compared to negligible delivery over the last couple of years. In fact the Mumbai market has seen a 50% rental correction in prime areas from Rs 2 lakh for a three BHK in 3Q 2008 to Rs 1.1 lakh now. Rohtas Goel CMD, Omaxe Group & president Naredco said: “The low sentiments majority of buyers are in wait and watch policy. After the recent price cut by the developers by squeezing their margins to the minimum level and interest rate cut by banks, we don’t foresee any further price correction in the real estate.”

In fact, in many markets, the level of transactions have gone down drastically, which has resulted in this dip. This is also because residential capital values in some micro markets in the metros have shown a negative growth in the last one quarter.

Says Santhosh Kumar, deputy CEO of Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (JLLM): “In the current real estate scenario, what is being observed is a stabilization of select markets. A consistent upswing is not possible in any market. When a large level of supply is in the offering. Real estate markets have observed high growth levels in the recent past. However, in certain areas, market stabilization has been observed. This indicates that there are not many buyers for the prices quoted for various real estate typologies at this point of time.”

In various markets, despite a slowdown in demand, essentially from the end-user and speculative investors, developers have refrained from reducing rates. But both in Mumbai and Gurgoan now developers are offering 25% to 30% discount on the market rate. Sales in secondary markets have also taken a beating with very few transactions taking place at relatively lower price points than market expectations.