I feel it will take two years to return to sustainable high growth rate of 8.5-9 per cent. - Dr Arvind Virmani, Executive Director, IMF
The Hindu Business Line, January 1, 2010, Page 6
As far as India's economic growth for 2010-11 is concerned, I expect it to be about 8 per cent with an upward bias. For the current fiscal, I stick to the projection made in the Economic Survey, which is 7+/- 0.75 per cent.
If people are planning to invest in manufacturing, industry and real estate, in my view, they should not assume a growth rate of more than 9 per cent in next 5-10 years. They should plan on that basis.
If you are little cautious you should assume 8.5-9 per cent. A GDP growth of 8.5-9 per cent is the long term sustainable growth rate on the basis of which you should make plans for investments in India.
In 2009-10, despite the strong show in Q2, we could end up lower than 7 per cent GDP growth. I still would not put too much faith on what people are saying about agriculture. You could have another adjustment in agriculture. The uncertainty remains. I can't predict.
India will be back to the high growth path from 2011-12. I feel it will take two years to return to sustainable high growth rate of 8.5-9 per cent. It's not likely that given the global situation (state of the US economy primarily and the EU and Japan secondarily), we will get back to the high growth path in 2010-11 itself. The weakness of the global system does affect the speed at which we get back to the high growth path.
(As told to K.R. Srivats, New Delhi)
The Hindu Business Line, January 1, 2010, Page 6
As far as India's economic growth for 2010-11 is concerned, I expect it to be about 8 per cent with an upward bias. For the current fiscal, I stick to the projection made in the Economic Survey, which is 7+/- 0.75 per cent.
If people are planning to invest in manufacturing, industry and real estate, in my view, they should not assume a growth rate of more than 9 per cent in next 5-10 years. They should plan on that basis.
If you are little cautious you should assume 8.5-9 per cent. A GDP growth of 8.5-9 per cent is the long term sustainable growth rate on the basis of which you should make plans for investments in India.
In 2009-10, despite the strong show in Q2, we could end up lower than 7 per cent GDP growth. I still would not put too much faith on what people are saying about agriculture. You could have another adjustment in agriculture. The uncertainty remains. I can't predict.
India will be back to the high growth path from 2011-12. I feel it will take two years to return to sustainable high growth rate of 8.5-9 per cent. It's not likely that given the global situation (state of the US economy primarily and the EU and Japan secondarily), we will get back to the high growth path in 2010-11 itself. The weakness of the global system does affect the speed at which we get back to the high growth path.
(As told to K.R. Srivats, New Delhi)
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