Dubai debt crisis will have limited impact

Dubai debt crisis will have limited impact
The Hindu Business Line, Nove 30, 2009, Page 2

Geojit BNP sees rise in NRI inflows in short-term.

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We see Abu Dhabi booming, while Dubai slowing down with a neutralising effect. After the global financial crisis we are seeing more Indian investors putting money in Indian assets than before. Hence, if there is any panic there will only be improvement in our business in the short-term. Mr C.J.George, CEO, Geojit BNP Paribas
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N.K.Kurup, Mumbai

Dubai's debt crisis has rattled markets across the world as the problem revived worries about the health of the global financial system. Although the exposure of Indian companies and banks to the Emirate is negligible, concerns linger about the fallout on the broader economy.

Dubai World, the investment conglomerate of the sheikhdom at the centre of the crisis, has a debt of $59 billion — a major component of Dubai's total debt of $80 billion.

Authorities from Dubai to New Delhi have tried to play down concerns, but there is fear a sovereign debt default - should it happen – could have a cascading effect on the global financial markets.

Broking firm Geojit BNP Paribas has a large presence in the United Arab Emirates. Its West Asian joint venture Barjeel Geojit Securities LLC is headquartered in Dubai. Mr C.J. George, CEO of the firm, spoke to Business Line on the likely impact of Dubai World's current debt trouble on Indian markets, NRI inflows and on his own business in the Emirates. Excerpts:

Dubai World's debt crisis impacted the Indian markets on Friday. Will it continue to haunt the Indian markets?

The panic reaction we saw during the opening of the market on Friday was on account of the absence of any firm indication from Gulf markets due to Eid holidays. International investors do not perhaps worry too much about the impact on Indian markets. India has never been bracketed with GCC countries in the past and, hence, there will be more mature reaction in equity markets in the days to come.

Do you expect major selling by FIIs in the Indian market?

One of the most significant outcomes of crisis-ridden global financial markets during the last two years has been a growing recognition of India's uniqueness. FIIs have a more balanced and knowledgeable view of India today than in 2008. Hence, there is unlikely to be major FII selling. If that happens, there are others waiting to buy.

Will the crisis impact the NRI inflows?

There will be increase in inflows in the short-term since NRIs may consider India as a safe haven than domestic bank deposits in UAE and perhaps GCC. However, any protracted crisis can lead to job losses and business closures with impact in the medium term. In the long term, Dubai will continue to attract talent from India apart from unskilled workers, as the city will continue to be the centre of a booming GCC as long as oil is a precious commodity and Dubai is a tax haven with modern infrastructure.

What will be the impact on Kerala given the number of people from the State employed in Dubai and other Gulf countries?

During the last one year we have seen some amount of job losses leading to the return of many NRIs from Kerala. However, as Abu Dhabi started massive construction projects, a large number of them have shifted base from Dubai to Abu Dhabi. Today construction workers are shifting to Saudi Arabia as well where there is a real estate boom driven by real residential demand.

I am of the view that the worst is over for Kerala, as the current crisis is likely to be managed between Dubai and the federal government. The UAE and GCC cannot afford to leave this debt restructuring unsuccessful particularly with ample resources in federal hands.

Is Dubai World's trouble just a trigger? Do you think it could lead to a major crisis? Will it escalate to other Emirates?

Fortunately, the real estate bubble was limited to the Emirate of Dubai only and, hence, I am of the view that this will be the end of crisis for Dubai. The other Emirates are relatively stronger in terms of debt obligations. GCC countries are in better shape today after the recovery in oil prices and, hence, Dubai will continue to retain the position as a global centre in the region leveraging the proximity of Indian sub- continent.

India will be to Dubai what China is to Singapore, unless “one day” Mumbai claims that position. In short, this debt crisis will have only sentimental impact on other GCC countries and limited impact on other Emirates. This observation is on the strong circumstantial evidence that the federal government of UAE will have to support Dubai as the domestic banks have a state guarantee.

How do you see it impacting your business in West Asia?

Barjeel Geojit has been operating in the UAE for the last eight years and the customer segment is predominantly Indian expatriates. We see Abu Dhabi booming, while Dubai slowing down with a neutralising effect. After the global financial crisis we are seeing more Indian investors putting money in Indian assets than before. Hence, if there is any panic there will only be improvement in our business in the short-term. However, in the unlikely event of this development leading to a protracted crisis and job losses at higher levels there will be an impact on our business too.

Will it lead to a liquidity crunch in the global economy, given the fact many central banks are planning to exit from accommodative monetary policy?

If this had happened a year ago it would have been perhaps disastrous than today as the amount involved can now be managed within GCC itself with the bounceback of oil. Moreover, the real estate bubble in Dubai was recognised by global financiers sufficiently long ago when the global real estate market started to crack. There is unlikely to be a second leg of liquidity crunch emanating from this event.

What do you make out of Dubai World's move?

Dubai World's move to restructure the debt should be seen as a genuine effort to restructure both debt and business since the announcement talked about just six month's “standstill” whereas the $60 billion consists of different maturities up to even 2014.
Currently, while the media around the world and international investors are showing panic there is relative calm and confidence internally, perhaps originating from the trust that finally it is a problem of the whole country and not of Dubai alone. Dubai has been growing on the strength of its capability to attract capital and talent globally and they know for sure that Dubai has to continue attracting these scarce resources to remain a vibrant non-oil economy surrounded by oil-rich countries.

Nevertheless, when the stock exchanges open for trading on Monday in Dubai, there will be selling pressure from global investors.

What in your view led to the current crisis?

On the strength of the oil boom in the region, Dubai one among seven emirates of UAE, has been positioning itself as a global centre for finance, trade and tourism due to negligible oil resources at home. During the early years of the current decade seeing growing demand for real estate, the Government started marketing housing projects offering 99 years of residence permit. Such a residence offer for investors in housing projects was neither denied by the Government nor approved. This led to an unprecedented boom in real estate, attracting rich investors from India, Russia, Europe and other places.

Both accounted and unaccounted global money started chasing real estate leading to even “day trading” in real estate.

There were even cases of buying in the morning and selling in the evening! Finally, when the global financial system cracked, the Dubai real estate bubble also crashed. The construction-driven economy was slowing down with highly leveraged projects. Dubai World, the real estate and infrastructure arm of the ruler of Dubai, was excessively leveraged during the boom years and when the demand disappeared had to catch up with debt repayments without positive internal cash flows.

While the boom in real estate collapsed, the federal government finally came out with a clarification that the buyers of real estate can only have six months renewable VISA in place of the highly publicised perception of 99 year's VISA. This was a bolt from the blue which was the last nail.

However, while Dubai was declining, Abu Dhabi, the cash-rich Capital city Emirate started booming on investment-driven by own capital. Abu Dhabi has been a lender of last resort for Dubai with vast oil resources and global financial investments of more than a trillion dollars. Abu Dhabi came out with a landmark announcement a year ago by declaring State guarantee on all bank deposits which led to calm in banking sector.

If Dubai announces any investor-friendly revision of VISA period, it can dramatically change the fortunes of domestic real estate market.