US grows fastest in 2 yrs as stimulus takes hold

US grows fastest in 2 yrs as stimulus takes hold
Business Standard, October 26, 2009, Page 8

Bloomberg / Washington

Economy grew at a 3.2 per cent from July through September

The economy in the US probably grew in the third quarter at the fastest pace in two years as government stimulus helped bring an end to the worst recession since the 1930s, economists said before reports this week.

The world’s largest economy grew at a 3.2 per cent pace from July through September after shrinking the previous four quarters, according to the median estimate of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Other reports may show sales of new homes and orders for long-lasting goods increased.

Americans flocked to auto showrooms and real-estate offices last quarter to take advantage of government programs such as “cash-for-clunkers” and tax credits for first-time homebuyers. Growing demand caused stockpiles to keep falling, which will prompt companies to rev up assembly lines and help sustain the recovery into 2010 even as unemployment climbs.

“The recovery is off to a decent but unspectacular start,” said Joe Brusuelas, a director at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “While another large drawdown in inventories will be a drag on third-quarter growth, it sets the stage for a longer and stronger upturn in manufacturing.”

The Commerce Department’s report on gross domestic product is due October 29. The four consecutive decreases through the second quarter marks the longest stretch of declines since quarterly records began in 1947. The economy shrank 3.8 per cent in the 12 months to June, the worst performance in seven decades.

Stocks have rallied as earnings at companies from Caterpillar Inc to Morgan Stanley topped estimates. Profits exceeded expectations at about 80 per cent of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index that have released results, according to Bloomberg data. That marks the highest proportion in data going back to 1993. The S&P 500 closed at a one-year high on October 19.

Consumer spending last quarter probably jumped at a 3.1 per cent annual rate from the previous three months, the biggest gain since the first quarter of 2007, the GDP report is also projected to show.

September readings on household purchases, due from the Commerce Department on October 30, may show the quarter ended on a soft note after the Obama administration’s car incentive expired the month before. Spending probably fell 0.5 per cent last month as car sales slowed after jumping 1.3 per cent in August, the biggest gain since 2001.

The so-called cash-for-clunkers program offered buyers discounts of as much as $4,500 to trade in older cars and trucks for new, more fuel-efficient vehicles. The plan boosted sales by about 700,000 vehicles, according to a Transportation Department estimate.