Met confirms below normal rainfall fears

Met confirms below normal rainfall fears
The Economic Times, June 25, 2009, Page 1

Our Bureau NEW DELHI

FINALLY, the met department has changed its mind on the rains: this year’s south-west monsoon would be below normal for the country as a whole—for the first time in four years—and not normal as forecast earlier.

The silver lining is that there is little chance of a drought, with rains in July-August expected to make up for the initial deficit in the north-west, the main grain-growing regions of Punjab and Haryana.

Still, the latest official prognosis of the rains, a lifeline to many a sector, spells grief for the economy trying to recover from the fallout of the slowdown. Analysts and industry captains voiced the same concern: poor rains could lower farm output, raise prices and dent rural demand and have a spiralling effect on corporate profitability and market sentiment.

An anxious industry is not pushing the panic button yet, preferring to watch the rains progress. “If the delay in monsoon is for some days, it may not be an issue of concern. However, if the agricultural season misses the monsoon by a considerable time frame, we may have a problem at hand. In both the cases, the government should be prepared to take corrective action in order to ensure that food prices are kept in check,” said Ficci president Harsh Pati Singhania.

The Centre too is keeping a close eye on the progress of the rains. It will meet state agriculture ministers on Thursday in the Capital.

Some states are taking proactive steps to make use of available water via irrigation. The Punjab government has, in this sweltering heat, banned the use of air conditioners in all government offices, boards and corporations with immediate effect till June 30, 2009. This is to ensure 8 hours of uninterrupted power supply in the farm sector for planting paddy.

“Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 4%,” the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) long-range forecast update for the 2009 south-west monsoon said on Wednesday.

Minister of state for science and technology Prithviraj Chavan confirmed the development. “South-west monsoon from June to September is likely to be below normal.”

Both the north-eastern and the peninsular regions of the country are likely to get below normal rains while the north-west would have deficient rains. Central India, which is yet to receive rains, is expected to have a normal monsoon.

The IMD, meanwhile, sought to underplay the role of El Nino in the poor monsoon progress thus far, going to the extent of vehemently denying that any “droughtlike” situation prevailed currently.